NHL Fantasy Preview – Week 7
Episode 89 of the Fantasy Hockey Hacks Podcast! Week 6 of the NHL continued to entertain, highlighted by long-term injuries around the league, and more winning-ways from the New Jersey Devils, who have now won 12-straight contests! As we do each week, we’ll check in on John’s list, “hack” our way through the NHL’s Headlines, go through the week’s schedule, make recommendations for waiver wire adds, and discuss our weekly Top 200 Rankings – Powered By Left Wing Lock.
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Highlights:
- Enter to win a Hacks Holiday in Vegas!
- The Columbus Blue Jackets are dropping like flies
- Marc-Andre Fleury out at least a week with an upper-body injury
- Nikolaj Ehlers out indefinitely following sports hernia surgery.
- Nick Schmaltz and Jakob Chychrun set to return in Arizona
- Does Pyotr Kotchetkov have staying power with the Hurricanes?
- Sam Steel centering Kaprizov & Zuccarello!
- UPDATED RANKINGS!
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John’s List
If you have been listening to our podcast for a while, you’ve undoubtedly heard about “John’s List”; which is basically John’s $h!t list of players past and present. If you have any suggestions for players/subjects we should add to the list, let us know!
Alex Edler – For leading with his knee on McDavid. Fuck him.
slow motion look at alex edler’s knee on connor mcdavid. pic.twitter.com/oo2lc1DbmW
— zach (@zjlaing) November 17, 2022
—
Fantasy Lock Of The Week (October 23 – 30, 2022) | Presented by Left Wing Lock
🔥Pavel Buchnevich, LW/RW, 80% Rostered (Yahoo)
12 points and 4 goals in 12 games played to date this season – 8 Points (3 Goals), 2 PPP, 1 GWG, 10 SOG, +5, 68.3% PP Share, 18:51 ATOI in 4 games played during week 6.
Headlines W/ The Hacks | November 13 – 20, 2022
Injury News – The Bad
- The Toronto Maple Leafs announce Jake Muzzin is out indefinitely with a cervical spine injury. He would be reevaluated in February. The Leafs also announce that TJ Brodie has been placed on IR with an oblique injury.
- The Columbus Blue Jackets winger Patrik Laine is expected to miss 3-4 weeks with an ankle sprain.
- Another hit to the Avs defense, Kurtis MacDermid will be out 4-6 weeks with a lower body injury. Samuel Girard is still considered day to day and Bowen Byram is week to week.
- Columbus just cannot catch a break this season. They lost both Jake Bean (upper body injury) and Elvis Merzlikins (lower body injury) Tuesday night vs the Flyers. UPDATE: Elivs will be out of the lineup for 1-2 weeks.
- Montreal Canadiens forward Jonathan Drouin is out 4-6 weeks with an upper body injury. He suffered the injury in Nov 5th game
- The Minnesota Wild announced on Wednesday that Marc Andre Fleury will be out with an upper body injury. He is considered day to day
- Dallas Star Scott Wedgewood was stretchered off the ice THursday night with an upper body injury. POst game report says he was moving around under his own power and in good spirits. there has been no official update from the team.
- Sabres goalie Eric Comrie will be out multiple weeks with a knee injury.
- Nikolaj Ehlers of the Winnipeg Jets will have sports hernia surgery next week. There is no time table for his return
Injury News – The Good
- Jonathan Huberdeau returned to the Calgary Flames lineup on Monday after missing a few games to an upper/Lower body injury? He aslo scored his 200th career goal!
- Matt Murray was activated from LTIR by the Toronto Maple Leafs on Tuesday. Started vs the Penguins.
- Tyler Bertuzzi returned to the Red Wings lineup on Tuesday vs the Anaheim Ducks
- The Seattle Kraken activated goaltender Pilipp Grubauer from LTIR on Friday
Injury News – Keep An Eye On
- Word out of Arizona is Nick Schmaltz and Jakob Chychrun will return to the Coyotes lineup next week. Nov 21st in Nashville.
- Travis Konecney left Thursday night’s game with a hand injury. There was not update post game. He also missed Saturday’s game vs Montreal
- Rope Hintz was a late scratch for the Dallas Stars Saturday night with a lower body injury
Other News
- Pyotr Kochetkov of the Caroline Hurricanes recorded his 1st career shutout vs the BlackHawks Monday night in a 27 save, 3-0 win.
- John Tavares scored his 400th career goal vs the Penguins on Tuesday night.
- Phill Kessell of the Vegas Golden Knights reached the 1000 consecutive games played mark on Thursday. Check out the custom jersey they made for him.👇
The boys gifted Phil Kessel with some drip for his 1,000th consecutive game 🔥#Phi1Kessel pic.twitter.com/s0WNYAgFA8
— Vegas Golden Knights (@GoldenKnights) November 18, 2022
Ask The Hacks
- Got offered his McAvoy and Kubalik for my Burns and Benn. Thoughts? G A PPG PPA PIM SOG H BLK. Position wise it works out. Season long league, no keepers.
- Should I be concerned about Victor Hedman?
