NHL Fantasy Preview – Week 19
Episode 101 of the Fantasy Hockey Hacks Podcast! Week 18 of the NHL was filled with trades, trade rumours, and plenty of offense! As we do each week, we’ll check in on John’s list, “hack” our way through the NHL’s Headlines, go through the week’s schedule, make recommendations for waiver wire adds, and discuss our weekly Rankings Risers & Fallers (Top 200 Rankings) – Powered By Left Wing Lock. Thank you again to Mike McLaughlin for joining us, fantastic insight as always!
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- Vladimir Tarasenko traded to the New York Rangers. Does Patrick Kane still get moved?
- Trade rumours – where does Chychrun land? Erik Karlsson in Edmonton?
- Dylan Cozens signs long-term in Buffalo
- Jack Hughes week-to-week
- Matt Murray out for a couple weeks
- Troy Terry on IR
- Anton Forsberg stretchered off the ice
- UPDATED RANKINGS!
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If you have been listening to our podcast for a while, you’ve undoubtedly heard about “John’s List”; which is basically John’s $h!t list of players past and present. If you have any suggestions for players/subjects we should add to the list, let us know!
Ken Holland (Possibly) – If he fails to trade for an impactful defenceman.
Fantasy Lock Of The Week (February 6 – 12, 2023) | Presented by Left Wing Lock
🔥Artemi Panarin, LW, 98% Rostered (Yahoo)
Put up 5 points (4 goals) in just 15:31 TOI, against the Carolina Hurricanes!
9 Points (4 Goals), 1 GWG, 2 PPP, 9 SOG, +5, 66.8% PP Share, 17:55 TOI in 4 games played during week 18.
HAVE A NIGHT, BREADMAN! 🍞
— NHL (@NHL) February 12, 2023
Headlines W/ The Hacks | February 6 -12, 2023
Headlines This Week
- We start the week with a contract signing. The Buffalo Sabres signed Dylan Cousins to a 7 year contract extension with an aav of 7.1 million dollars
- The New York Rangers have acquired winger Valdimir Tarasenko and Niko Mikkola from the St Louis Blues for 1st Round Pick, Sammy Blais, Hunter Skinner, 4th round pick and retain 50% of Taraseko’s salary.
- The LA Kings have signed goaltender Phoenix Copley to a 1 year $1.5 million dollar contract extension. In 20 games this season with the Kings his record is 15-3 with a 2.92 GAA and a .897 SA%
- Jacob Chychrun is a healthy scratch tonight vs the St Louis Blues for hockey trade reasons.
- Rasmus Anderson is day to day after being hit by car on Wednesday on the way to dinner with his team mates
Injury News – The bad
- If you had Jack Hughes annual injury on your bingo card mark it off. The Devils announce he is week to week with an upper body injury.
- The Seattle Kraken have placed forward Andre Burakovsky on IR. He is currently leading the Kraken in points with 39 points in 49 games.
- The Toronto Maple Leafs announce Goaltender Matt Murray will miss the next 2 weeks with an ankle injury.
- Troy Terry has been placed on IR by the Ducks after suffering an upper body injury on Monday. He is week to week
- Logan Thompson of the Golden Knights was helped off the ice Thursday night, he is week to week with a lower body injury
- Anton Forsberg of the Ottawa Senators was stretchered off the ice in the 3rd period Saturday vs the Oilers. It did not look good.
Injury News – Injuries to Watch
- The Ottawa Senators placed Cam Talbot on IR
- Jonathon Toews of the Black Hawks will miss their weekend games with an illness
- Lucas Raymond is day to day after crashing into Ben Chirot during practice on Friday.
- Cale Makar is day to day after suffering a head injury on Tuesday vs the Penguins
- Alexsander Barkov is considered day to day, he is working through a hand injury. He has not played since Wednesday
Edge Work | NHL Schedule, Week 19
The segment where we put in the work to give you the EDGE in your fantasy hockey leagues!
Need To Know:
In Week 19 the NHL schedule gets back to normal, following a fairly quiet week post all-star break. In typical fashion, Tuesday (9), Thursday (8), and Saturday (13) are the busiest nights this week. There are a total of 52 games on the schedule; and 4 “light days” (50% or fewer NHL teams in action) with Monday (5), Wednesday (6), Friday (5), and Sunday (6) being slower days.
