Fantasy Preview – Atlantic Division Part 2 (MTL, OTT, TB, TOR) | Feat. Mike McLaughlin (Left Wing Lock)
Episode 78 of the Fantasy Hockey Hacks Podcast! Fantasy hockey previews roll-on as the Hacks continue with the Atlantic Division (Pt. 2) – Montreal, Ottawa, Tampa Bay and Toronto. Mike McLaughlin from Left Wing Lock joins as a special guest, providing valuable in-depth fantasy analysis! As we do each week, we’ll also check in on John’s list and “hack” our way through this week’s Headlines.
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Highlights:
- Enter to win a Left Wing Lock Draft Kit!
- Tage Thompson signs extension with the Sabres
- Jake Oettinger staying in Dallas
- JT Miller extended in Vancouver
- Can “Goal Caufield” pick up where he left off last season?
- Are the Senators a playoff team next season? 40 goals for DeBrincat?
- Will Steven Stamkos take a step back this season?
- Is 65 goals achievable for Auston Matthews?
- Stutzle staying with Sens
Stay In Touch
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John’s List
If you have been listening to our podcast for a while, you’ve undoubtedly heard about “John’s List”; which is basically John’s $h!t list of players past and present. If you have any suggestions for players/subjects we should add to the list, let us know!
Player TBD – Details
Headlines W/ The Hacks | August 29 – September 5, 2022
The 2021-2022 regular season has wrapped, but if you’re planning to defend your fantasy hockey championship next season be sure to get your draft kit from our partner, Left Wing Lock – Available NOW! We’re giving away a few of these draft kits, starting this week – so be sure to follow us on Twitter (@FHHacks) or Instagram (@FantasyHockeyHacks) to win!
News This Week
- The Buffalo Sabres signed Tage Thompson to a 7-year, $50M ($7.142M AAV) contract extension. The 24-year old was a pending RFA at the end of this season; and set career-highs in points (68), goals (38), assists (30), PIMS (37), SOG (253), PPP (16), PP Share (57.3%), and ATOI (17:53) last season!
Tage Thompson, signed to a 7x$7.1M extension by BUF, is a shoot-first centre who went from being one of the worst finishers in the league to one of the best overnight. Was esp. dangerous off the rush last season. The chance creation is legit. The distance sniping? We’ll see… pic.twitter.com/a5ZD1eAHON
— JFresh (@JFreshHockey) August 30, 2022
- The Minnesota Wild signed Sam Steel to a 1 year, $825K contract on Tuesday. Steel hasn’t shown much offensively to date, scoring no more than 6 goals in each of his 4 seasons in the league.
- Not really fantasy relevant or maybe if you’re a Penguins fan. Mike Sullivan signed a 3 year contract extension with the Penguins on Tuesday. Keeping the dream alive in Pittsburgh!
- Great news Stars fans! Jake Oettinger has signed a 3 year deal worth an AAV of $4 million per season. With the Otter signed now I am sure he will be a high Goalie pick in this year’s drafts.
Yesterday, Jake Oettinger signed a three-year, $12M contract extension with the @DallasStars.
With their franchise goaltender signed, what will a contract look like for RFA Jason Robertson?@JamisonCoyle | @KenDaneykoMSG | #NHLTonight pic.twitter.com/2NtKSoZrAa
— NHL Network (@NHLNetwork) September 2, 2022
- The Winnipeg Jets signed Sam Gagner to a one year 775K aav contract. Not sure if he will be fantasy relevant or not. It will depend on his usage.
- The Edmonton Oilers have signed what should have been their 1st overall pick in 2012, Ryan Murray to a one year 750k aav contract. He won’t be fantasy relevant, but we needed some news items this week.
- We can now put all the JT Miller rumors to bed. Miller signed a 7 year $56 million extension with the Vancouver Canucks.
