NHL Fantasy Preview – Week 17

NHL Fantasy Preview – Week 17

Episode 99 of the Fantasy Hockey Hacks Podcast! Week 16 of the NHL was filled with plenty of action, highlighted by a wild, late comeback in regulation for the Florida Panthers, which eventually led to an OT victory over the Boston Bruins! As we do each week, we’ll check in on John’s list, “hack” our way through the NHL’s Headlines, go through the week’s schedule, make recommendations for waiver wire adds, and discuss our weekly Rankings Risers & Fallers (Top 200 Rankings) – Powered By Left Wing Lock. Thank you again to Mike McLaughlin for joining us, fantastic insight as always!

Subscribe to our podcast on all major directories; and stay up to date with the latest in fantasy hockey news and fantasy hockey advice. Be sure to visit LeftWingLock.com, the best source for fantasy hockey intelligence; and The Hockey Podcast Network for more great hockey-related content.

Highlights:

• Josh Norris done for the season
• Letang activated, makes immediate impact for Pittsburgh
• Reinforcements arrive for St. Louis
• Gostisbehere out up to 6 weeks
• Auston Matthews out at least 3 weeks for Toronto
• UPDATED RANKINGS!

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John’s List

If you have been listening to our podcast for a while, you’ve undoubtedly heard about “John’s List”; which is basically John’s $h!t list of players past and present. If you have any suggestions for players/subjects we should add to the list, let us know!

Trevor Zegras – For his comments on Saturday night to Troy Stetcher regarding his deceased father (see below). 

Trevor Zegras makes John’s List this week after acting like a complete clown on Saturday. Be better. 🤡👎 #FlyTogether #NHL pic.twitter.com/epZYXijs7g

— Fantasy Hockey Hacks (@FHHacks) January 29, 2023

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Fantasy Lock Of The Week (January 23 – 29, 2023) | Presented by Left Wing Lock

🔥Claude Giroux, C/RW, 92% Rostered (Yahoo)

The former Flyers captain is off to a great start in Ottawa with 47 points (19 goals) in 49 games played this season. That’s an 82-game pace of 79 points and 32 goals at 35 years of age! This has been Giroux’s best offensive season since 2018-2019 when he posted 85 points in 82 games. 

7 Points (4 Goals), 1 GWG, 3 PPP, 11 SOG, +2, 38.5% PP Share, 17:04 ATOI in 3 games played during week 16.

omg, Claude Giroux that toe drag was NASTY 🤢 pic.twitter.com/sbEj43nsM8

— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) January 28, 2023

Headlines W/ The Hacks | January 23 – 29, 2023

Headlines This Week

• More shoulder problems for Josh Norris, he will now have season ending surgery on his injured shoulder.
• Kris Letang was activated from IR on Monday. In his return he racked up 4 points. 2 on the powerplay, 6 shots on goal, 4 hits and 2 blocked shots. 
• On Tuesday the St Louis Blues activated defenseman Tory Krug and winger Vladimir Terasenko from IR. Krug has 2 points w/ 2 sog in his return. Terasenko had no points on 6 shots on goal
• Frederick Anderson left Wednesday night’s game vs the Stars with an upper body injury.
• The Vancouver Canucks have signed forward Andrei Kuzmenko to a 2 year 5.5 million dollar contract extension. Kuzmenko has 43 points (21 goals and 22 assists) in 47 games this season

• Coyotes defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere will miss the next 4 to 6 weeks with an upper body injury.
• Cale Makar returned to the Avalanche lineup on Thursday, he has missed the last 4 games with an upper body injury
• The Toronto Maple Leafs announced Friday that Austin Matthews will be out at least 3 weeks with a sprained knee. 
• Islanders defenseman Noah Dobson will be out till after the all star break with a lower body injury. Dobson has 10 goals and 27 points in 48 games so far this season.
• There will be some happy Logan Couture owners today. In the Sharks game vs the Penguins Saturday night Couture racked up a career high 5 points in a game. 2 goals and 3 assists in a Sharks win
• EBUG Sighting in Edmonton Saturday night! With Stuart Skinner a late scratch due to illness. EBUG Matt Berlin was the backup for Jack Campbell. With 2:26 left in the game and the Oilers up 7-3 Matt Berlin entered the game for the Oilers. Berlin faced a single shot and a memory that will last a lifetime.
• Speaking of the Oilers, Connor McDavid with yet another milestone. He became the first active player to reach 90 points in 50 or fewer games three times.

Edge Work | NHL Schedule, Week 17

The segment where we put in the work to give you the EDGE in your fantasy hockey leagues! 

Need To Know: 

Week 17 is going to be a SLOW WEEK folks. With All-Star Weekend on the horizon, just 11 teams play this week, with the remainder out of action until week 18. There are a total of 6 games on the schedule; with games taking place on Monday (1), Tuesday (3), and Wednesday (2). 

