Fantasy Preview – Metropolitan Division Part 1 (NYR, PHI, PIT, WSH) | Feat. Jonny Lazarus (Blue Crew Podcast & Action Network)
Episode 79 of the Fantasy Hockey Hacks Podcast! Fantasy hockey previews roll ahead as the Hacks dive into part 1 of the Metropolitan Division (New York, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Washington) with special guest Jonny Lazarus from the Blue Crew Podcast and the Action Network! As we do each week, we’ll also check in on John’s list and “hack” our way through this week’s Headlines.
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Highlights:
- Enter to win a Hacks Holiday in Vegas!
- What will Shesterkin do for an encore?
- How bad will things be in Philadelphia? Who is fantasy relevant?
- Last Dance territory for Crosby, Malkin, Letang
- Another 50-goal season for Ovechkin?
- Quiet week for Headlines
- Ask The Hacks – Jack Campbell or Sergei Bobrovsky?
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John’s List
If you have been listening to our podcast for a while, you’ve undoubtedly heard about “John’s List”; which is basically John’s $h!t list of players past and present. If you have any suggestions for players/subjects we should add to the list, let us know!
Zach Aston-Reese – For signing in Toronto…
Headlines W/ The Hacks | September 5 – 12, 2022
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News This Week
- Insert crickets here…
2022 Metropolitan Division (Pt. 1) Fantasy Hockey Preview
New York Rangers
52-24-6 (2nd in Metro) | GF/GM: 3.05 (17th) | GA/GM: 2.49 (2nd) | GF%: 55.07 (8th) | CF%: 47.74 (24th) | PP%: 25.2 (4th) | PK%: 82.3 (7th)
Schedule Notes: The New York Rangers have 16 back-to-back sets this season, tied for the most with the Columbus Blue Jackets this season . 41% of their games are played on “light days” (fewer than 50% of teams in action).
Key Additions: Vincent Trocheck (UFA – CAR), Jaroslav Halak (UFA – VAN), Louis Domingue (UFA – PIT)
Key Departures: Andrew Copp (UFA – DET), Frank Vatrano (UFA – FLA), Justin Braun (UFA – PHI), Ryan Strome (UFA – ANA), Keith Kinkaid (UFA – BOS), Alexandre Georgiev (Trade W/ COL)
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Top Fantasy Targets
🎯 Mikka Zibanejad, C | 2022 Yahoo ADP: 29.3 | PTS. PREDICTION: 32 Goals, 82 Points
- Last Season: 81 Pts, 29 G in 81 GP (82-point Pace)
- 2.7 SOG/GM lowest since 2016-2017
- 71.7% PP Share, 28 PPP career-highs
- 3-Yr Avg: 87 Pts, 40 G
🎯 Artemi Panarin, LW | 2022 Yahoo ADP: 24.0 | PTS. PREDICTION: 30 Goals, 100 Points
- Last Season: 96 Pts, 22 G in 75 GP (105-point Pace)
- 37 PPP, 72.6% PP Share career-highs
- 12.4 iSH% lowest since 2017-2018
- 3-Yr Avg: 109 Pts, 31 G
🎯 Chris Kreider, LW/RW | 2022 Yahoo ADP: 26.5 | PTS. PREDICTION: 35 Goals, 67 Points
- Last Season: 77 Pts, 52 G in 81 GP (78-point Pace)
- 20.2 iSH% and 3.2 SOG/GM career-highs
- 52 goals shattered his previous career-best of 28 goals; and 35 PPP crushed his previous career-high of 14.
- 3-Yr Avg: 65 Pts, 41 G
🎯 Vincent Trocheck, C | 2022 Yahoo ADP: 156.4 | PTS. PREDICTION: 25 Goals, 60 Points
- Last Season: 51 Pts, 21 G in 81 GP (52-point Pace)
- 2.1 SOG/GM lowest shot rate since 2013-2014 (sophomore season).
- Expect a bump in TOI due to PP1 duties.
