How To Win Your Fantasy Hockey League – Goalies & Zero G Draft Strategy

Fantasy Hockey Hacks

In the 22nd episode of the Fantasy Hockey Hacks Podcast; Devon, Bruce, and John conclude the How To Win Your Fantasy Hockey League series. In this fourth and final episode of the series, we’re going to discuss fantasy-relevant goaltenders for next season, including: bounce-back candidates, break-out candidates, which goalies have been the most productive over the past three seasons (in terms of Fantasy Points Per Game), and much more! Also, the Fantasy Hockey Hacks team is proud to announce our very first guest to the show, Nate Groot Nibbelink from ApplesAndGinos.com. Nate will be discussing the “Zero G” draft strategy, and how it could help you win your fantasy hockey league this season. You won’t want to miss this episode, be sure to download and listen wherever you listen to your podcasts.

Highlights:

Special guest Nate Groot Nibbelink from ApplesAndGinos.com discusses the “Zero G” draft strategy to help you optimize your fantasy hockey draft and win your league!
Andrei Svechnikov and Sean Couturier sign long-term contracts
Carey Price will be healthy and ready for training camp
The Carolina Hurricanes tendered an offer sheet to Jesperi Kotkaniemi

Twitter | @FHHacks
Instagram | @FantasyHockeyHacks
Questions? Email us at FantasyHockeyHacks@Gmail.com

Hockey News | August 22-29

August 26 | Andrei Svechnikov agreed to an eight-year $62M contract with the Carolina Hurricanes. The deal will pay him an AAV of $7.75M through the 2028-29 season.

8 MORE YEARS! pic.twitter.com/cXQWBfObMJ
— Carolina Hurricanes (@Canes) August 26, 2021

August 26 | Sean Couturier agreed to an eight-year $62M contract with the Philadelphia Flyers. The deal will pay him an AAV of $7.75M through the 2029-2030 season.

Sean Couturier, signed 8x$7.75M by PHI, is an elite two-way centre who’s good at pretty much everything. #Flyers pic.twitter.com/yMO842gJ09
— JFresh (@JFreshHockey) August 26, 2021

August 26 | Carey Price is expected to be ready when the Canadiens begin training camp next month after the goalie had knee surgery July 23, coach Dominique Ducharme said Thursday.

Carey Price is expected to be ready when the Canadiens begin training camp next month after the goalie had knee surgery July 23, coach Dominique Ducharme said Thursday.https://t.co/IHieaoo3KC
— NHL.com (@NHLdotcom) August 26, 2021

August 27 | The Carolina Hurricanes tendered an offer sheet to Jesperi Kotkaniemi for a 1-year $6.1M contract. Montreal has 7 days to match. According to Elliott Friedman, if Montreal does not match, Canadiens will receive a first- and a third-round pick as compensation. Will they match?

If Montreal does not match, Canadiens will receive a first- and a third-round pick as compensation
— Elliotte Friedman (@FriedgeHNIC) August 28, 2021

August 28 | According to Emily Kaplan from ESPN, it appears that the NHL, NHLPA, IIHF, and the IOC are closing in on an agreement to send NHL players to the 2022 Winter Olympics.

It’s been a moving target, but all signs point to a decision next week on whether NHL players are going to the 2022 Beijing Olympics or not.
Sources I’ve talked to suggest an agreement between NHL, NHLPA, IIHF & Olympic committee is close, just down to some final items.
— Emily Kaplan (@emilymkaplan) August 29, 2021

Special Guest | Nate Groot Nibbelink, ApplesAndGinos.com

Name | Nate Groot Nibbelink | Website: ApplesAndGinos.Wordpress.com | Twitter: @ApplesGinos

Nate has been playing fantasy hockey for over ten years now and started Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey in March 2020. Nate’s focus is to help people improve their process via how they think about the game and make decisions. All of Nate’s articles are posted to www.applesandginos.wordpress.com. From there you’ll be able to find links to everything else including his Discord Server where he is answering questions from members every day!

