Fantasy Preview – Central Division Part 1 (ARI, CHI, COL, DAL) | Feat. Shaggy Von Doom
Episode 75 of the Fantasy Hockey Hacks Podcast! The Hacks continue with fantasy hockey previews, this week focusing on part one of the Central Division – Arizona, Chicago, Colorado, and Dallas. Special guest Shaggy Von Doom (host of Here in Puckberg and Locked On Avs podcasts) provides his take on the fantasy landscape for the Central Division next season. As always, we’ll check in on John’s list and “hack” our way through this week’s Headlines.
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Highlights:
- Enter to win a Left Wing Lock Draft Kit!
- Robin Lehner (VGK) is expected to miss the entire 2022-2023 season
- Max Pacioretty (CAR) will miss approximately 6 months to surgically repair a torn achillies
- Can Clayton Keller reach 75 points in the desert next season?
- How bad will things get in Chicago, and where to draft Patrick Kane?
- What to expect from Alexandre Georgiev next season?
- Will Miro Heiskanen finally explode offensively?
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John’s List
If you have been listening to our podcast for a while, you’ve undoubtedly heard about “John’s List”; which is basically John’s $h!t list of players past and present. If you have any suggestions for players/subjects we should add to the list, let us know!
Cancer – For the loss of Ben Stelter…
Headlines W/ The Hacks | August 8 – 15, 2022
The 2021-2022 regular season has wrapped, but if you’re planning to defend your fantasy hockey championship next season be sure to get your draft kit from our partner, Left Wing Lock – Available NOW! We’re giving away a few of these draft kits, starting this week – so be sure to follow us on Twitter (@FHHacks) or Instagram (@FantasyHockeyHacks) to win!
News This Week
- Martin Necas signed a 2-year, $6M ($3M AAV) contract extension to stay with the Carolina Hurricanes. The 23-year old posted 40 points and 14 goals with the Canes last season.
- Max Pacioretty will undergo surgery to repair a torn Achilles. Expected recovery time is approximately 6 months, but injuries like these have been devastating for some players.
- The New York Rangers named Jacob Trouba as the team’s 28th captain in franchise history; and first since Ryan McDonagh in 2018.
- Robin Lehner is expected to miss the entire 2022-2023 regular season, and will require hip surgery. Lehner started 44 games during the 2021-2022 regular season, posting a record of 23-17-2 with a 2.83 GAA, .907 SV%, and 1.05 GSAx.
- Fantasy Spin: Logan Thompson gets an opportunity to take over the crease for the Vegas Golden Knights. Alternatively, Vegas may look to pry one of the three goaltenders out of San Jose.
- Sam Gagner posted a photo to his Instagram stories, showing an Oilers shirt post-workout – is he coming back to Edmonton?
2022 Central Division (Pt. 1) Fantasy Hockey Preview
Arizona Coyotes
25-50-7 (8th in Central) | GF/GM: 2.51 (32nd) | GA/GM: 3.77 (30th) | GF%: 41.53 (32nd) | CF%: 44.00 (32nd) | PP%: 13.9 (30th) | PK%: 75.0 (28th)
Schedule Notes: The Arizona Coyotes have 12 back-to-back sets this season; tied for the 5th fewest with Florida, Minnesota, New Jersey, Nashville, and Ottawa. 39% of their games are played on “light days” (days where fewer than 50% of teams are in action).
Key Additions: Zack Kassian (Trade w/ EDM), Nick Bjugstad (UFA), Troy Stercher (UFA)
Key Departures: Phil Kessel (UFA)
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Top Fantasy Targets
🎯 Clayton Keller, LW/RW | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 125 | PTS. PREDICTION: 29 Goals, 72 Points
- Last Season: 63 Pts, 28 G IN 67 GP
- 📈15.8 iSH% (12.2% 3-Yr Avg)
- 📈12.7 tEVSH% (highest since rookie season in 2016-2017)
- 3-Yr Avg: 60 Pts, 25 G
🎯 Nick Schmaltz, C/RW | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 208 | PTS. PREDICTION: 23 Goals, 62 Points
- Last Season: 59 Pts, 23 G in 63 GP
- 📈18.7 iSH% highest of Schmaltz’s career, and highest since 2017-2018 (17.8).