- 8.3 tEVSH%
- ⚠️53.7 IPP career-low
- 3-Yr Avg: 57 Pts, 21 G
🎯 Alexis Lafrieniere, LW/RW | 2022 Yahoo ADP: 163.1 | PTS. PREDICTION: 23 Goals, 45 Points
- Last Season: 31 Pts, 19 G in 79 GP (32-point Pace)
- 108 Hits career-high
- Low-volume shooter – just 1.4 SOG/GM last season. Deployment with Trocheck and Panarin should yield some results.
- 3-Yr Avg: 32 Pts, 19 G
🎯 Adam Fox, D | 2022 Yahoo ADP: 17.4 | PTS. PREDICTION: 11 Goals, 70 Points
- Last Season: 74 Pts, 11 G in 78 GP (78-point Pace)
- 7 iSH% and 2.0 SOG/GM both career-highs
- 33 PPP 70.7% PP Share career-highs
- 3-Yr Avg: 66 Pts, 10 G
🎯 Jacob Trouba, D | 2022 Yahoo ADP: 107.3 | PTS. PREDICTION: 9 Goals, 39 Points
- Last Season: 39 Pts, 11 G in 81 GP (39-point Pace)
- 207 Hits (2.56/GM) career-high
- 177 BLKs (2.19/GM)
- 3-Yr Avg: 34 Pts, 9 G
🎯 Igor Shesterkin, G | 2022 Yahoo ADP: 8.9 | PREDICTION: 65 Starts (79% Net Share), 36 Wins
- Last Season: 35-13-4, 2.07 GAA, .935 SV%, 39.86 GSAx
- 3-Yr Avg: 37-17-4, 2.31 GAA, .928 SV%
Philadelphia Flyers
25-46-11 (8th in Metro) | GF/GM: 2.56 (31st) | GA/GM: 3.59 (27th) | GF%: 41.67 (30th) | CF%: 47.32 (26th) | PP%: 12.6 (32nd) | PK%: 75.7 (26th)
Schedule Notes: The Philadelphia Flyers have 15 back-to-back sets this season, tied for 2nd most with the New York Islanders and the Pittsburgh Penguins. 30% of their games are played on “light days” (fewer than 50% of teams in action).
Key Additions: Nicholas Deslauriers (UFA – MIN), Tony DeAngelo (UFA – CAR)
Key Departures: Martin Jones (UFA – SEA)
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Top Fantasy Targets
🎯 Sean Couturier, C | 2022 Yahoo ADP: 156.3 | PTS. PREDICTION: 30 Goals, 75 Points
- Last Season: 17 Pts, 6 G in 29 GP (48-point Pace)
- 7.6 iSH% lowest since 2012-2013
- 6.0 tEVSH% career-low
- 56.7 IPP 2nd lowest of career
- 3-Yr Avg: 67 Pts, 26 G
🎯 Travis Konecney, Position | 2022 Yahoo ADP: N/A | PTS. PREDICTION: 26 Goals, 62 Points
- Last Season: 52 Pts, 16 G in 79 GP (54-point Pace)
- 7.3 iSH% career-low, 2.8 SOG/GM career-high
- 53% PP Share, 17:37 TOI career-highs
- Just 9 of 36 assists were secondary. 0.39 A2/60 22% below 3-yr average.
- 3-Yr Avg: 61 Pts, 21 G
🎯 James Van Riemsdyk, Position | 2022 Yahoo ADP: N/A | PTS. PREDICTION: 25 Goals, 50 Points
- Last Season: 38 Pts, 24 G in x GP (38-point Pace)
- 7.6 tEVSH%
- 3-Yr Avg: 49 Pts, 24 G
🎯 Kevin Hayes, Position | 2022 Yahoo ADP: N/A | PTS. PREDICTION: 24 Goals, 50 Points
- Last Season: 31 Pts, 10 G in 48 GP (53-point Pace)
- 7.9 iSH% career-low
- 3-Yr Avg: 49 Pts, 21 G
🎯 Joel Farabee, Position | 2022 Yahoo ADP: N/A | PTS. PREDICTION: 23 Goals, 51 Points
- Last Season: 34 Pts, 17 G in 63 GP (44-point Pace)
- 10.8 tEVSH% average the past 3 seasons.