The Zero G Draft Strategy

Read Here ➡ https://bit.ly/3ylbxhq

What we discussed in the podcast:

What was the inspiration for this strategy? How did you come up with this?
How literal is the “zero” part of this strategy?
With This year’s group of goalies, in which round would you start drafting?
What would a typical 10 or 12 team draft look like for you (position by round)?
Can you give us a couple break-out candidates for next season?
Which goalies do you think will have bounce-back seasons?

Apples and Ginos Complete Goaltender Rankings

Our friend Nate from ApplesAndGinos.com was kind enough to provide his goalie rankings for 2021-2022. You can download a copy of that spreadsheet here.

Rapid Fire Segment

Nate’s Pre-Season Takes On 2021 NHL Awards

Who is your pick to win the Vezina this year? Andrei Vasilevskiy, TB
Who is your pick to win the Hart Trophy? Connor McDavid, EDM
Who is your pick to win the Rocket Richard Trophy? Auston Matthews, TOR
Who is your pick to win the Norris Trophy? Cale Makar, COL
Who is your pick to win the Selke Trophy? Alexander Barkov, FLA
Who is your pick to win the Calder Trophy? Marco Rossi, MIN
Who is your pick to win the Jack Adams Trophy? Gerrard Gallant, NYR
Who is your pick to win the Presidents Trophy? Vegas Golden Knights
Stanley Cup Final matchup? Colorado Avalanche Vs. Florida Panthers
Stanley Cup Winner? Colorado Avalanche
Favourite NHL team? Personal – Toronto Maple Leafs, Fantasy Hockey (2021) – Florida Panthers

Win Your Fantasy Hockey League | Guide To Goalies

Tiers

We have ranked the goaltenders by fantasy points per game (FPPG) over the past three seasons. ESPN’s standard scoring system was used to calculate fantasy point totals, and includes wins (5 points), saves (0.2 points), goals-against (-1 point), shutouts (3 points), and overtime losses (1 point) . As a rough guideline, we have broken the players out into “tiers”.

Tier 0

7.00+ Fantasy Points Per Game – Andrei Vasilevskiy/Franchise Goaltender

There is only one goaltender in tier “0”, Andrei Vasilevskiy. There are a number of very good to elite goaltenders in tier 1, many legitimate starters in tier 2, and loads of options at the replacement or streamer level in tier 3.

For the second-straight season, Andrei Vasilevskiy is going to be drafted in the first round. The unquestioned #1 goalie in the NHL, based both on individual talent and the team around him. Vasilevskiy is also very durable, having played at least 50 games per season (on-pace for 62 least year) going back to 2016-2017. 3-year average numbers are 43 Wins, 6 SO, .922 SV% and 2.40 GAA. Additionally, Vasilevskiy had ZERO really bad starts (RBS%, posting a save percentage below .850) last year, and his quality starts percentage (QS%, games with SV% above the league average, and games with fewer than 20 shots and a SV% above .885) over the past three seasons is 61.4, good enough for 10th overall (impressive considering how many games he has started). Over or under on 42 Wins, 5 SO?

Tier 1

6.00 to 7.00 Fantasy Points Per Game – Elite Goaltender/Workhorse

With Fleury moving on to Chicago, Lehner finally has a chance to be a workhorse goalie for a contender. With Laurent Broissot as the Vegas backup, expect Lehner (assuming health) to see roughly 70% of the starts (between 55 and 60 starts). Vegas has 13 back-to-backs, so it’s safe to assume that Broissot gets one start in each, along with another 15 or so starts. 3-year avg numbers are 34 Wins, 5 SO, .923 SV%, 2.43 GAA, 55.4 QS%, 12.9 RBS%. Lehner will be the second or third goalie off the board in drafts this fall. Over or under on 35 wins, 4 SO?

