Fantasy Preview – Central Division Part 2 (MIN, NSH, STL, WPG)

Fantasy Preview – Central Division Part 2 (MIN, NSH, STL, WPG)

Episode 76 of the Fantasy Hockey Hacks Podcast! Fantasy hockey previews continue as the Hacks move through part two of the Central Division – Minnesota, Nashville, St. Louis, and Winnipeg. As always, we’ll check in on John’s list and “hack” our way through this week’s Headlines.

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Highlights:
  • Enter to win a Left Wing Lock Draft Kit!
  • The Flames continue to make noise this off-season, signing Nazem Kadri
  • Carey Price UNLIKELY to return for the 2022-2023 season
  • Canada wins World Junior Gold
  • Can Kirill Kaprizov score 50 goals?
  • Regression coming for the Predators?
  • A point per game for Robert Thomas?
  • Connor Hellebuyck could be a real value pick in drafts this Fall

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John’s List

If you have been listening to our podcast for a while, you’ve undoubtedly heard about “John’s List”; which is basically John’s $h!t list of players past and present. If you have any suggestions for players/subjects we should add to the list, let us know!

Lou Lamoriello & The Islanders – For not signing a single UFA this off-season (missing on Nazem Kadri)…aaannddd Kyle Turris

Headlines W/ The Hacks | August 15 – 22, 2022

The 2021-2022 regular season has wrapped, but if you’re planning to defend your fantasy hockey championship next season be sure to get your draft kit from our partner, Left Wing LockAvailable NOW! We’re giving away a few of these draft kits, starting this week – so be sure to follow us on Twitter (@FHHacks) or Instagram (@FantasyHockeyHacks) to win!

News This Week
  • The Chicago Blackhawks signed Jack Johnson to a 1-year, $950K contract
  • Nazem Kadri signed a 7-year, $49M contract ($7M AAV) with the Calgary Flames! 
      • Fantasy Spin: Kadri ends up in a significantly better situation than if he had signed with the Islanders. The former Av should see top 6 and PP1 duties; and will make the Battle of Alberta exponentially more entertaining! I still expect regression based on last year’s performance, but potentially not as severe now. 

  • In a subsequent, cap-related move, the Calgary Flames traded Sean Monahan and a conditional 2025 first round pick to the Montreal Canadiens; in exchange for future considerations (AKA Nothing).
  • Former Oiler Kyle Turris announced his retirement from the NHL this week. 
  • Carey Price is UNLIKELY TO RETURN for the 2022-2023 regular season; career very likely over.

  • Canada won gold at the IIHF World Junior Tournament in overtime against Finland. Anaheim Ducks prospect Mason MacTavish made a miraculous goal-line stop in the extra period; then Columbus Blue Jackets’ prospect Kent Johnson made a nice play to score the game-winning goal.

  • The New York Islanders signed Noah Dobson, Alexander Romanov, and Kieffer Bellows to new contracts. Dobson signed a 3-year contract with a $4M AAV. Last season, Dobson posted a career-high 51 points and 13 goals in 80 games played. After a slow start (4 points in 15 GP), the Isles Dman posted 47 points in 65 games – a 59-point pace!

2022 Central Division (Pt. 2) Fantasy Hockey Preview

Minnesota Wild

53-22-7 (2nd in Central) | GF/GM: 3.72 (5th) | GA/GM: 3.04 (16th) | GF%: 55.05 (9th) | CF%: 50.52 (15th) | PP%: 20.5 (18th) | PK%: 76.1 (25th)

Schedule Notes: The Minnesota Wild have 12 back-to-back sets this season; tied for the 5th fewest with Arizona, Florida, Minnesota, New Jersey, Nashville, and Ottawa. 40% of their games are played on “light days” (days where fewer than 50% of teams are in action).

