NHL Fantasy Preview – Week 10
Episode 92 of the Fantasy Hockey Hacks Podcast! Week 9 of the NHL continued to dazzle hockey fans, highlighted by a record-setting performance from Tage Thompson, more magic from Mitch Marner, an inspiring return from Kris Letang, and much more! As we do each week, we’ll check in on John’s list, “hack” our way through the NHL’s Headlines, go through the week’s schedule, make recommendations for waiver wire adds, and discuss our weekly Top 200 Rankings – Powered By Left Wing Lock.
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- Enter to win a Hacks Holiday in Vegas!
- Tage Thompson is unstoppable
- Connor McDavid continues to impress
- Stuart Skinner stranglehold on the net in Edmonton
- Jeff Skinner suspension
- Nathan MacKinnon to miss 4 weeks
- Alexander Barkov back in action
- Kris Letang returns shortly after second stroke!
- Mitch Marner magic continues, 22-game point streak intact
- UPDATED RANKINGS!
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If you have been listening to our podcast for a while, you’ve undoubtedly heard about “John’s List”; which is basically John’s $h!t list of players past and present. If you have any suggestions for players/subjects we should add to the list, let us know!
Jeff Skinner – For cross-checking Jake Guentzel in the face…
Buffalo’s Jeff Skinner has been suspended for three games for Cross-checking #Penguins Jake Guentzel. pic.twitter.com/ujhX03NGgh
— Bob Pompeani (@KDPomp) December 10, 2022
Fantasy Lock Of The Week (December 5 – 11, 2022) | Presented by Left Wing Lock
🔥Tage Thompson, RW, 100% Rostered (Yahoo)
Tage Thompson TIED A FRANCHISE RECORD – 5 GOALS IN A GAME! The record was previously set by Dave Andreychuk back in 1986. Thompson also tied an NHL record, 4 goals in a single period; becoming just the 4th NHLer to do so! 41 points and 21 goals in 28 games played to date this season; Thompson has easily been one of the biggest steals in fantasy hockey this season (132.9 ADP). 7 Points (5 Goals), 18 SOG, +2, 62% PP Share, 19:01 ATOI in 3 games played during week 9.
All 5 Tage Thompson goals from last night. pic.twitter.com/OnyOanPVFS
— The Charging Buffalo (@TheChargingBUF) December 8, 2022
Special Consideration: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (7 points, 3 goals) and Stuart Skinner (3 quality starts, led all NHL netminders in shots against – 112 and saves – 105, while posting a .938 SV%!).
Headlines W/ The Hacks | December 5 – 11, 2022
Injuries News: The Bad
- Ryan McDonagh of the Nashville Predators will miss the next 2-4 weeks with an upper-body injury
- Nathan MacKinnon of the Avalanche will miss the next 4 weeks with an upper body injury
- Petr Mrazek has been placed on IR by the Black Hawks with a Lower body (groin) injury
- Joonis Korpisalo left Friday night’s games vs the Flames with a lower body injury, he will out for about a week
Injury News: The Good
- Alex Iafallo returned to the Kings lineup on Tuesday. He missed 23 games with a lower body injury. He had 5 points in 4 games before being injured.
- Aleksander Barkov returned to the Panthers lineup on Wednesday vs Detroit. He registered an assist in his return
- Valeri Nichushkin returned to the Colorado Avalanche lineup on Friday vs the New York Rangers
- Kris Letang returned to the Penguins line up on Saturday vs Buffalo, 12 days after suffering a stroke
Injury News: Keep an eye on…
- Sean Monahan has now missed 2 games with a lower body injury
- Pavel Buchnevich has now missed the Blues last 2 games with a lower body injury
- Sebastian Aho of the Carolina Hurricanes missed practice on Wednesday with a lower body injury, he is not expected to play in Saturday’s game vs the Islanders
- Shea Theodore will miss the Golden Knights game on Sunday with an undisclosed injury
- Mitch Marner extended his point streak to 22 games on Saturday with a goal and assist vs the Flames
- The Toronto Maple Leafs have now registered a point in 14 Straight games. The team record is 16
- Jason Robertson has his 18 game point streak ended in a 4-0 shutout loss to the Leafs on Tuesday.
- Shane Wright scores his 1st goal of his NHL career against Jake Allen and the Montreal Canadiens
- Elias Pettersson is the first Canuck to score 30 points this season in just 26 games. The only 2 other Canuck players to do it in the same or less games. Daniel and Henrick Sedin
- Cale Makar recorded his 150th assist on Monday in just 204 games. 2nd fastest to reach the mark in NHL history. The fastest Sergei Zubov in 187 games.
