NHL Fantasy Preview – Week 11
Episode 93 of the Fantasy Hockey Hacks Podcast! Week 10 of the NHL was filled with more Tage Thompson highlights, a rare outburst from Connor McDavid, more goals from Ovechkin, a few significant injuries, and much more! As we do each week, we’ll check in on John’s list, “hack” our way through the NHL’s Headlines, go through the week’s schedule, make recommendations for waiver wire adds, and discuss our weekly Top 200 Rankings – Powered By Left Wing Lock.
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- Enter to win a Hacks Holiday in Vegas!
- 800 career NHL goals for Alex Ovechkin
- Connor McDavid spouts off after GWG is reversed in OT
- Leon Draisaitl is officially the mayor of Nashville
- Charlie Lindgren is red hot for the Washington Capitals
- Blake Wheeler out 4 weeks
- Jack Eichel placed on IR
- Nicolas Backstrom back for the Capitals?
- The Kraken claim Tolvenan
- 1200 career games for Joe Pavelski
- UPDATED RANKINGS!
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If you have been listening to our podcast for a while, you’ve undoubtedly heard about “John’s List”; which is basically John’s $h!t list of players past and present. If you have any suggestions for players/subjects we should add to the list, let us know!
Ryan Lomberg – Brutal hit on Justin Schultz…
@ItsFoShoJohnnyE, I give you this week’s entry for John’s List.👇
— Fantasy Hockey Hacks (@FHHacks) December 12, 2022
Gary Bettman – For suggesting that the digital billboards have “enhanced” the viewing experience for fans.💩
— Fantasy Hockey Hacks (@FHHacks) December 13, 2022
Fantasy Lock Of The Week (December 5 – 11, 2022) | Presented by Left Wing Lock
🔥Leon Draisaitl, C/LW, 100% Rostered (Yahoo)
Leon Draisaitl continues to dominate the Nashville Predators, following a 5-point performance on Tuesday night! Draisaitl has 30 points and 20 goals in his last 10 games played against Nashville.🤯 8 Points (2 Goals), 1 GWG, 13 SOG, 5 PPP, 86.1% PP Share, 24:36 ATOI in 4 games played during week 10.
NHL Video Highlight – Leon Draisaitl scores against the Nashville Predators to make it 4-2. pic.twitter.com/q5qLMzOMei
— Edmonton Oilers Bot (@OilersBot) December 14, 2022
Headlines W/ The Hacks | December 11 – 18, 2022
The NHL Announced The 3 stars of the Week on Monday
- 1st star is Capitals goalie Charlie Lindgren. He led the NHL in wins going 4-0-0 with 1.50 GAA and a .949 SV
- 2nd star is Sabre Tage Thompson. He had 5 goals and 7 points over 3 games.
- 3rd star is the Leaf’s William Nylander. He registered 7 points in 3 games (3 goals and 4 assists)
Injuries News: The Bad
- Jack Eichel has been placed on IR by the Golden Knights
- Jeff Petry has been placed on LTIR by the Penguins retroactive to Dec 3rd
- Tim Stutzle has been placed on IR by the Ottawa Senators
- Blake Wheeler will miss about a month after needing groin surgery
Injury News: The Good
- Petr Mrazak has been activated from IR by the Black Hawks at started Tuesday’s game vs the Capitals
- James Reimer was activated from IR on Monday and should start Tuesday vs Arizona
- Ryan Hartman has been activated from IR by the Wild
- Josh Norris is practicing with the Senators in a full contact jersey
- Jakob Vrana is practicing with the Red Wings, after being reinstated by the NHL/NHLPA
- Nicolas Backstrom joined the Capitals for practice in a regular Jersey.
Injury News: Keep an eye on…
- John Gibson left Tuesday nights game vs the Leafs with an undisclosed injury
- Alesander Barkov left Saturday nights game vs the Devils with an lower body injury
- TJ Oshie left tonight’s game vs the Leafs with an upper body injury
- Mikhail Sergachev has missed the last games with an upper body injury
- Eli Tolvanen was placed on waivers by the Nashville Predators, he was claimed by the Seattle Kraken.