- 📈13 tEVSH% a career-high
- 📉47.1 offensive zone-start percentage a career-low. Does it continue next season?
- 51 Even-Strength Points
- 3-Yr Avg: 61 Pts, 20 G
🎯 Jakob Chychrun, D | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 190 | PTS. PREDICTION: 17 Goals, 42 Points
- Last Season: 21 Pts, 7 G in 47 GP
- 📉5 iSH% lowest since 2018-2019
- Shot volume over 3 SOG/GM the past two seasons
- 📉7.9 tEVSH% lowest since 2018-2019
- 3-Yr Avg: 43 Pts, 18 G
🎯 Shayne Gostisbehere, D | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 399 | PTS. PREDICTION: 12 Goals, 42 Points
- Last Season: 51 Pts, 14 G in 82 GP
- 📈57.3 IPP was a career-high last season
- 📉43.2 OZ Start% career-low
- 3-Yr Avg: 41 Pts, 14 G
🎯 Karel Vejmelka, G | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 769 | PREDICTION: 55 Starts (67% Net Share), 18 Wins
- Last Season: 13-32-3, 3.68 GAA, .898 SV%, -21.23 GSAx
- 36th in SO (1)
- 40th in Wins
- 72nd in SV%
- 3-Yr Avg: 33-20-6, 2.51 GAA, .916 SV%
Chicago Blackhawks
28-42-12 (7th in Central) | GF/GM: 2.60 (29th) | GA/GM: 3.52 (26th) | GF%: 42.69 (31st) | CF%: 45.98 (30th) | PP%: 19.2 (21st) | PK%: 76.2 (24th)
Schedule Notes: The Chicago Blackhawks have 14 back-to-back sets this season; tied for 3rd most, along with 8 other NHL clubs. 37% of their games are played on “light days” (fewer than 50% of teams are in action).
Key Additions: Andreas Athanasiou (UFA – LAK), Colin Blackwell (UFA – TOR), Max Domi (UFA – CAR), Petr Mrazek (Trade w/ TOR)
Key Departures: Alex DeBrincat (Trade w/ OTT), Dominik Kubalik (UFA – DET), Dylan Strome (RFA, Not Qualified – WSH), Erik Gustafsson (UFA – WSH), Henrik Borgstrom (UFA – WSH), Kirby Dach (Trade w/ MTL), Kevin Lankinen (UFA – NSH)
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Top Fantasy Targets
🎯 Patrick Kane, RW | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 41 | PTS. PREDICTION: 29 Goals, 92 Points
- Last Season: 91 Pts, 26 G in 78 GP
- 📈Started 75.5% of his shifts in the offensive zone last season, a career-high.
- 3-Yr Avg: 97 Pts, 30 G
🎯 Jonathan Toews, C | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 647 | PTS. PREDICTION: 18 Goals, 50 Points
- Last Season: 38 Pts, 13 G in 71 GP
- 📉1.8 SOG/GM career-low.
- 📉17:28 career-low.
- 3-Yr Avg: 57 Pts, 18 G
🎯 Max Domi, LW/RW | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 532 | PTS. PREDICTION: 15 Goals, 45 Points
- Last Season: 39 Pts, 11 G in 72 GP
- 3-Yr Avg: 44 Pts, 15 G
🎯 Andreas Athanasiou, LW/RW | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 685 | PTS. PREDICTION: 23 Goals, 46 Points
- Last Season: 17 Pts, 11 G in 28 GP
- 📈15.5 iSH% 2nd-highest of his career; 11.2 iSH% 3-Yr Avg.
- 📈10.2 tEVSH%, career-high
- 3-Yr Avg: 41 Pts, 20 G
🎯 Seth Jones, D | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 157 | PTS. PREDICTION: 7 Goals, 49 Points
- Last Season: 51 Pts, 5 G in 78 GP
- 📉2.6 iSH%, 2nd-lowest of career, down relative to 3-Yr avg (3.5 iSH%).