- Tage Thompson of the Buffalo Sabres scored 5 goals in their game vs the Blue Jackets Wednesday night. He is now 1 of 4 that have scored 5 goals in a game in the last decade. The other 3 are Timo Meir (2022), Mika Zibanejad (2020) and Patrik Laine (2018)
- Also Wednesday night with a 4 point effort Connor McDavid reached the 50 point plateau in just 27 games.
- Buffalo Sabres winger Jeff Skinner has been suspended for 3 games for cross checking Penguins forward Jake Guentzel
- On Friday, Jack Hughes of the New Jersey Devils set a NHL record for the longest shift taken by a NHL player. 6 minutes and 2 seconds
Edge Work | NHL Schedule, Week 10
The segment where we put in the work to give you the EDGE in your fantasy hockey leagues!
Need To Know:
The NHL gets back to its typical schedule in week 10, with the three busiest days taking place on Tuesday (12), Thursday (12), and Saturday (13). There are a total of 54 games on the schedule; and a total of 4 “light days” (50% or fewer NHL teams in action) with Monday (6), Wednesday (3), Friday (3) and Sunday (5) being slower days.
In terms of optimizing the schedule, there are a total of 13 teams that play 4 games; but 2 of those teams (Calgary and Minnesota) are of particular interest as all 4 of their games take place on “light days”. The Flames have a fairly favorable -13 strength of schedule rating, taking on Montreal, Vancouver, St.Louis, and San Jose. Minnesota meanwhile, has a -12 strength of schedule rating with matchups against Edmonton, Detroit, Chicago, and Ottawa.
According to Left Wing Lock’s Strength Of Schedule metric, the San Jose Sharks have the most favourable schedule at -23; taking on Arizona, Los Angeles, and Calgary. The New York Islanders have the toughest schedule with a +19 strength of schedule rating and matchups with Boston, Arizona, and Las Vegas.
The Vancouver Canucks were already giving fantasy managers plenty of reasons to avoid them, now add just two games on the docket for week 10. Vancouver is the only team this week to play less than 3 games.
- Monday – 6 Games
- Tuesday – 12 Games
- Wednesday – 3 Games
- Thursday – 12 Games
- Friday – 3 Games
- Saturday – 13 Games
- Sunday – 5 Games
Edge Work | Waiver Wire Targets, NHL Week 10
Waiver wire targets will be focused on players with ownership ~50% or less. SOS = Strength of Schedule, according to Left Wing Lock. Lower number = Easier Schedule, Higher Number = Harder Schedule.
Top Waiver Wire Targets
🎯 Alex Killorn (LW/RW), TB | Rostered: 28% (Yahoo) | GP: 3 (Vs.SEA, Vs.CBJ, @MTL, -1 SOS) | Line: 2 (w/ Maroon & Colton, PP2)
- Make that 13 points and 3 goals in Killorn’s last 12 games played. Add to that, exposure to Steven Stamkos in the top 6 and deployment on the team’s second power play unit (which at times has featured Victor Hedman…). Note: 20 iSH% and 13.2 tEVSH% screams regression
🎯 Anthony Cirelli (C/LW), TB | Rostered: 24% (Yahoo) | GP: 3 (Vs.SEA, Vs.CBJ, @MTL, -1 SOS) | Line: 3 (w/ Point & Hagel, PP2)
- Mike (LWL) mentioned Cirelli in last week’s rankings update, and so we thought we should mention him here as a reminder. The 25-year old already has 12 shots on goal through 3 games played (4.0 SOG/GM), in addition to his 3 primary assists. It also appears that Cirelli and Killorn have swapped spots in the lineup; as the LWL app shows Cirelli lined up with Hagel and Point. NOTE: 6.8 tEVSH% suggests room for additional offense.
🎯 Jared McCann (C/LW), SEA | Rostered: 18% (Yahoo) | GP: 3 (@TB, @CAR, Vs.WPG, +5 SOS) | Line: 2 (w/ Beniers & Eberle, PP1)
- The former Penguin played a season-high 21:32 TOI in Tuesday’s matchup with the Canadiens, and appears to be trending to more ice time in general. On-pace for 61 points and 43 goals after posting 9 points (7 goals) in his last 10 games played. McCann also finds himself on the top power play unit. The production may not continue, but you might as well ride the wave while you can. NOTE: 23.5 iSH% is a career-high and obviously not sustainable. 11 tEVSH% is also a cause for concern.