Key Additions: Marc-Andrea Fleury (UFA)

Key Departures: Kevin Fiala (Trade w/ LAK), Cam Talbot (Trade w/ OTT), Nic Deslauriers (UFA – PHI)

Top Fantasy Targets

🎯 Kirill Kaprizov, LW | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 6 | PTS. PREDICTION: 47 Goals, 102 Points
  • Last Season: 108 Pts, 47 G in 81 GP
      • 📈11.8 tEVSH% well above league average (8.5 tEVSH%)
      • ⚠️Averaging 16.6 iSH% in first two years in the NHL – will that continue? 
      • 📈3.6 SOG/GM last season a significant boost from the year prior (2.9 SOG/GM)
  • 3-Yr Avg: 96 Pts, 45 G
🎯 Ryan Hartman, C | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 120 | PTS. PREDICTION: 25 Goals, 57 Points
  • Last Season: 65 Pts, 34 G in 82 GP
      • 📈12.1 tEVSH% career-high, well above ~9% average the past 3 seasons
      • 📈2.9 SOG/GM career-high (1.5 SOG/GM in 2020-2021)
      • 📈45.4% PP share a career-high
  • 3-Yr Avg: 43 Pts, 20 G
🎯 Mats Zuccarello, RW | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 91 | PTS. PREDICTION: 25 Goals, 77 Points
  • Last Season: 79 Pts, 24 G in 70 GP
      • 📈11.6 tEVSH% career-high
  • 3-Yr Avg: 70 Pts, 23 G
🎯 Matt Boldy, LW/RW | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 108 | PTS. PREDICTION: 27 Goals, 64 Points
  • Last Season: 39 Pts, 15 G in 47 GP
      • 📈12.2 tEVSH% unsustainable
  • 3-Yr Avg: 68 Pts, 26 G
🎯 Marco Rossi, C | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 241 | PTS. PREDICTION: 18 Goals, 49 Points
  • Last Season: 0 Pts, 0 G in 2 GP
  • 3-Yr Avg: N/A
🎯 Joel Eriksson Ek, C | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 153 | PTS. PREDICTION: 27 Goals, 52 Points
  • Last Season: 50 Pts, 26 G in 77 GP
  • 3-Yr Avg: 46 Pts, 22 G
🎯 Jared Spurgeon, D | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 158 | PTS. PREDICTION: 12 Goals, 44 Points
  • Last Season: 41 Pts, 10 G in 65 GP
      • 📈10.3 tEVSH% career-high
      • 📈0.63 Pts/GM (1.8 Pts/60) career-high
  • 3-Yr Avg: 44 Pts, 13 G
🎯 Matt Dumba, D | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 203 | PTS. PREDICTION: 9 Goals, 36 Points
  • Last Season: 27 Pts, 7 G in 57 GP
      • 📉7.9% tEVSH% – potential for regression
      • 📈2.00 Hits/GM career-high
      • 📈1.47 Blks/GM career-high
      • 📉33.3% PP Share lowest since 2014-2015
  • 3-Yr Avg: 34 Pts, 9 G
🎯 Marc-Andre Fleury, G | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 61 | PREDICTION: 55 Starts (67% Net Share), 32 Wins
  • Last Season: 28-23-5, 2.90 GAA, .908 SV%, -11 GSAx
      • 12 in SO (4)
      • 14 in Wins
      • 34th in SV%
  • 3-Yr Avg: 34-21-4, 2.62 GAA, .912 SV%

Nashville Predators

45-30-7 (5th in Central) | GF/GM: 3.20 (13th) | GA/GM: 3.05 (17th) | GF%: 51.17 (16th) | CF%: 48.51 (19th) | PP%: 24.4 (6th) | PK%: 79.2 (18th)

Schedule Notes: The Nashville Predators have 12 back-to-back sets this season; tied for 5th most with Arizona, Florida, Minnesota, New Jersey, and Ottawa. 28% of their games are played on “light days” (fewer than 50% of teams are in action).