Vancouver Canucks General Manager Patrik Allvin announced today that the club has agreed to terms with center J.T. Miller on a 7-year contract worth a total $56 million. pic.twitter.com/UuW2G4xhOC
— Vancouver #Canucks (@Canucks) September 2, 2022
- The Montreal Canadiens have signed RFA Kirby Dach to a 4 year $13.5 million dollar contract. This could end up being a very good deal for the Canadiens
- Carey Price will be placed on LTIR today. This move is done to get the Canadiens Cap complaint. Price is not expected to play this season to an ongoing knee injury
- Tim Stutzle and the Ottawa Senators have reached an agreement on an 8 year contract extension worth 66.8 million dollars. Based on this the Sens have some high hopes for the young German.
2022 Atlantic Division (Pt. 2) Fantasy Hockey Preview
Montreal Canadiens
22-49-11 (8th in Atlantic) | GF/GM: 2.66 (27th) | GA/GM: 3.87 (32nd) | GF%: 40.75% (31st) | CF%: 46.52% (29th) | PP%: 13.7% (31st) | PK%: 75.5% (27th)
Schedule Notes: The Montreal Canadiens have 13 back-to-back sets this season, tied for 3rd most with Buffalo, Colorado, Vancouver and Winnipeg. 28% of their games are played on “light days” (fewer than 50% of teams in action).
Key Additions: Kirby Dach (Trade W/ CHI), Evgenii Dadonov (Trade W/ VGK), Sean Monahan (Trade W/ CGY), Mike Matheson (Trade W/ PIT).
Key Departures: Alexandre Romanov (Trade W/ NYI), Jeff Petry (Trade W/ PIT), Shea Weber’s Contract (Trade W/ VGK).
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Top Fantasy Targets
🎯 Cole Caufield, LW/RW | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 115.7 | PTS. PREDICTION: 32 Goals, 62 Points
- Last Season: 43 Pts, 23 G in 67 GP (53-point Pace)
- 35 Pts, 22 G in final 38 games played vs. 8 Pts, 1 G in first 29 games played!
- -24 career-low
- 13 PPP, 54.8% PP Share
- 3-Yr Avg: 51 Pts, 29 G
🎯 Nick Suzuki, LW | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 156.6 | PTS. PREDICTION: 23 Goals, 65 Points
- Last Season: 61 Pts, 21 G in 82 GP (61-point Pace)
- 2.3 SOG/GM, 20 PPP, 89 Hits, 30 PIMs, 62% PP Share, 20:30 TOI career-highs
- 3-Yr Avg: 56 Pts, 19 G
🎯 Brendan Gallagher, LW | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 31.6 | PTS. PREDICTION: 22 Goals, 50 Points
- Last Season: 24 Pts, 17 G in 56 GP (35-point Pace)
- 4.9 iSH% 2.5 SOG/GM career-lows. 3-yr avg (9.1%), career (9.7%)
- 53.3 IPP career-low
- 54 Hits (0.96/GM), 71 PIMs
- 3-Yr Avg: 50 Pts, 24 G
🎯 Josh Anderson, RW | 2022 Yahoo Rank: N/A| PTS. PREDICTION: 20 Goals, 40 Points
- Last Season: 32 Pts, 19 G in 69 GP (38-point Pace)
- 12.6 iSH% slightly over 3-yr avg (10.9%)
- 153 Hits (2.22/GM), 65 PIMs
- 3-Yr Avg: 34 Pts, 21 G
🎯 Mike Hoffman, LW/RW | 2022 Yahoo Rank: N/A | PTS. PREDICTION: 24 Goals, 52 Points
- Last Season: 35 Pts, 16 G in 67 GP (43-point Pace)
- 10.3 iSH% lowest since 2017-2018 (22 goals that season); below 3-yr (12.9%) and career (11.9%) averages.
- ⚠️7.7 tEVSH% lowest since 2018-2019
- 61.4 IPP career-low
- 3-Yr Avg: 57 Pts, 27 G
🎯 Kirby Dach, C/RW | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 172.7 | PTS. PREDICTION: 12 Goals, 45 Points
- Last Season: 26 Pts, 9 G in 70 GP (30-point Pace)
- 116 SOG, 43 PIMs, 6 PPP career-bests
- 50+ point upside if he plays meaningful minutes in the top 6?