- Alex Ovechkin scored his 800th goal of the season on Tuesday vs the Black Hawks.
- Joe Pavelski played his 1200th career game on Saturday
- Kirill Kaprizov reached the 200 point mark on Sunday afternoon, he did it in 167 games. 6 games faster than Connor McDavid. And 4th fastest among active players.
Edge Work | NHL Schedule, Week 11
The segment where we put in the work to give you the EDGE in your fantasy hockey leagues!
Need To Know:
Week 11 features a compressed schedule leading up to the Christmas break; with no games being played between December 24th and 26th. Monday to Thursday there are essentially 8 games played per night, and Friday is the busiest night of the week with 13 games to be played. There are a total of 44 games on the schedule; and just 1 “light day” (50% or fewer NHL teams in action) with Wednesday (7) being the “slow” day.
In terms of optimizing the schedule, there are 8 teams (BUF, CHI, MIN, NYR, PIT, SJS, SEA, TOR) that play 2 games; everybody else plays 3 times, so no real big schedule advantages this week. The Vegas Golden Knights are the only team next week that plays ALL 3 of their games at home, 2 of which are on light days. Vegas has the fourth strongest schedule at a rating of -13.
According to Left Wing Lock’s Strength Of Schedule metric, the Minnesota Wild have the most favourable schedule at -30; taking on Anaheim and San Jose. The Florida Panthers have the toughest schedule with a +21 strength of schedule rating and matchups with Boston, New Jersey, and the New York Islanders.
- Monday – 8 Games
- Tuesday – 8 Games
- Wednesday – 7 Games
- Thursday – 8 Games
- Friday – 13 Games
- Saturday – 0 Games
- Sunday – 0 Games
Edge Work | Waiver Wire Targets, NHL Week 11
Waiver wire targets will be focused on players with ownership ~50% or less. SOS = Strength of Schedule, according to Left Wing Lock. Lower number = Easier Schedule, Higher Number = Harder Schedule.
Top Waiver Wire Targets
🎯 Brandon Hagel (LW/RW), TB | Rostered: 31% (Yahoo) | GP: 3 (@TOR, @DET, @BUF, -1 SOS) | Line: 1 (w/ Point & Kucherov, PP1)
- It’s mind-boggling to me that Brandon Hagel is just 31% rostered right now. Playing on the Bolts top line with Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov, as well as the team’s top power play unit; Hagel has flown under the radar this season with 26 points (12 goals) in 30 games! 9 points and 5 goals in his last 5 games. The shot volume leaves something to be desired at 1.9 SOG/GM, but this is a top-line player on an elite team. GO. GRAB. HIM. NOW. NOTE: 20.7 iSH%, 9.7 tEVSH% slightly above league average.
🎯 Jack Quinn (LW/RW), BUF | Rostered: 16% (Yahoo) | GP: 2 (@VGK, Vs.TB, +4 SOS) | Line: 2 (w/ Cozens & Peterka, PP2)
- The Buffalo Sabres have been a great source for fantasy value this season; and that extends beyond players names Thompson and Skinner. In 14 games dating back to November 19th, Jack Quinn has posted 12 points and 5 goals in 14 games played! With a role in the top 6 and second power play unit, Quinn should continue to return dividends for fantasy managers. NOTE: 20.8 iSH%, 13.6 tEVSH% points to future regression.
🎯 Jack Roslovic (C), CBJ | Rostered: 6% (Yahoo) | GP: 3 (Vs.DAL, @PHI, @CHI, +3 SOS) | Line: 2 (w/ Laine & Chinakhov, PP1)
- The former Jet is pointless in his last 3 contests, but prior to that he had posted 8 points and 2 goals in 6 games. Playing on the Blue Jackets top power play unit, and with Laine on the team’s second line, Roslovic is worth a short-term look next week with juicy matchups against Philadelphia and Chicago. One concern for me is Roslovic’s lowly shot volume at just 1.6 shots on goal per game. NOTE: 7.1 iSH% leaves potential for more offence, 9.1 tEVSH% at league average.
