NHL Fantasy Preview – Week 16

NHL Fantasy Preview – Week 16

Episode 98 of the Fantasy Hockey Hacks Podcast! Week 15 of the NHL was filled with plenty of action, highlighted by Steven Stamkos reaching the 500-goal plateau in style, more McDavid Magic, a major injury announcement for the Habs, and much more! As we do each week, we’ll check in on John’s list, “hack” our way through the NHL’s Headlines, go through the week’s schedule, make recommendations for waiver wire adds, and discuss our weekly Rankings Risers & Fallers (Top 200 Rankings) – Powered By Left Wing Lock. Thank you again to Mike McLaughlin for joining us, fantastic insight as always!

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Highlights:

• 500 goals for Steven Stamkos
• McDavid’s miraculous season continues – 40 goals
• Cole Caufield out for the remainder of the season
• Max Pacioretty re-injures achilles
• Rantanen rolling for the Avs
• Tristan Jarry returns for the Penguins
• UPDATED RANKINGS!

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John’s List

If you have been listening to our podcast for a while, you’ve undoubtedly heard about “John’s List”; which is basically John’s $h!t list of players past and present. If you have any suggestions for players/subjects we should add to the list, let us know!

Nikita Kucherov/Temper Bay Tantrums – For being a bunch of greasy crybabies on Thursday night against the Edmonton Oilers

—

Fantasy Lock Of The Week (January 16 – 22, 2023) | Presented by Left Wing Lock

🔥Steven Stamkos, C/LW, 100% Rostered (Yahoo)

Steven Stamkos is just the eighth player in league history to score his 500th career goal and record a hat trick in the same game. The others were Jean Beliveau, Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux, Mark Messier, Brett Hull, Jaromir Jagr, and Mats Sundin.

Stamkos also joins Alex Ovechkin (810) and Sidney Crosby (538) as the only active players in the 500-goal club.

On-pace for 42 goals and 98 points. 6 Points (5 Goals), 1 GWG, 15 SOG, +3, 71.3% PP Share, 19:48 ATOI in 4 games played during week 15.

Seen Stamkos??? pic.twitter.com/kE6nlmB5oN

— Tampa Bay Lightning (@TBLightning) January 19, 2023

Headlines W/ The Hacks | January 16 – 22, 2023

Headlines This Week

• Matt Boldy has signed a 7 year contract extension with the Minnesota Wild worth 7 million dollars per season. The 21 year old forward has 12 goals and 29 points in 41 games this season. He scored 39 points in 47 games last season with the Wild. 
• Evander Kane returned to the Oilers lineup on Tuesday after being out of the lineup since Nov 8th when his wrist was cut by a skate in a game vs the Tampa Bay Lightning.
•  Josh Norris has been activated from IR by the Ottawa Senators. Norris has been out of the lineup since October 22nd when he suffered a shoulder injury. 
• Steven Stamkos scored career goal # 500 Wednesday night vs the Vancouver Canucks
• Mikko Rantanen is the fastest player in Colorado Avalanche history to score 30 goals in a season. He needed just 42 games to do it. The record was previously held by Joe Sakic at 44 games. 

• Max Pacioretty has helped off the ice after suffering a lower body injury Thursday night in a game vs the Wild. MRI confirmed that Max torn his Achilles tendon again. He is out for the rest of the season
• Sergei Bobrovsky suffered a lower body injury thursday night vs the Montreal Canadiaens
• Tristan Jarry was activated from IR on Friday and will start vs the Ottawa Senators. The Penguins won 4-1
• Jeff Petry was also activated from IR. His toi was 25:25 with a pp assist on 4 shots and 6 hits.
• Kris Letang has been shifted to LTIR retroactive to Dec 28th. He can come off of IR whenever he is ready.
• Montreal Canadiens forward Cole Caufield suffered a season ending shoulder injury vs the Panthers. In 46 games had 36 points, 26 goals (11th in the NHL) and 10 assists.
• On Saturday Connor McDavid became the fastest player to score 40 goals in a season (48 games) since Pavel Bure in 1999-2000 season

Edge Work | NHL Schedule, Week 16

The segment where we put in the work to give you the EDGE in your fantasy hockey leagues! 

Need To Know: 

Week 16 is going to be steady with Tuesday (11), Thursday (9), Friday (8) and Saturday (11) being the busiest nights this week. There are a total of 50 games on the schedule; and just 3 “light days” (50% or fewer NHL teams in action) with Monday (4), Wednesday (5) and Friday (2) being the “slow” days. 