- 3-Yr Avg: 32 Pts, 10 G
🎯 Evgenii Dadonov, LW/RW | 2022 Yahoo Rank: N/A | PTS. PREDICTION: 24 Goals, 45 Points
- Last Season: 43 Pts, 20 G in 78 GP (45-point Pace)
- ⚠️11.3 iSH% lowest since 2011-2012
- 3-Yr Avg: 45 Pts, 24 G
🎯 Chris Wideman, D | 2022 Yahoo Rank: N/A | PTS. PREDICTION: 5 Goals, 35 Points
- Last Season: 27 Pts, 4 G in 64 GP (35-point Pace)
- 27 Points, 67 PIMs, 12 PPP, 14:53 TOI career-highs
- Does he get PP1 deployment? Or Mike Matheson?
- 3-Yr Avg: 34 Pts, 5 G
🎯 Jake Allen, G | 2022 Yahoo Rank: N/A | PREDICTION: 48 Starts (59% Net Share), 24 Wins
- Last Season: 9-20-4, 3.30 GAA, .905 SV%, -4.16 GSAx
- 3-Yr Avg: 22-26-8, 2.78 GAA, .911 SV%
🎯 Sam Montembeault, G | 2022 Yahoo Rank: N/A | PREDICTION: 34 Starts (41% Net Share), 11 Wins
- Last Season: 8-18-6, 3.77 GAA, .891 SV%, -20.54 GSAx
- 3-Yr Avg: 15-27-8, 3.65 GAA, .891 SV%
Ottawa Senators
33-42-7 (7th in Atlantic) | GF/GM: 2.73 (26th) | GA/GM: 3.22 (22nd) | GF%: 45.90 (23rd) | CF%: 47.76 (23rd) | PP%: 19.3% (20th) | PK%: 80.3% (13th)
Schedule Notes: The Ottawa Senators have 12 back-to-back sets this season, tied for 5th fewest with Arizona, Florida, Minnesota, New Jersey, and Nashville. 37% of their games are played on “light days” (fewer than 50% of teams in action).
Key Additions: Alex DeBrincat (Trade W/ CHI), Claude Giroux (UFA), Cam Talbot (Trade W/ MIN).
Key Departures: Chris Tierney (FLA), Connor Brown (Trade W/ WSH), Victor Mete (UFA – Tor), Matt Murray (Trade W/ TOR), Filip Gustavsson (Trade W/ Min).
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Top Fantasy Targets
🎯 Brady Tkachuk, LW | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 31.6 | PTS. PREDICTION: 32 Goals, 75 Points
- Last Season: 67 Pts, 30 G in 79 GP (70-point Pace)
- 10.4 iSH% and 288 SOG career-highs
- 3-Yr Avg: 58 Pts, 27 G
🎯 Alex DeBrincat, LW | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 40.3 | PTS. PREDICTION: 40 Goals, 77 Points
- Last Season: 78 Pts, 41 G in 82 GP (78-point Pace)
- 41 G, 3.3 SOG/GM, 270 SOG, 101 Hits, 28 PPP, 71% PP Share, and 20:51 TOI career-highs
- 3-Yr Avg: 72 Pts, 37 G
🎯 Claude Giroux, C/RW | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 55.2 | PTS. PREDICTION: 24 Goals, 69 Points
- Last Season: 64 Pts, 21 G in 75 GP (70-point Pace)
- 60.3 FOW% career-high
- ⚠️7.3 tEVSH% lowest since 2016-2017
- 3-Yr Avg: 66 Pts, 24 G
🎯 Josh Norris, C | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 87.0 | PTS. PREDICTION: 34 Goals, 64 Points
- Last Season: 55 Pts, 35 G in 66 GP (68-point Pace)
- ⚠️20.3 iSH% career-high (18.8% over 125 career games)
- 172 SOG, 79 Hits, 23 PPP, 65.6% PP Share, 18:35 TOI all career-highs.
- 61.1 IPP
- ⚠️13 of 20 assists last season were secondary. 0.40 A2/60, up from 2020-2021.