- 3-Yr Avg: 45 Pts, 22 G
🎯 Cam Atkinson, Position | 2022 Yahoo ADP: N/A | PTS. PREDICTION: 24 Goals, 54 Points
- Last Season: 50 Pts, 23 G in 73 GP (56-point Pace)
- 10.5 tEVSH% elevated
- 3-Yr Avg: 52 Pts, 24 G
🎯 Tony DeAngelo, D | 2022 Yahoo ADP: 120.4 | PTS. PREDICTION: 14 Goals, 65 Points
- Last Season: 51 Pts, 10 G in 64 GP (65-point Pace)
- 3-Yr Avg: 63 Pts, 15 G
🎯 Ivan Provorov, D | 2022 Yahoo ADP: 163.7 | PTS. PREDICTION: 11 Goals, 42 Points
- Last Season: 31 Pts, 9 G in 79 GP (32-point Pace)
- 3-Yr Avg: 38 Pts, 12 G
🎯 Rasmus Ristolainen, D | 2022 Yahoo ADP: N/A | PTS. PREDICTION: 7 Goals, 32 Points
- Last Season: 16 Pts, 2 G in 66 GP (20-point Pace)
- 2.1 iSH%, 1.5 SOG/GM career-lows
- 230 Hits (3.48 Hits/GM), 125 BLKs (1.89/GM)
- 3-Yr Avg: 30 Pts, 5 G
🎯 Carter Hart, G | 2022 Yahoo ADP: 170.0 | PREDICTION: 53 Starts (65% Net Share), 28 Wins
- Last Season: 13-24-7, 3.16 GAA, .905 SV%, -11.08 GSAx
- 3-Yr Avg: 24-25-8, 2.97 GAA, .905 SV%
Pittsburgh Penguins
46-25-11 (3rd in Metro) | GF/GM: 3.28 (11th) | GA/GM: 2.71 (5th) | GF%: 54.79 (10th) | CF%: 52.02 (10th) | PP%: 20.2 (19th) | PK%: 84.4 (3rd)
Schedule Notes: The Pittsburgh Penguins have 15 back-to-back sets this season, tied for 2nd most with the Islanders and Flyers. 3% of their games are played on “light days” (fewer than 50% of teams in action).
Key Additions: Drake Caggiula (UFA – BUF), Jan Rutta (UFA – TB), Jeff Petry (Trade W/ MTL), Ryan Poehling (Trade W/ MTL), Ty Smith (Trade W/ NJD)
Key Departures: John Marino (Trade W/ NJD), Mike Matheson (Trade W/ MTL), Louis Domingue (UFA – NYR)
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Top Fantasy Targets
🎯 Sidney Crosby, C | 2022 Yahoo ADP: 18.9 | PTS. PREDICTION: 35 Goals, 95 Points
- Last Season: 84 Pts, 31 G in 69 GP (100-point Pace)
- 3-Yr Avg: 96 Pts, 35 G
🎯 Jake Guentzel, LW | 2022 Yahoo ADP: 33.1 | PTS. PREDICTION: 44 Goals, 92 Points
- Last Season: 84 Pts, 40 G in 76 GP (91-point Pace)
- 71.7% PP Share, 22 PPP career-highs
- 3-Yr Avg: 88 Pts, 40 G
🎯 Evgeni Malkin, C | 2022 Yahoo ADP: 61.8 | PTS. PREDICTION: 36 Goals, 88 Points
- Last Season: 42 Pts, 20 G in 41 GP (84-point Pace)
- 2020-2021 appears to have been an outliner, producing at a rate of 0.85 Pts/GM – a career-low.