In terms of optimizing the schedule, the Toronto Maple Leafs are the ONLY team to play 4 games at home; ALL of which take place on “light days”. There are 5 other teams (NYI, FLA, CBJ, BOS, BUF) that play 4 games this week, all other teams play 3 games with the exception of Edmonton and Nashville – who play just a pair of games. 

According to Left Wing Lock’s Strength Of Schedule metric, the Anaheim Ducks, surprisingly, have the most favourable schedule at -25; with matchups against Arizona (2x) and Colorado. The New York Rangers (FLA, TOR, VGK) have the toughest schedules with a +22 strength of schedule rating. 

• Monday – 4 Games
• Tuesday – 11 Games
• Wednesday – 5 Games
• Thursday – 9 Games
• Friday – 8 Games
• Saturday – 11 Games
• Sunday – 2 Games

Edge Work | Waiver Wire Targets, NHL Week 16

Waiver wire targets will be focused on players with ownership ~50% or less. SOS = Strength of Schedule, according to Left Wing Lock. Lower number = Easier Schedule, Higher Number = Harder Schedule.  

Top Waiver Wire Targets

🎯 Tyler Seguin (C/RW), DAL | Rostered: 57% (Yahoo) | GP: 3 (Vs.BUF, Vs.CAR, Vs.NJD, -1 SOS) | Line: (w/ Robertson & Pavelski, PP1) 

• Tyler Seguin has been filling in for the injured Roope Hintz on the team’s top line, alongside Jason Robertson and Joe Pavelski. On Thursday Seguin posted a great stat line of 2 goals (1 GWG), 1 assist, 2 PIMS, 2 Hits, 5 SOG, and 7 FOW! 8 points, 5 goals, 22 SOG (3.66 SOG/GM), 10 hits, 52 FOW%, and 62% PP Share in his last 6 games played. Seguin’s 59-point pace is the best offensive production we’ve seen from him since 2019-2020. Dallas has a nice schedule next week with 3 games on “light days”, though against some tougher competition. NOTE: On Seguin’s current heater, he has a 22.7 iSH% and 88.9 IPP. Seguin will undoubtedly lose his prime deployment once Hintz returns, but enjoy the ride while you can. 

🎯 Kirby Dach (C/RW), MTL | Rostered: 18% (Yahoo) | GP: 3 (Vs.BOS, Vs.DET, @OTT, +11 SOS) | Line: (w/ Anderson & Hoffman, PP1) 

• Things have gone well for Kirby Dach in his first season with the Habs, posting 29 points (8 goals) through 46 games – a career-best 52 point pace over 82 games. 7 points and 3 goals in his last 10 games played. With the exception of the game against Boston, Dach and the Habs have a favourable schedule for next week. NOTE: 1.8 SOG/GM, 62% PP Share both career-highs. 

🎯 Kevin Hayes (C/LW), PHI | Rostered: 33% (Yahoo) | GP: 3 (Vs.LAK, @MIN, @WPG, -6 SOS) | Line: 3 (w/ Laughton & Allison, PP2) 

• After posting his first career hat trick against the Anaheim Ducks on Tuesday, Hayes is on-pace for 73 points with 40 points and 13 goals in 45 games. Hayes is shooting a career-high 3.0 SOG/GM, 61% PP Share, and 18:05 TOI. 10 points, 4 goals in his last 9 games played. NOTE: 3.8 SOG/GM last 10 GP, 9 shots against Chicago on Thursday. 8.3 tEVSH%, 9.7 iSH% below career average of 11.8%. 

🎯 Victor Olofsson (RW), BUF | Rostered: 9% (Yahoo) | GP: 4 (@DAL, @STL, @WPG, @MIN, -8 SOS) | Line: 3 (w/ Mittelstadt & Jost, PP2) 

• Victor Olofsson is on quite the run lately with 9 points (8 goals) in his last 9 games played. Olofsson is playing a career-low 14:24 TOI and his PPTOI has been on the decline over the past three seasons; BUT shot volume has been consistent at 2.3 SOG/GM and he’s still on-pace for 50 points this season. NOTE: 20.4 iSH% obviously not sustainable; 7.8 tEVSH% suggests he may benefit from some puck luck.

🎯 Jonathan Toews (C), CHI | Rostered: 10% (Yahoo) | GP: 3 (@VAN, @CGY, @EDM, -5 SOS) | Line: (w/ Kurashev & Raddysh, PP1) 

• The question around the Blackhawks captain is, “How much fuel is left in the tank”? Well if his recent hot streak is any indication, the tank has plenty of fuel for the remainder of the season – 7 points, 2 goals, 61% FOW, 75% PP Share, 18:26 TOI in his last 7 GP. With 27 points (13 goals) in 43 games, Toews is on-pace for 51 points this year. Could be a valuable depth add while he is producing. NOTE: 17.8 iSH% well-above 3-year (13.1%) and career (13.8%) averages; nearly 64% FOW a career-high; 7.7 tEVSH% may mean some puck luck is on the way. 