- 3-Yr Avg: 59 Pts, 34 G
🎯 Drake Batherson, RW | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 83.8 | PTS. PREDICTION: 27 Goals, 72 Points
- Last Season: 44 Pts, 17 G in 46 GP (78-point Pace)
- 0.96 Pts/GM career-high
- 2.4 SOG/GM, 32 PIMs, 18:56 TOI, 63.4% PP Share career-highs
- ⚠️10.6 tEVSH% highest since rookie season (20 GP).
- 3-Yr Avg: 57 Pts, 24 G
🎯 Tim Stutzle, C/LW | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 100.5 | PTS. PREDICTION: 25 Goals, 65 Points
- Last Season: 58 Pts, 22 G in 79 GP (60-point Pace)
- 21 Pts (8 G) in the final 18 games played last season.
- 125 Hits, 37 PIMs career-highs
- 27 PPP, 67.2% PP Share (3:15 TOI). Will he be demoted to PP2?
- 7.5 tEVSH% – potential for positive regression.
- 3-Yr Avg: 54 Pts, 21 G
🎯 Thomas Chabot, D | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 114.4 | PTS. PREDICTION: 12 Goals, 55 Points
- Last Season: 38 Pts, 7 G in 59 GP (53-point Pace)
- 69% PP Share career-high
- 26:09 ATOI the past 3 seasons – LEADS ALL SKATERS in the NHL over that period!
- 3-Yr Avg: 50 Pts, 9 G
🎯 Cam Talbot, G | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 103.2 | PREDICTION: 52 Starts (63% Net Share), 28 Wins
- Last Season: 32-12-4, 2.76 GAA, .911 SV%, -17.06 GSAx
- 3-Yr Avg: 35-17-6, 2.69 GAA, .914 SV%
🎯 Anton Forsberg, G | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 128.3 | PREDICTION: 30 Starts (37% Net Share), 14 Wins
- Last Season: 22-17-4, 2.82 GAA, .917 SV%, 6.83 GSAx
- 3-Yr Avg: 27-23-5, 2.90 GAA, .915 SV%
Tampa Bay Lightning
51-23-8 (3rd in Atlantic) | GF/GM: 3.48 (8th) | GA/GM: 2.78 (6th) | GF%: 55.56 (6th) | CF%: 50.82% (13th) | PP%: 23.9 (8th) | PK%: 80.6 (11th)
Schedule Notes: The Tampa Bay Lightning have 14 back-to-back sets this season, tied for 3rd most with Boston, Carolina, Chicago, Detroit, San Jose, St. Louis, and Toronto. 30% of their games are played on “light days” (fewer than 50% of teams in action).
Key Additions: Haydn Fleury (UFA – SEA), Ian Cole (UFA – CAR), Philippe Meyers (Trade W/ NSH), Vladislav Nemestnikov (UFA – DAL)
Key Departures: Jan Rutta (PIT), Ondrej Palat (UFA – NJD), Ryan McDonagh (Trade W/ NSH).