The reigning Vezina Trophy winner should still be a valuable fantasy commodity after his move to an overhauled Chicago team. With Toews and Dach expected to be fully healthy, along with the newly acquired Seth Jones (and to a lesser extent Jake McCabe); this roster looks set to compete for a playoff spot. Over the past three seasons, Fleury is your leader in shutouts, and sits 3rd in wins. 3-year average numbers are 36 wins, 8 shutouts, .914 SV%, 2.47 GAA, and 57.5 QS% (over 72% last year). Similar to Lehner, we expect to see roughly 70% of the starts go to Fleury next season. Fleury’s peripherals will likely take a hit next season, but 30+ wins is definitely possible. Over or under on 32 wins, 4 SO?

After Vasilevskiy, you can make an argument for either Lehner or Hellebuyck as the next goalie off the board. For us, Hellebuyck is likely the safer option, given that we have seen his ability to handle a large start volume (around 80% of the starts since 2016-2017). Hellebuyck is also 2nd in Wins, and 3rd in shutouts over the past three seasons; and excluding 2018-2019, his QS% has been above 55% over the past 4 seasons. 3-year average numbers are 32 wins, 4 shutouts, .917 SV%, 2.70 GAA. With the additions of Brendan Dillon and Nate Schmidt, I would expect Hellebuycks peripherals to improve this season. Over or under on 35 wins, 5 SO?

Igor Shesterkin has proven over his first two seasons that he is the real deal. With a .921 SV% (1oth), and .852 HDSV% (4th) the past two years, it’s easy to see why fantasy managers are excited about this player. Shesterkin has a 61.7 QS%, and just 6 really bad starts (10.6 RBS%); impressive numbers when you consider that this team was supposed to be in a complete rebuild until recently. With his team’s stock on the rise, and his performance to date, expect Shesterkin to be the 5th or 6th goalie selected; and probably no later than the 5th round of most drafts (ranked 38th overall by NHL.com). Over or under on 30 wins, 4 SO?

Darcy Kuempers fantasy stock is a huge riser after signing with the Avs this summer. Colorado generated 34.6 SOG/GM (2nd), while allowing just 25.4 SOG/GM (1st); they were also 1st in goals for (3.52/GM) and 3rd in goals against (2.36/GM). Special teams were very good as well, both the PP and PK were ranked 8th. While playing for Arizona over the past three seasons, Kuemper still managed to post elite peripherals – .922 SV% (7th), 2.35 GAA (9th), and 9 shutouts (12th)! 3-year average numbers are 29 Wins, 5 shutouts, .922 SV%, 2.35 GAA, 65.8 QS%. This looks like a recipe for success, but BUYER BEWARE; Kuemper is injury prone, and has only played more than 30 games ONCE (55 GP in 2018-2019) over the past 4 seasons. Over or under on 33 wins, 4 SO?

Tier 2

5.00 to 6.00 Fantasy Points Per Game – Legitimate Starter

The playoffs did not end well for Tristan Jarry and the Pittsburgh Penguins. Fortunately for Jarry, the coaches and management still appear to have faith in the young goalie. Excluding the first quarter of the season, where Jarry went 2-4-1 witH an .857 SV% and 1 quality start, the Pens goalie was actually pretty solid. From February 6th to May 4th, Jarry’s record was 22-6-2 (only Vasilevskiy had more wins in that stretch with 23) with 2 shutouts, a .919 SV%, 2.49 GAA, 10.37 GSAA, and a 62.5 QS% (1st with 20 quality starts)! In each of the past two seasons, Jarry has had one bad quarter, but other than that he has been good. Fantasy managers will likely still be sour on Jarry come draft day, driving down his ADP and making him a real bargain pick this Fall. Over or under on 33 wins, 3 SO?