In terms of optimizing the schedule, the Minnesota Wild are the ONLY team to play all 4 of their games on “light days”. 5 other teams happen to play 3 of their 4 games on light days – ARI, CHI, DET, NSH, and OTT.
Conversely, there are 3 teams next week that play just twice, and should be avoided, if possible – Anaheim, Philadelphia, and Las Vegas.
According to Left Wing Lock’s Strength Of Schedule metric, the Toronto Maple Leafs (Vs.CHI, Vs.MTL, @CHI), have the most favourable schedule at -40;. The Washington Capitals (Vs.CAR, Vs.FLA, @CAR) have the toughest schedule with a +18 strength of schedule rating.
- Monday – 5 Games
- Tuesday – 9 Games
- Wednesday – 6 Games
- Thursday – 8 Games
- Friday – 5 Games
- Saturday – 13 Games
- Sunday – 6 Games
Edge Work | Waiver Wire Targets, NHL Week 19
Waiver wire targets will be focused on players with ownership ~50% or less. SOS = Strength of Schedule, according to Left Wing Lock. Lower number = Easier Schedule, Higher Number = Harder Schedule.
Top Waiver Wire Targets
🎯 Ryan Hartman (C/RW), MIN | Rostered: 25% (Yahoo) | GP: 4 (Vs.FLA, Vs.COL, Vs.DAL, Vs.NSH, +11 SOS) | Line: 1 (w/ Kaprizov & Zuccarello, PP2)
- Ryan Hartman is fortunate enough to find himself playing between Kaprizov and Zuccarello on the top line in Minnesota. The production has yet to follow, but it should – Hartman’s TOI is back up around 18 minutes, relative to his season average of 14:44. NOTE: 7 iSH% well-below 3-year (12%) and career (10.2%) averages. 12.1 tEVSH% last season has corrected to 8% this year.
🎯 Alexis Lafreniere (LW/RW), NYR | Rostered: 31% (Yahoo) | GP: 3 (@VAN, @EDM, @CGY, +2 SOS) | Line: (w/ Chytil & Kakko, PP2)
- We recommended Lafreniere’s linemate (Chytil) last week, and that panned out just fine. With 7 points (3 goals) in his last 7 games, Lafreniere appears to be a nice waiver wire target for next week as well. NOTE: 8.7 iSH% is below his career average of 14.6%, 1.8 SOG/GM is a career-best, 2 hits/GM adds some extra value for those of you in bangers leagues.
🎯 Ondrej Palat (LW), NJD | Rostered: 28% (Yahoo) | GP: 4 (@CBJ, @STL, @PIT, Vs.WPG, -5 SOS) | Line: (w/ Hischier & Bratt, PP2)
- The former Bolt finds himself in the top line next to Hischier and Bratt, while posting 9 points (3 goals) and 18 hits (2/GM) in his last 9 games played! With Jack Hughes week-to-week, it has also opened up a spot on the top power play unit, where Palat has seen nearly 70% PP Share over the last two games. NOTE: 1.6 SOG/GM is underwhelming, and 20 iSH% is not sustainable.
🎯 Brock Boeser (RW), VAN | Rostered: 47% (Yahoo) | GP: 3 (Vs.DET, Vs.NYR, Vs.PHI, 0 SOS) | Line: (w/ Dries & Joshua, PP2)
- Surprisingly, Boeser is on-pace for 65 points and ~20 goals; not bad production from a player rostered in less than 50% of Yahoo leagues. 7 points (1 goal) in his last 4 games played. There are a few red flags to keep in mind though… NOTE: 12.1 tEVSH% a career-high, OZ Start% is down and so is ATOI (16:47). 2.2 SOG/GM is a career-low.
🎯 Barrett Hayton (C), ARI | Rostered: 5% (Yahoo) | GP: 4 (@NSH, Vs.TB, @LAK, Vs.CBJ, -13 SOS) | Line: (w/ Keller & Schmaltz, PP1)
The 22-year old Yote has great line mates and has managed to post 5 points (2 goals) in his last 5 contests. For those of you in leagues that count faceoffs, Hayton has won nearly 60% of his faceoffs over his last 10 games played. Mix in a four-game schedule, and you have a worthy waiver wire target for the upcoming week. NOTE: 6.9 iSH% is well-down from the 12.2% he shot last year.