🎯 Seth Jarvis (LW/RW), CAR | Rostered: 30% (Yahoo) | GP: 4 (@DET, Vs.SEA, Vs.DAL, Vs.PIT, +3 SOS) | Line: 1 (w/ Aho & Necas, PP2)
- Seth Jarvis is on a nice little run right now with 7 points and 2 goals in his last 9 games played. Not ground-breaking offence, but his deployment alongside Sebastian Aho and Martin Necas on the Cane’s top line certainly make him an appealing option. When you consider that Carolina plays 4 games this coming week, Jarvis has dual eligibility, and he receives time on the second power play unit, it becomes difficult to find reasons not to pick him up. NOTE: 9.1 iSH% is down from last year’s 15.5%, 6.6 tEVSH% leaves plenty of room for improvement
🎯 Andrew Copp (C/RW), DET | Rostered: 17% (Yahoo) | GP: 3 (Vs.CAR, @MIN, Vs.OTT, +6 SOS) | Line: 3 (w/ Erne & Sundqvist, PP2)
- After a bit of a slow start, the former Jet/Ranger has posted 9 points and 2 goals in his last 10 games played. It is worth noting though that Copp’s shot volume is way down this season at 1.3 SOG/GM and he is also converting at a lower 8.8% (3-year average of 11.8%). If Copp can get closer to his 3-year average of 2.1 SOG/GM and convert closer to his career average of 11.1%, he could be an excellent buy-low candidate. There is limited upside in a middle-6 role with secondary power play time, but worth a look anyway.
🎯 Alex Newhook (C/LW), COL | Rostered: 8% (Yahoo) | GP: 3 (Vs.PHI, Vs.BUF, Vs.NSH, -2 SOS) | Line: 1 (w/ Rantanen & Nichushkin, PP1)
- You know the injury bug has hit a team hard when Alex Newhook is your top line left winger, followed by Andrew Cogliano on the second line. Fortunately for Newhook, the injuries have provided him with a great opportunity to play with Rantanen and Nichushkin at even-strength, and even get some time on the top power play unit. 3 points (1 goal) in his last 4 games, while playing 4:06 PPTOI (72% PP Share) and 20:36 TOI! Shot volume is a concern at just 1.4 SOG/GM, and there is not a ton of category coverage; however, the deployment at this point is too good to pass on, and this week’s schedule looks fairly favourable. NOTE: 17.1 iSH% is certainly inflated, but his 6.8 tEVSH% shows potential for more offence.
🎯 Kevin Hayes (C), PHI | Rostered: 36% (Yahoo) | GP: 3 (@COL, @NJD, Vs.NYR +6 SOS) | Line: 1 (w/ Cates & Konecny, PP1)
- Things are not pretty in Philly (sorry Mike), but that doesn’t mean there is no fantasy value to be found – enter Kevin Hayes. On-pace for 82 points and 26 goals after scoring 28 points and 9 goals in his first 28 games of the season. Hayes is shooting a career-best 2.9 SOG/GM while also playing a career-high 19:06 TOI and 3:21 PPTOI (64.3% PP Share). The Flyers have a tough schedule this week, but Hayes is a great depth option, and worth stashing in my opinion. NOTE: 11.0 iSH% is above 3-year average (9.3%) and 10.0 tEVSH% is elevated as well.
🎯 Andrew Mangiapane (LW/RW), CGY | Rostered: 34% (Yahoo) | GP: 4 (@MTL, Vs.VAN, Vs.STL, @SJS, -13 SOS) | Line: 2 (w/ Kadri & Dube, PP2)
- Mangiapane is definitely having a down year, on-pace for just 35 points; but not all hope is lost. The 26-year old is playing in the top 6 alongside one of last year’s hottest fantasy assets – Nazem Kadri. Kadri himself is off to a slow start, but appears to be heating up with 5 points in his last 3 games. Turning back to Mangiapane, it should be noted that his 12 iSH% is well below his 3-year average of 18.1%, and his 8 tEVSH% is at or below league average. In a week where Calgary plays 4 games, all on “light days”, I’d say Mangiapane is worth a shot.
🎯 Rasmus Sandin (D), TOR | Rostered: 27% (Yahoo) | GP: 3 (Vs.ANA, @NYR, @WSH, -12 SOS) | Line: 2 (w/ Liljegren, PP1)
- On-pace for just 31 points, but the Leafs blue liner does have 5 points (2 goals) in his last 6 games played. 3 of those 5 points have come on the power play, as Sandin has filled in nicely on Toronto’s top power play unit. Better yet, the 22-year old is a great source for hits (2.52 hits/GM) and blocked shots (1.17 BLKs/GM). Toronto’s schedule this week is favourable at -12, though it doesn’t offer a ton of value in terms of additional games or light days. NOTE: 7.4 iSH% normal, 7.2 tEVSH% could improve, but 8 of 9 assists to date are secondary.