Key Additions: Nino Niederreiter (UFA – CAR), Ryan McDonagh (UFA – TB), Kevin Lankinen (UFA – CHI)

Key Departures: Luke Kunin (UFA – SJS), Nick Cousins (UFA – FLA), Matt Benning (UFA – SJS), David Rittich (UFA – WPG)

Top Fantasy Targets

🎯 Filip Forsberg, LW | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 54 | PTS. PREDICTION: 35 Goals, 82 Points
  • Last Season: 84 Pts, 42 G in 69 GP
      • 📈1.22 Pts/GM significantly higher than career-average (.83 Pts/GM)
      • 📈18.6 iSH% career-high (12.9 career avg)
      • 📈11.7% tEVSH career-high (7.67% 3-yr avg)
  • 3-Yr Avg: 79 Pts, 36 G
🎯 Matt Duchene, RW | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 74 | PTS. PREDICTION: 30 Goals, 73 Points
  • Last Season: 86 Pts, 43 G in 78 GP
      • 📈18.9 iSH% career-high
      • 📈64% PP Share career-high
      • 📈1.10 Pts/GM (0.79 Pts/GM 3-yr avg)
      • 📈11.5% tEVSH% (8.52% 3-yr avg)
  • 3-Yr Avg: 65 Pts, 29 G
🎯 Ryan Johansen, C | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 183 | PTS. PREDICTION: 18 Goals, 55 Points
  • Last Season: 63 Pts, 26 G in 79 GP
      • 📈22 iSH% career-high (11.7% career-avg)
      • 📈11 tEVSH% career-high
  • 3-Yr Avg: 51 Pts, 20 G
🎯 Mikael Granlund, C | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 263 | PTS. PREDICTION: 17 Goals, 57 Points
  • Last Season: 64 Pts, 11 G in 80 GP
      • 📉9.4 iSH% (12.8% 3-yr avg)
      • 📈64.1% PP Share career-high
  • 3-Yr Avg: 51 Pts, 17 G
🎯 Nino Niederreiter, LW | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 254 | PTS. PREDICTION: 24 Goals, 45 Points
  • Last Season: 44 Pts, 24 G in 75 GP
      • 📈10.1 tEVSH% career-high
  • 3-Yr Avg: 45 Pts, 23 G
🎯 Eeli Tolvanen, LW | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 406 | PTS. PREDICTION: 20 Goals, 49 Points
  • Last Season: 23 Pts, 11 G in 75 GP
      • 2.35 Hits/GM
  • 3-Yr Avg: 32 Pts, 16 G
🎯 Tanner Jeannot, RW | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 177 | PTS. PREDICTION: 25 Goals, 51 Points
  • Last Season: 41 Pts, 24 G in 81 GP
      • 3.93 Hits/GM (318 Total Hits)
      • 1.60 PIMS/GM (130 Total PIMS)
  • 3-Yr Avg: N/A
🎯 Roman Josi, D | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 20 | PTS. PREDICTION: 20 Goals, 77 Points
  • Last Season: 96 Pts, 23 G in 80 GP
      • 📈37 PPP career-high
      • 📈1.20 Pts/GM career-high
  • 3-Yr Avg: 81 Pts, 20 G
🎯 Matthias Ekholm, D | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 408 | PTS. PREDICTION: 8 Goals, 35 Points
  • Last Season: 31 Pts, 6 G in 76 GP
      • 📈10.5 tEVSH%
  • 3-Yr Avg: 38 Pts, 9 G
🎯 Juuse Saros, G | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 44 | PREDICTION: 65 Starts (79% Net Share), 36 Wins
  • Last Season: 38-25-3, 2.64 GAA, .918 SV%, 7.69 GSAx
      • 3rd in Wins
      • Tied for 6th in SO (4)
      • 9th in SV%
  • 3-Yr Avg: 32-20-3, 2.57 GAA, .919 SV%

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St. Louis Blues 

49-22-11 (3rd in Central) | GF/GM: 3.77 (3rd) | GA/GM: 2.91 (11th) | GF%: 56.39 (5th) | CF%: 48.05 (22nd) | PP%: 27.0 (2nd) | PK%: 84.1 (5th)

Schedule Notes: The St. Louis Blues have 14 back-to-back sets this season, tied for 3rd-most with 8 other NHL clubs; and 30% of Colorado’s games are played on “light days” (fewer than 50% of teams in action).