- 6.9 tEVSH% suggests potential regression
- 3-Yr Avg: 47 Pts, 7 G
🎯 Petr Mrazek, G | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 424 | PREDICTION: 42 Starts (51%% Net Share), 12 Wins
- Last Season: 12-6-0, 3.34 GAA, .888 SV%, -14.02 GSAx
- 3-Yr Avg: 36-15-7, 2.58 GAA, .913 SV%
Colorado Avalanche
56-19-7 (1st in Central) | GF/GM: 3.76 (4th) | GA/GM: 2.83 (9th) | GF%: 56.41 (5th) | CF%: 52.86 (7th) | PP%: 24.0 (7th) | PK%: 79.7 (15th)
Schedule Notes: The Colorado Avalanche have 13 back-to-back sets this season, tied for 4th-most among all teams in the NHL this season; and 38% of Colorado’s games are played on “light days” (fewer than 50% of teams in action).
Key Additions: Alexander Georgiev (UFA – NYR)
Key Departures: Andre Burakovsky (UFA – SEA), Nazem Kadri (UFA – NYI?), Darcy Kuemper (UFA – WSH)
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Top Fantasy Targets
🎯 Nathan MacKinnon, C | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 4 | PTS. PREDICTION: 39 Goals, 108 Points
- Last Season: 88 Pts, 32 G in 65 GP
- 3-Yr Avg: 111 Pts, 39 G
🎯 Mikko Rantanen, RW | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 7 | PTS. PREDICTION: 42 Goals, 100 Points
- Last Season: 92 Pts, 36 G in 75 GP
- 📉57.9 IPP down from ~70 IPP avg the past 4 seasons.
- 3-Yr Avg: 96 Pts, 41 G
🎯 Gabriel Landeskog, C/LW | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 29 | PTS. PREDICTION: 33 Goals, 82 Points
- Last Season: 59 Pts, 30 G in 51 GP
- 📈20 iSH% career-high versus 3-Yr avg (15.8%) and career (12.2%)
- 3-Yr Avg: 80 Pts, 37 G
🎯 Valeri Nichushkin, RW | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 155 | PTS. PREDICTION: 25 Goals, 62 Points
- Last Season: 52 Pts, 25 G in 62 GP
- 📈13.9 iSH% career-high; 3-yr avg is 12.3%
- 📈2.9 SOG/GM was a 61% jump from the previous season and Nichushkin’s career-average (1.8 SOG/GM)
- 📈19:02 ATOI was a massive jump from the 14:05 ATOI Nichushkin played in his first two seasons with the Avs.
- 3-Yr Avg: 45 Pts, 22 G
🎯 Cale Makar, D | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 5 | PTS. PREDICTION: 25 Goals, 87 Points
- Last Season: 86 Pts, 28 G in 77 GP
- 📈11.7 iSH% a career-high
- 📈3.1 SOG/GM, 1.23 Hits/GM, and 1.43 Blks/GM all career-highs
- 3-Yr Avg: 83 Pts, 22 G
🎯 Devon Toews, D | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 70 | PTS. PREDICTION: 12 Goals, 58 Points
- Last Season: 57 Pts, 13 G in 66 GP
- 📈8.2 iSH% career-high
- 📈25:22 ATOI career-high
- 📉Just 32.7% PP Share, 12 PPP
- 3-Yr Avg: 51 Pts, 12 G
🎯 Bowen Byram, D | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 132 | PTS. PREDICTION: 11 Goals, 37 Points
- Last Season: 17 Pts, 5 G in 30 GP
- 📈10.2 iSH% career-high (7.1 iSH% 3-yr avg)
- 3-Yr Avg: 31 Pts, 8 G
🎯 Samuel Girard, D | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 249 | PTS. PREDICTION: 6 Goals, 42 Points
- Last Season: 28 Pts, 5 G in 67 GP
- 📉Shot volume (1.2 SOG/GM) down 25% from the previous year (1.6 SOG/GM)
- 3-Yr Avg: 41 Pts, 6 G
🎯 Alexandre Georgiev, G | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 135 | PREDICTION: 50 Starts (61% Net Share), 29 Wins
- Last Season: 16-10-2, 2.92 GAA, .898 SV%, -6.82 GSAx
- 3-Yr Avg: 39-13-5, 2.47 GAA, .920 SV%
🎯 Pavel Francouz, G | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 179 | PREDICTION: 32 Starts (49% Net Share), 21 Wins
- Last Season: 15-5-1, 2.55 GAA, .916 SV%, -6.82 GSAx
- 3-Yr Avg: 30-24-5, 2.64 GAA, .906 SV%
Dallas Stars
46-30-6 (4th in Central) | GF/GM: 2.84 (21st) | GA/GM: 2.98 (19th) | GF%: 48.04 (20th) | CF%: 48.04 (19th) | PP%: 22.4 (11th) | PK%: 79.0 (19th)
Schedule Notes: The Dallas Stars have 10 back-to-back sets this season, tied for 3rd most with Calgary and Edmonton. 33% of their games are played on “light days” (fewer than 50% of teams in action).