🎯 James Van Riemsdyk (LW/RW), PHI | Rostered: 7% (Yahoo) | GP: 3 (Vs.CBJ, @TOR, @CAR, +12 SOS) | Line: 1 (w/ Frost & Tippett, PP1)
- Don’t look now, but James Van Riemsdyk has 11 points (5 goals) in 12 games played this season! JVR is playing top line left wing with a couple of talented youngsters in Morgan Frost and Owen Tippett; and has a secure role on the teams top power play unit. On Saturday, the 33-year old played a season-high 21:37 TOI and 5 SOG; it’s hard to believe he is less than 10% rostered! NOTE: 20.8 iSH%, 11.9 tEVSH%,
🎯 Anthony Mantha (LW/RW), WSH | Rostered: 10% (Yahoo) | GP: 3 (Vs.DET, @OTT, Vs.WPG, +2 SOS) | Line: 2 (w/ Kuznetsov & Milano, PP2)
- The former Red Wing is rolling right now with 9 points and 3 goals in his last 10 games played. With T.J. Oshie leaving Saturday’s contest against the Maple Leafs (Upper-Body), that really opens the door for Mantha to continue his hot streak. Mantha’s line with Kuznetsov and Milano posted a 66 CF% and outscored the Leafs 3-1 at even-strength. Shot volume is a concern at 1.8 SOG/GM. NOTE: 13.6 iSH% is slightly above 3-year and career averages, 7.7 tEVSH% below league average.
🎯 Yanni Gourde (C), SEA | Rostered: 7% (Yahoo) | GP: 2 (Vs.STL, @VAN, +6 SOS) | Line: 3 (w/ Bjorkstrand & Donato)
- Yanni Gourde started the season slowly with ZERO points in the first 6 games of the season. Since then, Gourde has posted 18 points and 4 goals in 22 games since October 25th. In addition to the offence, Gourde is a healthy source of hits at 1.68 Hits/GM and penalty minutes at 1.14 PIMs/GM (23 PIMs last 10 GP). The former Bolts shot volume is not ideal at 1.8 SOG/GM, but his shot rate also has room for improvement at just 8.2%, down from his 3-year (14.3%) and career (15%) averages. NOTE: 8.2 iSH%, 100 IPP since October 25th is NOT sustainable;
🎯 Mikael Backlund (C), CGY | Rostered: 28% (Yahoo) | GP: 3 (@SJS, @LAK, @ANA, -27 SOS) | Line: 3 (w/ Coleman & Ruzicka)
- Backlund is on a roll offensively, posting 8 points (1 goal) in his last 8 games played. Over that span, the Flames veteran is shooting at a career-high rate (2.9 SOG/GM), but converting at just 4.3%. With 267 FOW to date, Backlund is among the top 25 players in face-off wins, something to consider if your league counts that category. NOTE: 7.1 iSH%, 7.9 tEVSH%.
🎯 Kasperi Kapanen (RW), PIT | Rostered: 7% (Yahoo) | GP: 2 (Vs.NYR, Vs.CAR, +12 SOS) | Line: 3 (w/ Carter & McGinn, PP2)
- In his last 7 games, Kapanen has produced 7 points and 4 goals playing on the Pens third line with Jeff Carter and Brock McGinn. Kapanen has shown chemistry with Evgeni Malkin in the past, and that deployment would be a best-case scenario for the 26-year old. NOTE: 16.1 iSH% is well-above his 3-year and career averages of 11.8% and 11.3% respectively; 7.4 tEVSH%, 100 IPP – NOT sustainable.
ALSO: Ryan Hartman (34%), Josh Norris (55%).