Key Additions: Thomas Greiss (UFA – DET)

Key Departures: David Perron (UFA – DET), Ville Husso (UFA – DET)

Top Fantasy Targets

🎯 Vladimir Tarasenko, RW | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 51 | PTS. PREDICTION: 33 Goals, 75 Points
  • Last Season: 82 Pts, 34 G in 75 GP
      • 📈1.09 Pts/GM career-high
      • 📈13.4 tEVSH% career-high
  • 3-Yr Avg: 80 Pts, 31 G
🎯 Robert Thomas, C | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 83 | PTS. PREDICTION: 20 Goals, 76 Points
  • Last Season: 76 Pts, 20 G in 72 GP
      • 45 points (15 goals) in the final 37 games of the season!
      • 📈17.4 iSH% career-high
      • 📈1.06 Pts/GM career-high
      • 📈13.3 tEVSH% career-high (12.1% 3-yr avg)
  • 3-Yr Avg: 63 Pts, 16 G
🎯 Pavel Buchnevich, LW/RW | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 64 | PTS. PREDICTION: 30 Goals, 79 Points
  • Last Season: 76 Pts, 30 G in 73 GP
      • 📈2.7 SOG/GM career-high
  • 3-Yr Avg: 72 Pts, 28 G
🎯 Ryan O’Rielly, C | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 116 | PTS. PREDICTION: 25 Goals, 70 Points
  • Last Season: 58 Pts, 21 G in 78 GP
  • 3-Yr Avg: 69 Pts, 23 G
🎯 Jordan Kyrou, LW/RW | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 101 | PTS. PREDICTION: 30 Goals, 75 Points
  • Last Season: 75 Pts, 27 G in 74 GP
      • 📈1.01 Pts/GM career-high
      • 📈2.5 SOG/GM career-high
      • 📈12.3 tEVSH% career-high
  • 3-Yr Avg: 63 Pts, 24 G
🎯 Brayden Schenn, C/LW | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 96 | PTS. PREDICTION: 24 Goals, 64 Points
  • Last Season: 58 Pts, 24 G in 62 GP
      • 📈21.6 iSH% career-high
      • 📈12.7 tEVSH% career-high (8.6% 3-yr avg)
  • 3-Yr Avg: 66 Pts, 28 G
🎯 Torey Krug, D | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 106 | PTS. PREDICTION: 9 Goals, 51 Points
  • Last Season: 43 Pts, 9 G in 64 GP
      • 📈12.1 tEVSH% highest since 2011-2012
      • 📉38.4 IPP down from 3-yr avg (50.9)
  • 3-Yr Avg: 57 Pts, 9 G
🎯 Justin Faulk, D | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 170 | PTS. PREDICTION: 10 Goals, 37 Points
  • Last Season: 47 Pts, 16 G in 76 GP
      • 📈9.6 iSH% inflated relative to 3-yr avg (6.5%)
      • ⚠️74.1% Secondary Assists
  • 3-Yr Avg: 35 Pts, 11 G
🎯 Colton Parayko, D | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 484 | PTS. PREDICTION: 8 Goals, 35 Points
  • Last Season: 35 Pts, 6 G in 80 GP
      • 📉1.7 SOG/GM career-low
      • 📈11.3 tEVSH% career-high (7.76 3-yr avg)
  • 3-Yr Avg: 35 Pts, 8 G
🎯 Jordan Binnington, G | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 165 | PREDICTION: 50 Starts (60% Net Share), 28 Wins
  • Last Season: 18-14-4, 3.13 GAA, .901 SV%, -9.4 GSAx
      • 30th in SO (2)
      • 31st in Wins
      • 48th in SV%
  • 3-Yr Avg: 31-19-9, 2.75 GAA, .908 SV%

Winnipeg Jets

39-32-11 (6th in Central) | GF/GM: 3.05 (16th) | GA/GM: 3.09 (20th) | GF%: 49.70 (19th) | CF%: 49.63 (18th) | PP%: 21.1 (17th) | PK%: 75.0 (29th)

Schedule Notes: The Winnipeg Jets have 13 back-to-back sets this season, tied for 6th most with Buffalo, Colorado, Montreal, and Vancouver. 41% of their games are played on “light days” (fewer than 50% of teams in action).