With Freddie Andersen out with an injury, Jack Campbell stormed into the season with an 11-game winning streak, taking over the starting gig. Campbell has pedigree (11th overall pick in 2010), and it appears that he just needed a real opportunity. In 22 games, Campbell went 17-3-2-2 with .921 SV% (11th), 2.15 GAA, and 59.1 QS%. Campbell will split time with the newly acquired Mrazek, but I would still expect between 45 and 50 starts. Over or under on 28 wins, 3 SO?

For Linus Ullmark to maintain a .911 SV% and a GAA under 3 in Buffalo over the past three seasons is truly remarkable! Ullmark’s save percentage is the same as Freddie Andersen, Jake Allen, Mackenzie Blackwood, Petr Mrazek, Jacob Markstrom, and just behind Carey Price (.912 SV%). Similar to Kuemper, a move from a bottom-dweller to a contender will do wonders for Ullmark’s fantasy stock; even if he does have to split time with Swayman and/or Rask (if he returns in the new year). Based on the contract he just signed, Ullmark should be given the first crack at the starting position. At worst, he will be part of a tandem for the second half of the season. That uncertainty of deployment will keep Ullmark’s ADP lower, so just keep an eye on goalie splits during pre-season. Over or under on 28 wins, 2 SO?

Last year Carolina had the 3rd ranked PK (85.2%), and the 2nd rank PP (25.6%), an improvement over Toronto’s special teams where they ranked 16th on the PP (20%), and 24th on the PK (78.6%). That in itself should increase Andersen’s value for next season; paired with the injury-prone Raanta as his back-up next season and Andersen should be in line to receive the bulk of the starts for Carolina; assuming he stays healthy. Note, Andersen’s SV% (.917, .909, .895), GAA (2.77, 2.85, 2.96), and GSAA have all been on the decline the past few seasons, so there is still some risk in drafting him next year. That said, Andersen should be available later than we are used to seeing during his time in Toronto and Carolina is a very good possession team. Over or under on 34 wins, 3 SO?

Spencer Knight impressed the hockey world with 4 wins in 4 games played at the end of the regular season; and then went on to steal two starts from Bobrovsky and Driedger in their playoff series with the eventual Tampa Bay lightning. Knight’s numbers over those 6 games: 5-1-0, .925 SV%, 2.23 GAA, and 2.62 GSAA. It’s a small sample size, but the numbers are encouraging regardless. The problem is that Knight is at least going to start the season as part of a tandem with Sergei Borbovsky. Be patient though, as “Bob” will almost certainly flop at some point next season. The other problem is that the secret on Knight is out, so his ADP will likely be inflated on draft day. Over or under on 25 wins, 3 SO?

Last season was tough for Demko and the Canucks, having missed the playoffs, and a good chunk of the regular season due to COVID. The first quarter of the season was particularly rough for Demko, going 4-6-0, with an .899 SV%, 3.46 GAA, and -3.09 GSAA. However, from February 14th to May 18th, here are Demko’s numbers: 12-12-1, 1 SO, .921 SV%, 2.60 GAA, 11.17 GSAA. With Vancouver making some nice adjustments to their roster (OEL and Garland), expect to see a very solid season from Demko. Halak will take some starts from Demko; but there is no doubt that he is the starter and goalie of the future. Over or under on 30 wins, 2 SO?

Calvin Petersen has been a solid goaltender through his first 54 NHL starts, posting a .916 SV% (23rd the past three seasons), 2.81 GAA, 12.26 GSAA, 50 QS%, and just 4 really bad starts (impressive given that the Kings have not been very good over the past three seasons). The Kings improved significantly this summer, bringing in Viktor Arvidsson via trade, as well as Phillip Danault and Alexander Edler via free agency. I expect the Kings to be contending for a playoff spot sooner than later, but many are still down on the Kings for next season, making Petersen a very affordable starter next season. The young goalie was on pace for roughly 50 starts last season, and with the rapid decline of Jonathan Quick, expect Petersen to at least that many next year. Over or under on 23 wins, 2 SO?