🎯 Alex Killorn (LW/RW), TB | Rostered: 24% (Yahoo) | GP: 3 (Vs.MIN, Vs.BOS, Vs.LAK, +9 SOS) | Line: (w/ Stamkos & Cirelli, PP2) 

• With 33 points and 14 goals, the Bolts forward is on-pace for a career-high 60 points this season. Playing alongside captain Steven Stamkos and Anthony Cirelli has been a real boost; and Killorn continues to produce in spite of his very difficult defensive deployment (43 OZ Start%). 9 points and 4 goals in his last 11 games played. NOTE: 18.2 iSH% well above 3-year (14.9%) and career (12.2%) averages; 12 tEVSH% suggests Killorn has benefited from some puck luck at even-strength. 

🎯 Jason Zucker (LW), PIT | Rostered: 31% (Yahoo) | GP: 3 (Vs.FLA, @WSH, Vs.SJS, -6 SOS) | Line: (w/ Malkin & Rakell, PP2) 

Jason Zucker finally appears to have put the pieces back together offensively; though lining up with Malkin and Rakell certainly can’t hurt. The former Wild forward is on-pace for 60 points after posting 7 points (5 goals) in his last 7 games, and better yet, he’s contributing physically with over 3 Hits/GM. NOTE: 14 iSH% above 3-year (11.5%) and career (12.5%) averages; 67.4% OZ Start% a career-high.

ALSO: Teuvo Teravainen (CAR, 51% – 6 points in his last 6 games, top line with Pacioretty out).

🎯 Ryan Graves (D), NJD | Rostered: 25% (Yahoo) | GP: 3 (Vs.VGK, @NSH, @DAL, +9 SOS) | Line: 2 (w/ Severson) 

• Ryan Graves isn’t a flashy offensive Dman, and he isn’t overly physical; but he’s steady with 1.36 Hits/GM and 1.81 BLKS/GM to go along with a 31-point pace. Graves is facing some of his opponents top competitors, while starting 60% of his shifts in the defensive zone; but that has not stopped him from posting 7 points and 2 goals in his last 9 contests. NOTE: 7.6 iSH% a career-high; 10.9 tEVSH%

🎯 Matt Grzelyck (D), BOS | Rostered: 10% (Yahoo) | GP: 4 (@MTL, @TB, @FLA, @CAR, 0 SOS) | Line: 1 (w/ McAvoy) 

• The Bruins Dman is playing on the top pair next to Charlie McAvoy, with exposure to Marchand, Bergeron, and Pastrnak (at times). The TOI (17:11) and shot volume (1.4/GM) leave something to be desired, but with 7 points and 2 goals in his last 9 games played, Grzelyck could make some sense in deeper points leagues. NOTE: 10.8 tEVSH%, 

🎯 Mike Matheson (D), MTL | Rostered: 5% (Yahoo) | GP: 3 (Vs.BOS, Vs.DET, @OTT, +11 SOS) | Line: 1 (w/ Savard) 

• This one is definitely for those of you in deep leagues that count Hits and PIMS. Mike Matheson made his return to the Habs blue line on Tuesday after being sidelined with injury since December 23rd. Matheson’ ice time shows that Montreal is easing him back into action; but through his first two games back he has 1 assist, 5 PIMS, 6 Hits, and has played 7:31 with the man-advantage as part of the team’s top unit. NOTE: 7 points in just 12 games this season puts him at an 82-game pace of 48 points. 3.8 iSH% is well below his 3-year (6.7%) and career (6%) averages. 50 IPP is a bit high for a Dman.  

🎯 Sam Montembeault (G), MTL | Rostered: 13% (Yahoo) | GP: 3 (Vs.BOS, Vs.DET, @OTT, +10 SOS) | Role: Starter (40% Net Share)

• The Habs net minder takes over the crease in Montreal after the team announced on Wednesday that Jake Allen would miss a minimum of 1 week with an upper-body injury. Personally, Montembeault has been fantastic of late, posting a 4-3-0 record with a 2.56 GAA, .934 SV%, and a ridiculous 12.27 GSAx!😳 The Bruins will be a tough matchup, but the other two games next week are appealing. NOTE: Career-high .920 EVSV%, .863 PKSV% suggests performance has not been bolstered by luck. 