🎯 Sean Durzi (D), LAK | Rostered: 54% (Yahoo) | GP: 3 (@BUF, @BOS, Vs.SJS, -5 SOS) | Line: 2 (w/ Roy, PP2)
- The Kings defenceman is building off a strong rookie campaign, and is currently on-pace for 55 points. Durzi has already exceeded last year’s goal total, having posted 4 goals in 27 games to date this season. Before Thursday’s match with Toronto, the 24-year old was on a 6-game point streak in which he posted 9 points and 1 goal. NOTE: 11.1 iSH% is significantly higher than the 2.5% he shot last year during his rookie season. 54.5 IPP is probably higher than we’d like to see, and 11 of 14 assists to date are secondary. 8.4 tEVSH% right around league average.
🎯 Jared Spurgeon (D), MIN | Rostered: 54% (Yahoo) | GP: 4 (Vs.EDM, Vs.DET, Vs.CHI, Vs.OTT, -12 SOS) | Line: 1 (w/ Middleton, PP1)
- Calen Addison was a healthy scratch on Friday night with the return of Jonas Brodin. That opened the door for the Wild captain to play a season-high 4:01 PPTOI (50.1% PP Share), posting a power play assist – Spurgeon’s 4th point in his last 4 games. The 33-year old is also a reliable source of blocked shots (2.04/GM), hits (0.88/GM), and has provided 3.0 SOG/GM over the last 4 contests. As an added bonus, the Wild have one of the more desirable schedules next week, playing all 4 of the games on “light days”.
🎯 John Gibson (G), ANA | Rostered: 40% (Yahoo) | GP: 4 (@OTT, @TOR, @MTL, @EDM, -4 SOS) | Role: Starter (74% Net Share)
- Gibson left Friday’s contest after two periods, ultimately getting hung with the loss to the Sharks after allowing 4 goals on 19 shots. I’d probably feel sick after that performance as well… Prior to last night though, the Ducks starter had been solid in his previous 6 outings, posting a 2-2-2 record with a 3.07 GAA, .916 SV%, and 2.64 GSAA.Far from a perfect option, but Gibson will get plenty of starts, generally stop a lot of pucks, and just happens to play 4 games next week with a -4 strength of schedule rating.
🎯 Dan Vladar (G), CGY | Rostered: 38% (Yahoo) | GP: 4 (@MTL, Vs.VAN, Vs.STL, @SJS, -13 SOS) | Role: Backup, Sort Of… (38% Net Share)
- Dan Vladar started 6 of Calgary’s last 9 games as Jacob Markstrom struggled to find his footing (Friday against Columbus being the exception). In the month of November, Vladar posted a 2.59 GAA, .918 SV%, and 1.4 GSAx. Take advantage of Vladar’s play and deployment while you can, but don’t expect him to be a long-term solution. Based on the schedule this week, we should see the Flames “backup” get a couple games.
🎯 Semyon Varlamov (G), NYI | Rostered: 43% (Yahoo) | GP: 3 (@BOS, @ARI, @VGK, +19 SOS) | Role: Backup (33% Net Share)
- Despite a rough outing against New Jersey on Friday, Semyon Varlamov has been very steady for the New York Islanders. During the month of November, the former Capital posted a 3-2-0 record with a 2.73 GAA, .921 SV% and 2.58 GSAA. Varlamov is used sparingly for the Islanders though, playing just 10 games to date and generally starting 1 in every 3 contests.
🎯 Charlie Lindgren (G), WSH | Rostered: 19% (Yahoo) | GP: 3 (@CHI, Vs.DAL, Vs.TOR, +5 SOS) | Role: Backup (36% Net Share)
- Another short-term option for those of you following the zero g strategy *cough..Bruce…cough* Lindgren is playing very well for the Capitals in Darcy Kuemper’s absence. In 3 starts since December 3rd, Lindgren has posted a 3-0-0 record with a 1.34 GAA, .953 SV%, and 2.35 GSAx. Kuemper’s injury does not appear to be a long-term issue, but take advantage of Lindgren’s play while you can.
Edge Work | Weekly Rankings (Powered By Left Wing Lock)
New to Edge Work this season, the Hacks will provide weekly player rankings, powered by our partner, Left Wing Lock! The full weekly rankings list can be accessed here; and each episode we’ll work our way through the risers and fallers in fantasy.