Key Additions: N/A

Key Departures: N/A

Top Fantasy Targets

🎯 Kyle Connor, LW | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 26 | PTS. PREDICTION: 50 Goals, 94 Points
  • Last Season: 93 Pts, 47 G in 79 GP
      • 📈4.0 SOG/GM career-high
      • 📈1.18 Pts/GM career-high
      • 📉6.9 tEVSH% 2nd-lowest of career
      • ⚠️81.6 IPP career-high
      • 51 Points (24 Goals) in his last 40 games played – a 104-point pace!
  • 3-Yr Avg: 86 Pts, 44 G
🎯 Mark Scheifele, C | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 98 | PTS. PREDICTION: 34 Goals, 85 Points
  • Last Season: 70 Pts, 29 G in 67 GP
  • 3-Yr Avg: 87 Pts, 33 G
🎯 Pierre-Luc Dubois, C | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 79 | PTS. PREDICTION: 29 Goals, 62 Points
  • Last Season: 60 Pts, 28 G in 81 GP
      • 📈2.9 SOG/GM career-high
      • 1.38 Hits/GM
      • 63.4% PP Share career-high
      • 18:56 ATOI career-high
  • 3-Yr Avg: 54 Pts, 23 G
🎯 Nikolaj Ehlers, LW/RW | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 57 | PTS. PREDICTION: 36 Goals, 77 Points
  • Last Season: 55 Pts, 28 G in 62 GP
      • 📈4.0 SOG/GM career-high
      • ⚠️Just 9 PPP! Average of 12 PPp per season
      • ⚠️69.6 IPP down from 3-yr avg of 83.8
  • 3-Yr Avg: 73 Pts, 34 G
🎯 Blake Wheeler, RW | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 159 | PTS. PREDICTION: 24 Goals, 76 Points
  • Last Season: 60 Pts, 17 G in 65 GP
      • Consistent – 0.92 Pts/GM the past 3 seasons
  • 3-Yr Avg: 76 Pts, 24 G
🎯 Cole Perfetti, C/RW | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 281 | PTS. PREDICTION: 16 Goals, 48 Points
  • Last Season: 7 Pts, 2 G in 18 GP
      • 📉5.8 tEVSH% and ZERO secondary assists in 18 games played
      • ⚠️87.5 IPP
      • 1.2 SOG/GM
      • ~1 Hit/GM
  • 3-Yr Avg: N/A
🎯 Josh Morrissey, D | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 267 | PTS. PREDICTION: 10 Goals, 42 Points
  • Last Season: 37 Pts, 12 G in 79 GP
      • 📈6.9 iSH% and 2.2 SOG/GM career-highs
      • 1.90 Hits/GM
      • 1.32 Blks/GM
      • 📉7.3 tEVSH% career-low
  • 3-Yr Avg: 37 Pts, 9 G
🎯 Neal Pionk, D | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 262 | PTS. PREDICTION: 6 Goals, 40 Points
  • Last Season: 34 Pts, 3 G in 77 GP
      • 📉2.1 iSH% second-lowest of his career
      • ⚠️38.2 IPP career-low
  • 3-Yr Avg: 45 Pts, 5 G
🎯 Connor Hellebuyk, G | 2022 Yahoo Rank: 93 | PREDICTION: 65 Starts (79% Net Share), 32 Wins
  • Last Season: 29-27-10, 2.97 GAA, .910 SV%, 6.26 GSAx
      • Tied for 6th in SO (4)
      • 13 in Wins
      • 31st in SV%
  • 3-Yr Avg: 30-23-6, 2.73 GAA, .916 SV%

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