Tier 3

5.00 Points Or Less Per Game – Average/Backup Goaltender

It’s no secret that Cart Hart was one of the biggest disappointments last season in both fantasy and reality. Many fantasy managers expected big things from the young goalie, drafting him on average at 47.3. Philadelphia made some big changes this off-season, bringing in Ryan Ellis, Rasmus Ristolainen, Keith Yandle, and Cam Atkinson. They also locked-up their top center in Sean Couturier. I have no doubt that the Flyers will be better next season, and Hart’s win totals and peripherals should reflect that. Last season, Hart had a .877 SV% and a 3.67 GAA; but the two seasons prior he had save percentages of .914 and .917. Truly a boom or bust pick, but Hart’s ADP should be much lower this upcoming season; to the point where it should be easy to return value on your draft capital. Over or under on 30 wins, 3 SO?

With a .923 SV% (7th), 2.40 GAA (13th), 12.64 GSAA, and 52.9 QS% through his first 36 NHL games, Pavel Francouz has been a very serviceable back-up for the Colorado Avalanche. After missing all of last season due to a lower-body injury, many fantasy managers will be overlooking him this Fall. In general, Francouz is a streamer; however, Darcy Kuemper has a long history of injury concerns and Francouz could quickly become a top fantasy goalie if/when Kuemper goes down. Over or under on 21 wins, 1 SO?

2018-2021 TOP 30 Goalies | Wins

ANDREI VASILEVSKIY, 105 Wins
CONNOR HELLEBUYCK, 89 Wins
MARC-ANDRE FLEURY, 88 Wins
SERGEI BOBROVSKY, 79 Wins
FREDERIK ANDERSEN, 78 Wins
CAREY PRICE, 74 Wins
JACOB MARKSTROM, 73 Wins
JORDAN BINNINGTON, 72 Wins
TUUKKA RASK, 68 Wins
MARTIN JONES, 68 Wins
PHILIPP GRUBAUER, 66 Wins
BRADEN HOLTBY, 64 Wins
MIKE SMITH, 63 Wins
MATT MURRAY, 59 Wins
SEMYON VARLAMOV, 58 Wins
ROBIN LEHNER, 57 Wins
MIKKO KOSKINEN, 56 Wins
DAVID RITTICH, 56 Wins
JUUSE SAROS, 55 Wins
JOHN GIBSON, 55 Wins
DARCY KUEMPER, 53 Wins
PETR MRAZEK, 50 Wins
JAROSLAV HALAK, 49 Wins
DEVAN DUBNYK, 49 Wins
CARTER HART, 49 Wins
BEN BISHOP, 48 Wins
THOMAS GREISS, 47 Wins
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD, 46 Wins
TRISTAN JARRY, 45 Wins
ANTON KHUDOBIN, 44 Wins

2018-2021 TOP 30 Goalies | Shutouts

MARC-ANDRE FLEURY, 19 Shutouts
ANDREI VASILEVSKIY, 14 Shutouts
PHILIPP GRUBAUER, 12 Shutouts
CONNOR HELLEBUYCK, 12 Shutouts
TUUKKA RASK, 11 Shutouts
SEMYON VARLAMOV, 11 Shutouts
JUUSE SAROS, 10 Shutouts
BEN BISHOP, 10 Shutouts
JAROSLAV HALAK, 10 Shutouts
PETR MRAZEK, 10 Shutouts
SERGEI BOBROVSKY, 10 Shutouts
DARCY KUEMPER, 9 Shutouts
CAREY PRICE, 9 Shutouts
ROBIN LEHNER, 8 Shutouts
JORDAN BINNINGTON, 8 Shutouts
MATT MURRAY, 7 Shutouts
THOMAS GREISS, 7 Shutouts
ELVIS MERZLIKINS, 7 Shutouts
JACOB MARKSTROM, 6 Shutouts
MIKE SMITH, 6 Shutouts
ALEXANDAR GEORGIEV, 6 Shutouts
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD, 6 Shutouts
JOHN GIBSON, 6 Shutouts
MARTIN JONES, 6 Shutouts
TRISTAN JARRY, 5 Shutouts
ANTON KHUDOBIN, 5 Shutouts
JAKE ALLEN, 5 Shutouts
CASEY DESMITH, 5 Shutouts
MIKKO KOSKINEN, 5 Shutouts
CAM TALBOT, 5 Shutouts