🎯 Conor Timmins (D), TOR | Rostered: 2% (Yahoo) | GP: 2 (Vs.TB, Vs.PHI, -12 SOS) | Line: 3 (w/ Brodie, PP2)
- Conor Timmins is rolling for the Toronto Maple Leafs right now with 6 points in his last 5 games played. Timmins is seeing time on the second power play unit, which is a bonus; but is seeing limited action on the team’s third pairing. Timmin’s shot volume is virtually non-existent, and he isn’t a huge category contributor; but the points are there for the moment. NOTE: 9.7 tEVSH%
🎯 John Klingberg (D), ANA | Rostered: 44% (Yahoo) | GP: 3 (@LAK, Vs.MIN, Vs.CGY, +4 SOS) | Line: 2 (w/ Benoit, PP2)
- Klingberg has been relegated to the second power play unit, but with 3 goals in his last two games played, the former Star is intriguing. The real appeal of picking up a player like Klingberg is the promise of better deployment, and linemates, on a new team prior to the trade deadline. The 30-year-old’s shot volume has been on the decline since 2017, and sits at a paltry 1.4 SOG/GM. NOTE: 11.1 iSH% is well-above 3-year average (6.0%); 6.8 tEVSH%.
🎯 Dmitry Orlov (D), WSH | Rostered: 36% (Yahoo) | GP: 3 (Vs.DET, @OTT, Vs.WPG, +2 SOS) | Line: 2 (w/ Jensen, PP2)
- Dmitry Orlov has been productive since coming back from injury, with 3 points in his first 4 games back. Additionally, Orlov has averaged 3.75 SOG/GM and 2.5 BLKs/GM since making his return. The Russian Dman receives NO power play time, but he has not played less than 21:29 TOI over the last 4 games. NOTE: 2.4 iSH% is well-below 3-year and career averages of 8.4% and 6.4%, respectively; 8.4 tEVSH%.
🎯 Filip Gustavsson (G), MIN | Rostered: 25% (Yahoo) | GP: 2 (@ANA, @SJS, -30 SOS) | Role: Backup (38% Net Share)
- Since November 9th, Gustavsson has received 8 starts to Fleury’s 10, so it will be interesting to see if that trend continues over the coming weeks. Over that same period of time, the former Senator has posted a 6-1-1 record with a 1.84 GAA, .936 SV%, and 6.6 GSAx! If you’re looking for depth at the goaltender position, Gustavsson appears to be the perfect option; though Minnesota plays just twice this week.
🎯 Brian Elliott (G), TB | Rostered: 8% (Yahoo) | GP: 3 (@TOR, @DET, @BUF, -1 SOS) | Role: Backup (28% Net Share)
- Brian Elliott does not get many starts for the Tampa Bay Lightning, but he is almost automatic when he does, sporting a 7-1-0 record in 8 starts this season. The 37-year old is perfect so far in December with a 2-0-0 record with a 1.51 GAA, .951 SV%, and 1.61 GSAx.
🎯 Jake Allen (G), MTL | Rostered: 36% (Yahoo) | GP: 3 (@ARI, @COL, @DAL, -10 SOS) | Role: Starter (66% Net Share)
- Excluding Saturday’s 5-1 defeat to the Tampa Bay Lightning, Jake Allen sported a 2-2-0 record with a 2.23 GAA, .932 SV%, and 3.17 GSAx in 4 games since December 6th. Montreal has no back-to-back games next week, and a reasonably favourable schedule. Allen could be a productive 3rd goalie, particularly in deeper leagues where starts are important.
Edge Work | Weekly Rankings (Powered By Left Wing Lock)
New to Edge Work this season, the Hacks will provide weekly player rankings, powered by our partner, Left Wing Lock! The full weekly rankings list can be accessed here; and each episode we’ll work our way through the risers and fallers in fantasy.