Key Additions: Mason Marchment (UFA – FLA), Will Butcher (UFA – BUF), Scott Wedgewood (UFA)
Key Departures: John Klingberg (UFA – ANA)
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Top Fantasy Targets
🎯 Jason Robertson, LW | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 42 | PTS. PREDICTION: 38 Goals, 82 Points
- Last Season: 79 Pts, 41 G
- 📈Shot volume increased from 2.5 SOG/GM in 2020-2021 to 3.0 SOG/GM in 2021-2022.
- 📈18.6 iSH% significantly up from the year prior (13.4 iSH%).
- 3-Yr Avg: 80 Pts, 37 G
🎯 Joe Pavelski, C/RW | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 92 | PTS. PREDICTION: 29 Goals, 75 Points
- Last Season: 81 Pts, 27 G
- 📈0.72 A2/60 was elevated last season
- 📉12.5 iSH% down from 3-Yr avg. (13.8 iSH%)
- 3-Yr Avg: 65 Pts, 26 G
🎯 Roope Hintz, C | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 128 | PTS. PREDICTION: 33 Goals, 74 Points
- Last Season: 72 Pts, 37 G
- 3-Yr Avg: 67 Pts, 32 G
🎯 Tyler Seguin, RW | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 206 | PTS. PREDICTION: 23 Goals, 54 Points
- Last Season: 49 Pts, 24 G
- 📉6.5 tEVSH% suggests positive regression
- 📉60.5 IPP a career-low
- 3-Yr Avg: 54 Pts, 23 G
🎯 Jamie Benn, C/LW | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 260 | PTS. PREDICTION: 18 Goals, 49 Points
- Last Season: 46 Pts, 18 G
- 3-Yr Avg: 48 Pts, 19 G
🎯 Mason Marchment, LW/RW | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 290 | PTS. PREDICTION: 20 Goals, 55 Points
- Last Season: 47 Pts, 18 G
- 📈Shot volume jumped from 1.5 SOG/GM in 2020-2021 to 2.2 last season.
- 📈14.9 iSH% significantly higher than the year prior (4 iSH%)
- 📈12.1 tEVSH% up from 7.6 tEVSH% in 2020-2021.
- 📈60.5 CF% – strong possession numbers in Florida
- 3-Yr Avg: 52 Pts, 18 G
🎯 Miro Heiskanen, D | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 105 | PTS. PREDICTION: 10 Goals, 56 Points
- Last Season: 36 Pts, 5 G
- 📉3.2 iSH% down from 3-Yr (4.8 iSH%) and career (5.3 iSH%) averages.
- 📉47.9% PP share, expect that number to be between 60-65% this season.
- 3-Yr Avg: 42 Pts, 9 G
🎯 Jake Oettinger, G | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 48 | PREDICTION: 56 Starts (68% Net Share), 34 Wins
- Last Season: 30-15-1, 2.53 GAA, .914 SV%, -1.9 GSAx
- 12th in Wins (30)
- 36th in SO (1)
- 26th in SV% (.914)
- 3-Yr Avg: 32-18-6, 2.47 GAA, .913 SV%
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