- 3-Yr Avg: 92 Pts, 34 G
🎯 Bryan Rust, RW | 2022 Yahoo ADP: 95.9 | PTS. PREDICTION: 35 Goals, 75 Points
- Last Season: 58 Pts, 24 G in 60 GP (79-point Pace)
- 67.1% PP Share, 21 PPP career-highs
- 3.0 SOG/GM career-high
- 3-Yr Avg: 75 Pts, 35 G
🎯 Rickard Rakell, LW/RW | 2022 Yahoo ADP: 170.8 | PTS. PREDICTION: 21 Goals, 55 Points
- Last Season: 41 Pts, 20 G in 70 GP (48-point Pace)
- 52.6 IPP career-low
- 3-Yr Avg: 48 Pts, 19 G
🎯 Jeff Carter, C | 2022 Yahoo ADP: N/A | PTS. PREDICTION: 20 Goals, 45 Points
- Last Season: 45 Pts, 19 G in 76 GP (49-point Pace)
- 3-Yr Avg: 44 Pts, 23 G
🎯 Kasperi Kapanen, RW | 2022 Yahoo ADP: N/A | PTS. PREDICTION: 15 Goals, 42 Points
- Last Season: 32 Pts, 11 G in 79 GP (33-point Pace)
- 8.5 iSH% career-low
- 110 Hits career-high
- 7.3 tEVSH% lowest since 2017-2018
- 3-Yr Avg: 42 Pts, 15 G
🎯 Kris Letang, D | 2022 Yahoo ADP: 59.4 | PTS. PREDICTION: 15 Goals, 70 Points
- Last Season: 68 Pts, 10 G in 78 GP (71-point Pace)
- 4.7 iSH% lowest since 2017-2018
- 2.19 Hits/GM career-high
- 3-Yr Avg: 67 Pts, 14 G
🎯 Jeff Petry, D | 2022 Yahoo ADP: 146.2 | PTS. PREDICTION: 12 Goals, 45 Points
- Last Season: 27 Pts, 6 G in 68 GP (33-point Pace)
- 4.8 iSH% lowest since sophomore season
- 1.8 SOG/GM lowest since 2014-2015
- 2.06 Hits/GM
- 3-Yr Avg: 46 Pts, 12 G
🎯 Tristan Jarry, G | 2022 Yahoo ADP: 63.8 | PREDICTION: 58 Starts (70% Net Share), 36 Wins
- Last Season: 34-18-6, 2.42 GAA, .919 SV%, 5.92 GSAx
- 3-Yr Avg: 36-18-5, 2.52 GAA, .917 SV%
Washington Capitals
44-26-12 (4th in Metro) | GF/GM: 3.29 (10th) | GA/GM: 2.95 (13th) | GF%: 52.73 (13th) | CF%: 50.92 (12th) | PP%: 18.8 (23rd) | PK%: 80.4 (12th)
Schedule Notes: The Washington Capitals have 11 back-to-back sets this season, tied for 4th fewest with Anaheim and Los Angeles. 33% of their games are played on “light days” (fewer than 50% of teams in action).
Key Additions: Connor Brown (Trade W/ OTT), Dylan Strome (UFA – CHI), Erik Gustafsson (UFA – CHI), Darcy Kuemper (UFA – COL), Charlie Lindgren (Trade W/ STL)
Key Departures: Justin Schultz (UFA – SEA), Vitek Vanecek (Trade W/ NJD), Ilya Samsonov (Trade W/ TOR)
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Top Fantasy Targets
🎯 Alex Ovechkin, LW | 2022 Yahoo ADP: 13.0 | PTS. PREDICTION: 52 Goals, 84 Points
- Last Season: 90 Pts, 50 G in 77 GP (96-point Pace)
- 1.17 Pts/GM highest rate since 2012-2013
- 93.6% PP Share career-high
- 2.01 Hits/GM – Has not dipped below 2 hits per game for the past 4 seasons.
- ⚠️11.9 tEVSH%
- 3-Yr Avg: 86 Pts, 53 G
🎯 Evgeny Kuznetsov, C | 2022 Yahoo ADP: 67.3 | PTS. PREDICTION: 24 Goals, 82 Points
- Last Season: 78 Pts, 24 G in 79 GP (81-point Pace)
- 2.6 SOG/GM career-high
- 3:43 PPTOI, 20:17 ATOI career-highs
- Averaging 74% OZ Starts the past two seasons. Prior to that he ranged from 45% to 58%.