📈Tage Thompson (C), BUF | +11 | #35
- Thompson jumps 11 spots this week after posting 9 points in 4 games — including a 5-goal effort against the Blue Jackets in Wednesday’s game. Is Thompson’s 120-point pace sustainable? That seems unlikely given his high IPP (85%) and high tEVSH% (11.8%).
📈Mitch Marner (RW), TOR | +13 | #44
- Marner has now scored in 22 straight games. The Leafs have won three straight and are 8-0-2 in their last 10 games. Marner is on pace for 99 points (LWL projection: 103), but with his drop in shot production (2.6 vs. 3.1 last season) and that wildly high IPP of 90%, he may have a little trouble getting there.
📈Nico Hischier (C), NJD | +22 | #55
- Hischier has been widely praised as a strong, two-way center early in his career, but fantasy managers have been left wanting. This season, he has quietly upped his shot production to 3.2 shots/game (up from 2.2 last season) and is quietly producing at 88-point pace. When you factor in his face-off wins and PPTOI, Hischier is suddenly looking strong in category leagues. While he jumps 22 spots in this week’s rankings, managers need to keep an eye on his secondary assist rate which is 2.5X greater than his career average.
📉Moritz Seider (D), DET | -17 | #135
- Seider drops 17 spots in this week’s update after seemingly losing his hold on that top power play spot in Detroit. Factor in fewer offensive zone starts this season (41.5% vs. 45.1%) and you have a defenseman who is now generating just 1.6 shots/game (compared to 2.3 last season). Seider is on pace for just 36 points (down from 50 last year) and has a single point in his last six outings. If it weren’t for his great peripherals (185 hits pace; 191 blocks pace), he’d be droppable in one-year leagues.
📉Mark Stone (RW), VGK | -20 | #160
- Putting your fantasy trophy hopes into the hands of a 30-year-old forward with a history of back trouble is probably not a wise move. And Mark Stone is making managers regret drafting him late in the 4th round (ADP: 46.7) this Summer. Despite climbing back to pre-injury shot levels of 2.5 shots/game, Stone is on pace for just 59 points. Are there signs that this drop in production is just bad luck? Stone’s IPP is just 64% which indicates that he’s been awarded points at a lower-than-expected rate when the Golden Knights score at even-strength. But don’t expect much; this is mostly a “what you see is what you get” situation.
📉Adrian Kempe (LW/RW), LAK | -16 | #190
- Kempe has just one point in his last four games and he recently dropped from 1st line RW duties to 3rd line C duties. He’s on pace for just 46 points and this demotion is not going to help matters. After generating 3.2 shots/game last season, Kempe is at just 2.6 shots/game in 2022-2023. Is there any hope for a turnaround? Aside from a bump back to the top line, there are two indicators that show Kempe has been unlucky: (1) his IPP sits at just 50% (career: 71%) and (2) his PPIPP sits at just 33% (career: 60%). He’s rostered in just under 60% of Yahoo leagues.
New To The List (NTL)
📈Tyler Seguin (C/RW), DAL | NTL | #158
- Sequin debuts on the rankings list this week at spot #158 while quietly amassing 21 points in 28 games. He was largely ignored in drafts this Summer (51% ownership on opening night) with an ADP of 163.2. His 62-point pace is riding on the back of a mixed bag of luck metrics: his SH% and PPSH% are low, while his secondary assist rate and tEVSH% are high. He might just be the right replacement for Kempe owners who could use the boost in face-off wins.
Contest Announcement | Hacks Holiday!
Help the Hacks celebrate 100 episodes of fantasy fun! We truly appreciate all the support we’ve received from listeners, partners, and guests, making this first 100 episodes a genuinely enjoyable experience. All of us on the podcast enjoy creating fantasy hockey content, and will do so for as long as people will listen. To show our appreciation, we are sending one listener and a guest on a “Hacks Holiday” to Las Vegas next February! Thank you to our partners – Lucky Bastard Distillers & Left Wing Lock – for their support in making this contest possible. Winner will receive:
- 2 tickets to a Vegas Golden Knights home game against the Tampa Bay Lightning – Saturday, February 18, 2023
- 2 round-trip tickets to Las Vegas
- 3-night accommodations at a hotel near T-Mobile Arena
- 1 year FREE subscription to the Left Wing Lock iPhone app!
Go to the contest page – FantasyHockeyHacks.com/HacksHoliday – and follow the directions to enter the contest.
“HACK THE CODE” Number For Episode 92: 3
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