2018-2021 TOP 30 Goalies | QS%

A metric from Dobber Hockey (https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com), a quality start is defined as:

Games with a save percentage above the league average
Games with fewer than 20 shots and a save percentage above .885

JEREMY SWAYMAN, 90% QS
ILYA SOROKIN, 68.2% QS
FILIP GUSTAVSSON, 66.7% QS
DARCY KUEMPER, 65.8% QS
ANTON FORSBERG, 63.6% QS
BEN BISHOP, 63.3% QS
CHRIS DRIEDGER, 62.9% QS
TUUKKA RASK, 62.2% QS
IGOR SHESTERKIN, 61.7% QS
ANDREI VASILEVSKIY, 61.2% QS
ALEX NEDELJKOVIC, 60.7% QS
ANTON KHUDOBIN, 59.2% QS
JACOB MARKSTROM, 58.9% QS
TRISTAN JARRY, 58.1% QS
MARC-ANDRE FLEURY, 57.5% QS
FREDERIK ANDERSEN, 57.4% QS
JORDAN BINNINGTON, 56.5% QS
CAREY PRICE, 56.4% QS
THATCHER DEMKO, 56.3% QS
PHILIPP GRUBAUER, 55.8% QS
JAROSLAV HALAK, 55.6% QS
SEMYON VARLAMOV, 55.4% QS
ROBIN LEHNER, 55.4% QS
JAKE ALLEN, 54.5% QS
JUUSE SAROS, 54.2% QS
THOMAS GREISS, 53.7% QS
CONNOR HELLEBUYCK, 53.6% QS
ANTTI RAANTA, 52.6% QS
PETR MRAZEK, 52.2% QS
PHEONIX COPLEY, 51.9% QS

2020-2021 TOP 30 Goalies | HDSV% (Min. 10 GP)

Jeremy Swayman, 0.895
Laurent Brossoit, 0.88
Philipp Grubauer, 0.859
Igor Shesterkin, 0.854
Andrei Vasilevskiy, 0.85
Alex Nedeljkovic, 0.848
Semyon Varlamov, 0.847
Marc-Andre Fleury, 0.846
Mike Smith, 0.842
Casey DeSmith, 0.839
Cal Petersen, 0.838
Marcus Hogberg, 0.838
Filip Gustavsson, 0.837
Juuse Saros, 0.836
Robin Lehner, 0.833
Tuukka Rask, 0.832
Petr Mrazek, 0.83
Thatcher Demko, 0.83
Jonas Johansson, 0.828
Connor Hellebuyck, 0.827
Adin Hill, 0.822
Dustin Tokarski, 0.821
Carey Price, 0.82
Scott Wedgewood, 0.82
Antti Raanta, 0.819
Elvis Merzlikins, 0.818
Linus Ullmark, 0.817
Chris Driedger, 0.816
Kevin Lankinen, 0.816
Kaapo Kahkonen, 0.816

Bounce-Back Candidates

Tristan Jarry, PIT
Frederik Andersen, CAR
Carter Hart, PHI
Ilya Samsonov, WSH

Break-Out Candidates

Spencer Knight, FLA
Linus Ullmark, BOS
Calvin Petersen, LAK
Thatcher Demko, VAN

Complete NHL Goalie Rankings

We have put together a spreadsheet that organizes all players by fantasy points per game over the past three seasons. You can download a copy of that spreadsheet here.