- 3-Yr Avg: 71 Pts, 23 G
🎯 Anthony Mantha, LW/RW | 2022 Yahoo ADP: 164.8 | PTS. PREDICTION: 23 Goals, 49 Points
- Last Season: 23 Pts, 9 G in 37 GP (51-point Pace)
- 15:10 TOI lowest since rookie season
- 2.2 SOG/GM lowest since rookie season
- 33.9% PP Share career-low
- ⚠️11.1 tEVSH% – career average is 7.97%
- 3-Yr Avg: 54 Pts, 23 G
🎯 TJ Oshie, C/RW | 2022 Yahoo ADP: 160.6 | PTS. PREDICTION: 26 Goals, 60 Points
- Last Season: 25 Pts, 11 G in 44 GP (47-point Pace)
- 1.8 SOG/GM lowest since 2017-2018
- 14.3 iSH% below 3-yr (18.7%) and career (14.7%) averages.
- 1.95 Hits/GM
- 8.41 tEVSH%. Average of 10.41 tEVSH% from 2018-2021.
- 3-Yr Avg: 58 Pts, 29 G
🎯 Dylan Strome, C/RW | 2022 Yahoo ADP: 171.9 | PTS. PREDICTION: 21 Goals, 55 Points
- Last Season: 48 Pts, 22 G in 69 GP (57-point Pace)
- 32 Pts in the final 39 games of the season, a 67-point pace. Part of the reason was an uptick in power-play deployment and production
- On-pace for 26 goals
- 17.5 iSH% career-high. Career average is 14.1%.
- 16 PPP, 17:26 TOI, 70.7% OZ Starts career-highs
- 3-Yr Avg: 50 Pts, 21 G
🎯 Connor Brown, C/RW | 2022 Yahoo ADP: N/A | PTS. PREDICTION: 20 Goals, 50 Points
- Last Season: 39 Pts, 10 G in 64 GP (50-point Pace)
- 8.3 iSH% career-low
- 45.1% PP Share and 20:04 TOI both second-most of his career
- 3-Yr Avg: 50 Pts, 20 G
🎯 John Carlson, D | 2022 Yahoo ADP: 38.9 | PTS. PREDICTION: 15 Goals, 71 Points
- Last Season: 71 Pts, 17 G in 78 GP (75-point Pace)
- 8.7 iSH%, 17 goals career-highs
- 8.9 tEVSH% lowest since 2015-2016
- 3-Yr Avg: 78 Pts, 17 G
🎯 Darcy Kuemper, G | 2022 Yahoo ADP: 64.5 | PREDICTION: 55 Starts (67% Net Share), 34 Wins
- Last Season: 37-12-4, 2.54 GAA, .921 SV%, 16.23 GSAx
- 3-Yr Avg: 33-18-5, 2.46 GAA, .920 SV%
Contest Announcement | Hacks Holiday!
Help the Hacks celebrate 100 episodes of fantasy fun! We truly appreciate all the support we’ve received from listeners, partners, and guests, making this first 100 episodes a genuinely enjoyable experience. All of us on the podcast enjoy creating fantasy hockey content, and will do so for as long as people will listen. To show our appreciation, we are sending one listener and a guest on a “Hacks Holiday” to Las Vegas next February! Thank you to our partners – Lucky Bastard Distillers & Left Wing Lock – for their support in making this contest possible. Winner will receive:
- 2 tickets to a Vegas Golden Knights home game in February, 2023.
- 2 round-trip tickets to Las Vegas
- 3-night accommodations at a hotel near T-Mobile Arena
- 1 year FREE subscription to the Left Wing Lock iPhone app!
Go to the contest page – FantasyHockeyHacks.com/HacksHoliday – and follow the directions to enter the contest.
“HACK THE CODE” Number For Episode 79: 22
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