🎯Noah Hanifin (D), CGY | Rostered: 58% (Yahoo) | GP: 3 (@OTT, Vs.DET, Vs.NYR, -2 SOS) | Line: 1 (w/ Tanev, PP1)
- Noah Hanifin looks like he’ll settle in around his 3-year average of 39 points and 8 goals; though he may still exceed that mark this season. Shooting at a career-best 2.3 SOG/GM and seeing more time in the first PP unit (2:06/GM is the 2nd highest outside his rookie season) are certainly helpful; while also playing nearly 25 minutes per game in his most recent 4 or 5 games. 6 points (1 goal in his last 7 games. NOTE: 3.3 iSH% is below his 3-year (4.5%) and career (4.4%) averages. 54.7 OZ Start% highest in 5 seasons.
🎯Sam Girard (D), COL | Rostered: 18% (Yahoo) | GP: 4 (Vs.TB, @MIN, @STL, Vs.EDM, +6 SOS) | Line: 1 (w/ Toews, PP2)
- Samuel Girard is playing well of late with 7 points (1 goal) in his last outings. With Makar out of the lineup he has taken over a spot in the top pairing, playing nearly 23 minutes per game. Exposure to the Avs top line is never a bad thing, and Girard is shooting more recently with 14 SOG over his last 4 games (3.5/GM). NOTE: 5.1 tEVSH% is a career-low, 60.7 IPP is astronomically high for a Dman.
🎯Adam Boqvist (D), CBJ | Rostered: 6% (Yahoo) | GP: 4 (Vs.NJD, Vs.WPG, @DAL, @ARI, +12 SOS) | Line: 3 (w/ Blankenburg, PP1)
- We’re probably scraping the bottom of the barrel with try is one; but Adam Boqvist is a power play specialist with 7 points in his last 12 games played (3 in his last 5).
ALSO: Last call for John Klingberg (D, 39%, ANA) – 5 points (1 goal) in his last 4 games played. Just two games next week (BUF, LAK), but a trade to a contender seems imminent.
🎯 Adin Hill (G), VGK | Rostered: 31% (Yahoo) | GP: 2 (Vs.SJS, Vs.TB, -9 SOS) | Role: Backup (38% Net Share)
- Logan Thompson went down with a non-contact leg injury, and was scheduled for an MRI on Friday. Nobody knows the extent of the injury at this time, but if it is long-term, Adin Hill has a real opportunity. In his last 5 appearances, Hill is 2-2-0 with a 1.87 GAA, .935 SV%, and 1.58 GSAx. Worth a speculative add at this time, despite just two games on the schedule for Vegas next week.
🎯 Anton Forsberg (G), OTT | Rostered: 45% (Yahoo) | GP: 4 (Vs.CGY, @NYI, Vs.CHI, Vs.STL, -11 SOS) | Role: Backup (54% Net Share)
- Anton Forsberg appeared in 10 of 14 games for the Senators during the month of January; so the volume partially makes up for some of the inconsistent play we have seen from him. In January Forsberg went 6-2-0 (with 2 Shutouts) in 10 appearances, while sporting a 2.96 GAA and .903 SV%. Not great numbers overall, but he did have some very strong games at times. For example, in his last 4 appearances, Forsberg posted a 3-0-0 record with a 1.98 GAA, .939 SV%, and 6.07 GSAx. NOTE: .914 EVSV% is the second-best of his career to date; .857 PKSV% suggests his performance has NOT been boosted by luck. UPDATE: Forsberg was taken off the ice on a stretcher Saturday after a collision with Zach Hyman of the Edmonton Oilers.
Edge Work | Weekly Rankings (Powered By Left Wing Lock)
New to Edge Work this season, the Hacks will provide weekly player rankings, powered by our partner, Left Wing Lock! The full weekly rankings list can be accessed here; and each episode we’ll work our way through the risers and fallers in fantasy.
📈Sebastian Aho (C), CAR | +10 | #35
📉Pierre-Luc Dubois (C), WPG | -16 | #58
New To The List (NTL)
📈Kirby Dach (C), MTL | NTL | #191
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