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Top Fantasy Targets
🎯 Nikita Kucherov, RW | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 9.5 | PTS. PREDICTION: 42 Goals, 110 Points
- Last Season: 69 Pts, 25 G in 47 GP (120-point Pace)
- ⚠️12.9 tEVSH% career-high
- 3-Yr Avg: 109 Pts, 41 G
🎯 Steven Stamkos, C/LW | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 20.9 | PTS. PREDICTION: 40 Goals, 97 Points
- Last Season: 106 Pts, 42 G in 81 GP (107-point Pace)
- ⚠️12.4 tEVSH% 2nd-highest of career
- 3-Yr Avg: 96 Pts, 41 G
🎯 Brayden Point, C | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 122.0 | PTS. PREDICTION: 35 Goals, 75 Points
- Last Season: 58 Pts, 28 G in 66 GP (72-point Pace)
- 2.7 SOG/GM, 75 Hits, 33 PIMs, 69.4% PP Share all career-highs
- 51.8 IPP career-low
- 3-Yr Avg: 74 Pts, 33 G
🎯 Alex Killorn, LW/RW | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 165.8 | PTS. PREDICTION: 25 Goals, 57 Points
- Last Season: 59 Pts, 25 G in 82 GP (59-point Pace)
- 59 Pts, 66 PIMs, 14 PPP, 61.7% PP Share, 18:42 TOI all career-highs
- 3-Yr Avg: 56 Pts, 26 G
🎯 Brandon Hagel, LW/RW | 2022 Yahoo Rank: N/A | PTS. PREDICTION: 22 Goals, 52 Points
- Last Season: 44 Pts, 25 G in 77 GP (47-point Pace)
- ⚠️20 iSH%
- 44 Pts, 25 G, 31 PIMs, 63 Hits, 29.2% PP Share, 16:21 TOI all career-highs
- Played mostly with Killorn and Cirelli
- 3-Yr Avg: 42 Pts, 21 G
🎯 Anthony Cirelli, C/LW | 2022 Yahoo Rank: N/A | PTS. PREDICTION: 5 Goals, 20 Points
- Last Season: 43 Pts, 17 G in 76 GP (46-point Pace)
- Cirelli underwent shoulder surgery in July, may not be back until February, possibly after the all-star game.
- 1.9 SOG/GM, 70 PIMs career-highs
- 3-Yr Avg: 46 Pts, 18 G
🎯 Victor Hedman, D | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 14.5 | PTS. PREDICTION: 17 Goals, 75 Points
- Last Season: 85 Pts, 20 G in 82 GP (85-point Pace)
- 85 Pts, 20 G, 218 SOG, 38 PPP, 68.8% PP Share all career-highs
- 9.2 iSH% and 2.7 SOG/GM 2nd-highest of career
- 3-Yr Avg: 75 Pts, 16 G
🎯 Mikhail Sergachev, D | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 139.3 | PTS. PREDICTION: 9 Goals, 48 Points
- Last Season: 38 Pts, 7 G in 78 GP (40-point Pace)
- 1.9 SOG, 59 PIMs, 139 Hits, 123 BLKs, 22:28 TOI all career-highs
- 3-Yr Avg: 41 Pts, 8 G
🎯 Andrei Vasilevskiy, G | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 8.5 | PREDICTION: 65 Starts (79% Net Share), 40 Wins
- Last Season: 39-18-5, 2.49 GAA, .916 SV%, 9.89 GSAx
- 3-Yr Avg: 40-16-3, 2.44 GAA, .919 SV%
Toronto Maple Leafs
54-21-7 (2nd in Atlantic) | GF/GM: 3.80 (2nd) | GA/GM: 3.07 (19th) | GF%: 55.32% (7th) | CF%: 53.91% (5th) | PP%: 27.3% (1st) | PK%: 82.0% (8th)
Schedule Notes: The Toronto Maple Leafs have 14 back-to-back sets this season, tied for 3rd most with Boston, Carolina, Chicago, Detroit, San Jose, St. Louis, and Tampa Bay. 38% of their games are played on “light days” (fewer than 50% of teams in action).
Key Additions: Calle Jarnkrok (UFA – CGY), Nicholas Aube-Kubel (UFA – COL), Jordie Benn (UFA – MIN), Victor Mete (Trade W/ MTL), Matt Murray (Trade W/ OTT), Ilya Samsonov (Trade W/ WSH).
Key Departures: Colin Blackwell (UFA – CHI), Ilya Mikheyev (UFA – VAN), Ondrej Kase (UFA – CAR), Jack Campbell (UFA – EDM), Petr Mrazek (Trade W/ CHI), Michael Hutchinson (UFA – VGK).