In terms of optimizing the schedule, the Carolina Hurricanes are the ONLY team to play 2 games; which take place on back-to-back nights, so look for a spot start for Raanta there.

• Monday – 1 Games
• Tuesday – 3 Games
• Wednesday – 2 Games
• Thursday – 0 Games
• Friday – 0 Games
• Saturday – 0 Games
• Sunday – 0 Games

Edge Work | Waiver Wire Targets, NHL Week 17

Waiver wire targets will be focused on players with ownership ~50% or less. SOS = Strength of Schedule, according to Left Wing Lock. Lower number = Easier Schedule, Higher Number = Harder Schedule.  

Top Waiver Wire Targets

🎯 TJ Oshie (C/RW), WSH | Rostered: 32% (Yahoo) | GP: 1 (@CBJ, -2 SOS) | Line: (w/ Ovechkin & Strome, PP1) 

• Oshie is in the midst of a bit of a cold streak, posting just a single goal in his last 4 games. However, Oshie also finds himself playing on the Caps top line with Ovi and Strome, as well as the top power play unit. Better yet, the Caps only game next week is against the lowly Columbus Blue Jackets, a team that Oshie has 2 goals against in 2 games played this season. NOTE: 13.7 iSH% is below 3-year (16.8%) and career (14.7%) averages.

🎯 Kirby Dach (C/RW), MTL | Rostered: 24% (Yahoo) | GP: 1 (Vs.OTT, +3 SOS) | Line: (w/ Hoffman & Ylonen, PP1) 

• 9 points and 5 goals in his last 10 games played, and a spot on the Habs top power play; Dach could be a productive waiver wire target for next week. Against the Sens in December, the former Blackhawk scored a goal to go along with 6 PIMS. On-pace for a career-best 54 points and 17 goals. NOTE: 

🎯 Teuvo Teravainen (LW/RW), CAR | Rostered: 63% (Yahoo) | GP: 2 (Vs.LAK, @BUF, +10 SOS) | Line: 1 (w/ Aho & Jarvis, PP2) 

• It has been an underwhelming season for the 28-year old winger, who is on-pace for just 47 points – his lowest offensive output since 2016-2017. Fortunately for Teravainen, Pacioretty’s absence has opened the door for some better deployment, and the points have started to come. 9 points (1 goal) in his last 11 games played, and time on the first PP unit. NOTE: 2.0 SOG/GM the lowest in 5 seasons, 4.9 iSH% below 3-year (9.3%) and career (9.8%) averages. Nearly 60% OZ Start%. 

🎯 David Krejci (C), BOS | Rostered: 46% (Yahoo) | GP: 1 (@TOR, +9 SOS) | Line: (w/ Pastrnak & Zacha, PP2) 

• We’ve mentioned Krejci before, but in a week with so few games, it bares repeating that he should be on your fantasy radar. Miraculously, the 36-year old has 40 points (12 goals) in 43 games to date this season. That’s an 82-game pace of 76 points and 23 goals, which would set a new career-high for Krejci! 12 points (2 goals) in his last 9 contests. I just don’t understand why he is still rostered by so few teams… NOTE: 17.9 iSH% well-above 3-year (13.3%) and career (12.6%) averages. 12.2 tEVSH% is also a career-high and obviously a red flag. 

🎯 Brayden Schenn (C/LW), STL | Rostered: 56% (Yahoo) | GP: 1 (@WPG, -4 SOS) | Line: (w/ Tarasenko & Barbashev, PP1) 

• Brayden Schenn has fared quite well against the Winnipeg Jets lately, posting 9 points (2 goals) in his last 10 regular season matchups. The Blues are dealing with injuries, so Schenn finds himself playing 1C and on the top PP unit. Schenn has 3 points (2 goals) in his last 4 games played, and has generally been a reliable source for hits and faceoff wins – if your league includes those categories. It’s also worth mentioning that despite some offensive struggles, Schenn is still on-pace for 60 points and 20 goals.

🎯Owen Power (D), BUF | Rostered: 51% (Yahoo) | GP: 1 (Vs.CAR, +11 SOS) | Line: 2 (w/ Jokiharju, PP2) 

• The Hulking 20-year old is heating up offensively with a 4-game point streak (3 goals, 1 assist) after goals in three consecutive contests. The shot volume leaves lots to be desired at just 1.6 SOG/GM, but Power is playing nearly 24 minutes per night, gets time on the 2nd PP unit, and starts over 57% of his shifts in the offensive zone. Could be a worthy waiver wire target for one game next week. NOTE: 11.1 tEVSH% is a concern; 4.1 iSH% may be a touch low based on a limited sample size from Power. 

🎯Brady Skjei (D), CAR | Rostered: 44% (Yahoo) | GP: 2 (Vs.LAK, @BUF, +10 SOS) | Line: 2 (w/ Pesce, PP1) 

• Playing on the only team next week with more than 1 game already makes Brady Skjei (and the rest of the Canes) a valuable target. When you consider that Skjei is now getting time on PP1 over Brent Burns, the former Ranger becomes a must-add for next week. In his last two games, Skjei played 64% PP Share and a season-high 28:43 TOI. 7 points (4 goals) in his last 10 games; 82-game pace of 17 goals and 38 points. NOTE: 9.3 iSH% well above 3-year (5.6%) and career (5.0%) averages.