📈Igor Shesterkin (G), NYR | +11 | #12
- Entering Sunday, Shesterkin had led the Rangers to five straight victories, improving his record to 15 wins in 23 starts. His save percentage now sits at 0.917 (his PKSV% is right near the league average at 0.867). While this performance (SV% & GAA) is a dip from last season, it was not unexpected given his lucky PKSV% from last season of 0.929. Shesterkin continues to be one of the top goalies in fantasy hockey (and will be for years to come).
📈Alex DeBrincat (LW), OTT | +24 | #36
- DeBrincat terrorized goalies this week with 8 points in 3 games to bring his season total to 30 points in 30 games. Managers who were patient with his lackluster start will continue to reap the rewards as his SH% and tEVSH% are still low at 8.4% and 6.4% respectively.
📈Vincent Trocheck (C), NYR | +14 | #45
- Trocheck posted 5 points in 3 games for the Rangers this week and continues to generate shots at a strong level (3.1 shots/game). He has 23 points in 32 games and still has room to improve: his SH% sits at a slightly unlucky level of 10% and the Rangers have scored on just 6.4% of the shots they’ve taken with Trocheck on the ice.
📉Dylan Larkin (C), DET | -9 | #62
- Larkin, who has been banged up a few times this season already, has just one point in the most recent six games. He’s now cooled off to a 76-point pace and even that might still be a little high given Detroit’s 94% shooting percentage with Larkin on the ice. His four minutes of power play time (per game) make him a must-hold for now, but we all know what happens to power play opportunities at the turn of the year.
📉Aaron Ekblad (D), FLA | -18 | #81
- Ekblad was drafted, on average, late in the third round this Summer. To date, he has been a disappointment to fantasy managers who targeted him for their blue line. He’s on pace for 55 points but that’s quite a bit below where LWL had him in their pre-season projections (68 points). Ekblad has been a bit unlucky. His IPP sits at just 29% (that number is typically closer to 40% for Ekblad) — and that drop-off is responsible for almost all of the missing points. The Florida defenseman had two points in Saturday’s game but went scoreless in the previous four outings.
📉Nick Suzuki (C), MTL | -22 | #83
- Suzuki has just 2 points in his last 5 games and that decline in scoring was not entirely unexpected. Despite his point-per-game pace (31 points), Suzuki’s shooting percentage sits at 24% and the tEVSH% sits at 14.9%. More pain is on the way and managers might want to get out in front of the coming freeze.
New To The List (NTL)
📈Brandon Hagel (LW/RW), TB | NTL | #194
- Brandon Hagel joins the list this week at spot #194. He posted 9 points in his most recent five games including back-to-back two-goal, one-assist outings against league cellar-dwellers Columbus and Montreal. Hagel has a respectable 26 points in 30 games, but his production has been driven upward by luck. His SH% is 20.7% (astute listeners will note that Hagel’s shooting percentage last season was 20% in 77 games) and the tEVSH% value of 10.4% has pushed Hagel’s secondary assist rate sky high (it’s nearly 3 times his career average). Don’t expect Hagel to maintain this pace, but it’s nice to see him jump onto the list after going scoreless in the first five games of the season.
Contest Announcement | Hacks Holiday!
Help the Hacks celebrate 100 episodes of fantasy fun! We truly appreciate all the support we’ve received from listeners, partners, and guests, making this first 100 episodes a genuinely enjoyable experience. All of us on the podcast enjoy creating fantasy hockey content, and will do so for as long as people will listen. To show our appreciation, we are sending one listener and a guest on a “Hacks Holiday” to Las Vegas next February! Thank you to our partners – Lucky Bastard Distillers & Left Wing Lock – for their support in making this contest possible. Winner will receive:
- 2 tickets to a Vegas Golden Knights home game against the Tampa Bay Lightning – Saturday, February 18, 2023
- 2 round-trip tickets to Las Vegas
- 3-night accommodations at a hotel near T-Mobile Arena
- 1 year FREE subscription to the Left Wing Lock iPhone app!
Go to the contest page – FantasyHockeyHacks.com/HacksHoliday – and follow the directions to enter the contest.
“HACK THE CODE” Number For Episode 93: 8
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