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Top Fantasy Targets
🎯 Auston Matthews, C | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 3.1 | PTS. PREDICTION: 65 Goals, 110 Points
- Last Season: 106 Pts, 60 G in 73 GP (119-point Pace)
- 4.8 SOG/GM career-high
- 67 Hits, 29 PPP, 73.1% PP Share, 56.2% FOW all career-highs
- 3-Yr Avg: 106 Pts, 62 G
🎯 Mitch Marner, RW | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 18.1 | PTS. PREDICTION: 33 Goals, 100 Points
- Last Season: 97 Pts, 35 G in 72 GP (110-point Pace)
- 3.1 SOG/GM career-high
- 15.6 iSH% career-high (12.1% career, 13.3% 3-yr avg)
- 75 Hits, 70.9% PP share career-highs
- 3-Yr Avg: 102 Pts, 31 G
🎯 John Tavares, C | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 64.3 | PTS. PREDICTION: 31 Goals, 79 Points
- Last Season: 76 Pts, 27 G in 79 GP (79-point Pace)
- 90 Hits, 60.6% FOW career-highs
- 11.4 iSH% lowest since 2016-2017 (12.1% 3-yr avg, 13.0% career)
- ⚠️0.70 A2/60 career-high, 90% above career-average (0.37 A2/60). 28 of 49 assists were secondary.
- 3-Yr Avg: 77 Pts, 30 G
🎯 William Nylander, LW/RW | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 63.8 | PTS. PREDICTION: 34 Goals, 82 Points
- Last Season: 80 Pts, 34 G in 81 GP (81-point Pace)
- 3.2 SOG/GM, 31 PPP, 69.5% PP Share, 30 BLKs, 18:16 ATOI career-highs
- 0.16 A2/60 down roughly 55% from career average – expect to see some positive regression, uptick in points. 12 of 46 assists were secondary.
- 3-Yr Avg: 75 Pts, 34 G
🎯 Michael Bunting, LW | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 151.6 | PTS. PREDICTION: 24 Goals, 60 Points
- Last Season: 63 Pts, 23 G in 79 GP (65-point Pace)
- 2.2 SOG/GM, 85 Hits, career-high
- 13.1 iSH% career-low; but regression was expected given his high shooting percentages the two seasons prior.
- ⚠️13 tEVSH% unsustainable
- 3-Yr Avg: 62 Pts, 27 G
🎯 Morgan Rielly, D | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 53.7 | PTS. PREDICTION: 12 Goals, 69 Points
- Last Season: 68 Pts, 10 G in 82 GP (68-point Pace)
- 2.7 SOG/GM, 40 PIMs, 67% PP Share career-highs
- 3-Yr Avg: 58 Pts, 8 G
- Inconsistencies in iSH% and shot volume in 2019-2020 and 2020-2021 make his 3-yr average a bit misleading.
🎯 Matt Murray, G | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 154.4 | PREDICTION: 42 Starts (50% Net Share), 28 Wins
- Last Season: 5-12-2, 3.05 GAA, .906 SV%, 1.9 GSAx
- 3-Yr Avg: 25-25-6, 3.06 GAA, .899 SV%
🎯 Ilya Samsonov, G | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 117.3 | PREDICTION: 42 Starts (50% Net Share), 24 Wins
- Last Season: 23-12-5, 3.02 GAA, .896 SV%, -12.58 GSAx
- 3-Yr Avg: 35-15-5, 2.81 GAA, .902 SV%
Contest Announcement | Hacks Holiday!
Help the Hacks celebrate 100 episodes of fantasy fun! We truly appreciate all the support we’ve received from listeners, partners, and guests, making this first 100 episodes a genuinely enjoyable experience. All of us on the podcast enjoy creating fantasy hockey content, and will do so for as long as people will listen. To show our appreciation, we are sending one listener and a guest on a “Hacks Holiday” to Las Vegas next February! Thank you to our partners – Lucky Bastard Distillers & Left Wing Lock – for their support in making this contest possible. Winner will receive:
- 2 tickets to a Vegas Golden Knights home game in February, 2023.
- 2 round-trip tickets to Las Vegas
- 3-night accommodations at a hotel near T-Mobile Arena
- 1 year FREE subscription to the Left Wing Lock iPhone app!
Go to the contest page – FantasyHockeyHacks.com/HacksHoliday – and follow the directions to enter the contest.
“HACK THE CODE” Number For Episode 78: 8
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