🎯 Anton Forsberg (G), OTT | Rostered: 43% (Yahoo) | GP: 1 (@MTL, -7 SOS) | Role: Starter (51% Net Share)

• Cam Talbot (lower-body) is likely out until after the All-Star break and Anton Forsberg will be shouldering the load for next week. Forsberg was great on Friday night against the Maple Leafs, making 31 saves and posting a 2.00 GAA and .939 SV% in a 6-2 win. The Sens single matchup next week is against the Montreal Canadiens, who are one of the contenders to win the Connor Bedard sweepstakes. In his last 3 games against the Habs, Forsberg is 3-0-0 with a 2.68 GAA and .927 SV%.

🎯 Antti Raanta (G), CAR | Rostered: 47% (Yahoo) | GP: 2 (Vs.LAK, @BUF, +10 SOS) | Role: Starter (37% Net Share)

• Frederick Andersen dealt with yet another injury recently, but was healthy enough to back up Antti Raanta on Friday night against the San Jose Sharks. The Canes play a set of back-to-back games next week, so expect Raanta to get at least 1 start. NOTE: .843 PKSV% suggests Raanta could see some improvement in his numbers.

Edge Work | Weekly Rankings (Powered By Left Wing Lock)

New to Edge Work this season, the Hacks will provide weekly player rankings, powered by our partner, Left Wing Lock! The full weekly rankings list can be accessed here; and each episode we’ll work our way through the risers and fallers in fantasy.

Rankings Risers

📈Sebastian Aho (C), CAR | +10 | #35

• With points in eight of his last nine games and six points in his most recent three games, Aho is on a heater. For the season, he has 43 points in 41 games and is generating over three shots per game (3.1). His luck metrics look healthy so managers should expect more of the same down the stretch.

📈Zach Hyman (LW/RW), EDM | +20 | #43

• Hyman has 16 points in the last seven games to bring his total to 60 points on the season (in just 49 games). The Edmonton winger is now on pace for 100 points and generating almost four shots per game (3.86). We love this level of shot volume out of Hyman — as he had just 2.75 shots per game over the past two seasons. There is cause for concern here though: Edmonton is shooting with 10.9% success with Hyman on the ice. As a result, Hyman’s assist rates (both primary and secondary are through the roof). Managers should view Hyman as closer to a point-per-game player. This makes him a candidate for a trade — but keep in mind it will be very difficult to replace this level of shot production.

📈Claude Giroux (C/RW), OTT | +16 | #75

• Giroux put an exclamation on his recent performance by earning three points last night over Montreal bringing his recent total to eight points in four games. Giroux comes in at just under a point per game (47 in 49) with mixed luck metrics: his SH% is high at 16.1%, but his tEVSH% is low at just 7.1%. Expect a modest drop-off in goals potentially coupled with a modest gain in assists.

Rankings Fallers

📉Pierre-Luc Dubois (C), WPG | -16 | #58

• Although Dubois is sitting at 52 points in 51 games so far this season, he has just four points in his most recent 10 games. Over that same stretch he has just one assist — and that might not be too surprising when you examine his secondary assist rate this season: it sits 46% above his career average, even after this dry spell. With a tEVSH% of 10.4%, we see more downside here for the Winnipeg center.

📉Mark Scheifele (C), WPG | -25 | #82

• Scheifele went cold this past week with just two points in four games. On the season, he sits at 45 points in 51 games, but that production has been boosted by a lucky shooting percentage of 21.8%. You know the drill by now: there is no such thing as a 20% shooter in the NHL. Expect Scheifele’s goal production (29 in 51 games) to drop off in the second half.

📉Josh Morrissey (D), WPG | -13 | #134

• It’s an all-Winnipeg faller’s list as defenseman Josh Morrissey finds himself as the third entry for the week. Morrissey was the golden child up until Christmas when he was on pace for 97 points (right about the time we suggested trading him for Quinn Hughes). Morrissey went pointless this week in four games against weaker opponents (PHI, NSH, BUF, PHI) and has just 13 points in his most recent 19 games — which is 56-point pace instead of 97-point pace for those counting at home. With a high SH% (8.7%), high tEVSH% (9.4%), and a high IPP (54%), we don’t see a strong reason to expect a jump in performance down the stretch.

New To The List (NTL)

📈Kirby Dach (C), MTL | NTL | #191

• Kirby Dach debuts on the list at #191 after posting three points in three games this week. The Montreal center is on pace for 52 points and has seen a rise in his shot production to nearly 2.5 shots per game since the New Year (on the season, he’s averaging 1.9 shots per game). He could make for a sneaky target in the second half as his IPP suggests more upside here.

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