🎯 Jack Campbell (G), EDM | Rostered: 71% (Yahoo) | GP: 2 (Vs.CBJ, Vs.CHI, -15 SOS) | Role: Tandem (50% Net Share)

• By the time this episode is released, Campbell will likely be available in 30% or less in Yahoo leagues, but that shouldn’t prevent fantasy managers from checking his availability. The Edmonton Oilers are finally starting to play like a playoff team; and sit just 3 points back of Seattle for 2nd place in the Pacific Division. Campbell is a perfect 5-0-0 in his last 5 starts with a 2.20 GAA, .922 SV% and 1.56 GSAx. With Kane back from injury, and the team looking for another deep playoff run (trade deadline acquisitions), owning either or both Edmonton netminders is a sound strategy. NOTE: .899 EVSV% is Campbell’s 3rd worst of his career. The Oilers PK has been awful this year, and Campbell’s .831 PKSV% reflects that. Fortunately, that number also suggests he has been unlucky on the PK and better days are ahead. 

ALSO: Alex Lyon (FLA, 2% – Injuries to Bobrovsky and Knight);

Edge Work | Weekly Rankings (Powered By Left Wing Lock)

New to Edge Work this season, the Hacks will provide weekly player rankings, powered by our partner, Left Wing Lock! The full weekly rankings list can be accessed here; and each episode we’ll work our way through the risers and fallers in fantasy.

Rankings Risers

📈Frederik Andersen (G), CAR | +44 | #23

• While a ton of fantasy hockey managers were burned last week when the Carolina Hurricanes sent Pyotr Kochetkov to the AHL, there was one very happy NHL goalie: Freddie Andersen. He’s locked in as the #1 guy in Raleigh and has four straight wins since coming back from injury — all the while producing a save percentage of 0.941. Andersen is on one of the best teams in the leagues and he’ll be a formidable fantasy hockey goalie the rest of the way.

📈Jack Hughes (C), NJD | +13 | #39

• After jumping 17 spots in last week’s rankings, Hughes came back for more with a 13-spot jump in this week’s rankings. He continues to generate shots at a career-high pace of 4.5 shots per game (including 5.7 shots per game since the New Year). He has 15 points in his nine games since January 1. He’s on pace for 102 points (in 82 games) and there is no good reason to believe his production will cool off.

📈Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (C), EDM | +19 | #58

• The Hacks believe Nugent-Hopkins was an All-Star snub, but he was not snubbed in this week’s risers in the player rankings. He posted four points in three games this past week to bring his total to 57 points in 48 games. Managers should watch this situation carefully as Nugent-Hopkins’ shooting percentage sits at a lofty 19.6%. Might he be a reasonable player to offer up in trades?

Rankings Fallers

📉Vincent Trocheck (C), NYR | -9 | #62

• The former Carolina Hurricane went scoreless this past week and he’s mired in a cold spell that has him producing just a single point over his last eight games. Despite the cold streak, Trocheck is on pace for 55 points (just edging out his 51-point total from last season). With a low shooting percentage of 9.2% and a low tEVSH% of 6.2%, there is good reason for managers to anticipate a modest upswing in Trocheck’s production. We also like his shot production of 3.1 shots per game.

📉Aaron Ekblad (D), FLA | -23 | #109

• It’s hard to find a fantasy manager with a more glum look on his face than owners of Aaron Ekblad. The Florida blue liner had just one point in four games this week and left Saturday’s game early with an upper-body injury of unknown seriousness. His shot production is down this season to 2.6 shots per game (from 3.0 last season) and his IPP sits at just 25%. His name has popped up in several fantasy roster questions this past week asking if he can be dropped. It’s getting harder to say no.

📉David Perron (RW), DET | -26 | #115

• While Perron landed on the scoresheet this past week with 3 points in four games, those three points are all he has generated over his past 12 games (dating back to December 29). The Detroit winger has 30 points in 45 games and, accounting for this recent cold streak, this is a reasonable expectation of his performance going forward. He’s essentially a 55-point guy on a weak team (Detroit ranks 23rd in goal production in the league).

New To The List (NTL)

📈Rasmus Andersson (D), CGY | NTL | #187

• New to the list is Calgary defender Rasmus Andersson who has quietly generated 33 points in 47 games (on pace for 58 points). He takes about two shots per game and blocks about two shots per game. He’s on the top power play unit (seeing over 3 minutes of PP TOI per game) and the only concern in his production is a higher-than-usual shooting percentage of 7.1%.

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