- TRADE ADVICE PLEASE:
- Receive: Fiala, Forsberg and Seguin
- Send: J. Robertson, Kuznetsov and Burns
- Bangers league
- G, A, PPP, GWG, PIMSOG, HIT, FW and B
- Goalies: W, GAA, SV% and S
- Positions: C, C, RW, RW, LW, LW, F, D x 4
- 18 Slots and IR and IR+
- My team:
- Forwards: B Tkachuk, JT Miller, Couture, Jenner, Robertson, Stephenson, Nylander, Perron, Ehlers, Streamer
- Defence: Burns, Seider, Carlson, Gudas, Martinez, S. Jones
- Goalies: Markstrom, Vanecek, Murray
- Rationale: Kuz is stuck at C on Yahoo which is difficult for FWs as I am lacking FW depth. Trading for Seguin is similar value and Seguin is C/RW. Robertson is hot right but will likely be on a similar pace as Forsberg and Fiala by the end of the season. Burns doesn’t hit at all and blocks very infrequently. He is good for A PPP and SOG. All of these categories are more easily attained by forwards.
- Tyler Bertuzzi back from IR. Who should I drop: Bertuzzi, Jamie Benn, Patrick Kane, Troy Terry, or Brayden Schenn? Others are untouchable. Thoughts? G, A, PPG, PPA, PIM, SOG, Hits, BLKs.
Edge Work | NHL Schedule, Week 7
The segment where we put in the work to give you the EDGE in your fantasy hockey leagues!
Need To Know:
When reviewing the NHL’s week 7 schedule, I was reminded of a quote from one of my favourite movies, “…just when I think you couldn’t possibly be any dumber, you go and do something like this… and totally redeem yourself!” Except the NHL did NOT redeem itself in any capacity with its schedule this week.
There are a total of 55 games on the schedule featuring just 3 “light days” (50% or fewer NHL teams in action) with Tuesday (2), Thursday (0), and Sunday (5) being exceptionally slow. I understand that Thursday is American Thanksgiving, but 55% of the league is made up of Canadians, and we want some hockey on an otherwise meaningless weekday. Monday, Wednesday, Friday and Saturday will be the packed days on the schedule, with 10, 15, 14 and 9 games respectively.
In terms of optimizing the schedule, Anaheim and San Jose both play 4 games next week, with 3 of those games at home, and 1 taking place on “light days” for both clubs. Both teams have fairly favourable schedules overall with a -10 rating for Anaheim (STL, NYR, OTT, SEA), and -1 for San Jose (OTT, SEA, LAK, VAN).
15 other NHL clubs also all play 4 games this upcoming week, with 12 teams playing 3 games, and just 3 teams (DET, FLA, TB) playing in a pair of games.
According to Left Wing Lock’s Strength Of Schedule metric, the Detroit Red Wings again have the most favourable schedule at -37; taking on Nashville and Arizona at home.
No team plays in fewer than 2 games this week; but the Edmonton Oilers do have the toughest schedule with a +25 SOS rating. The Oilers are on the east coast this week, taking on New Jersey (12-3), New York Islanders (11-6), and New York Rangers (8-6-3) – all teams currently with more points.
- Monday – 10 Games
- Tuesday – 2 Games
- Wednesday – 15 Games
- Thursday – 0 Games
- Friday – 14 Games
- Saturday – 9 Games
- Sunday – 5 Games
Edge Work | Waiver Wire Targets, NHL Week 7
Waiver wire targets will be focused on players with ownership ~50% or less. SOS = Strength of Schedule, according to Left Wing Lock. Lower number = Easier Schedule, Higher Number = Harder Schedule.
Top Waiver Wire Targets
🎯 Blake Wheeler (RW), WPG | Rostered: 44% (Yahoo) | GP: 4 (Vs.CAR, MIN DAL CHI, -10 SOS) | Line: 2 (w/ Dubois & Perfetti, PP2)
- The 36-year old former captain of the Jets is certainly not the 75-90 point player he was for the better part of the past decade. However, he’s still in the Jets top 6, and seeing time on the second power play unit. 6 points and 3 goals in his last 10 games; and 4 games on the schedule this week makes for an appealing streaming option in my mind. NOTE: 13.8 iSH% up versus 3-year average (11.7%), shot volume (1.8 SOG/GM) down; but 7.3 tEVSH% a reason for optimism. Also, Wheeler posted just 7 assists through the first 16 games of the season last year before exploding for 53 points (17 goals) in 49 games the rest of the season. 10 points (4 goals) through 16 games this season.
🎯 Trevor Moore (LW/RW), LAK | Rostered: 40% (Yahoo) | GP: 3 (Vs.NYR, @SJS, Vs.OTT, -16 SOS) | Line: 4 (w/ Danault & Arvidsson, PP2)
- Last season’s 48 points didn’t receive much attention, though Moore was noticeable in a first-round exit against the Oilers. Momentum carried into this season as the Kings forward entered Wednesday’s contest against Edmonton with 2 goals and 10 assists. Moore’s first-career hat trick against the Oilers raised his season total to five, and a total of 8 points and 4 goals in his last 10 games played. Playing over 18 minutes per night on the Kings’ second line and second power play unit. NOTE: Career-high 3.2 SOG/GM, and near career-low 7.9 iSH%! ALSO: Viktor Arvidsson (29%), Phillip Danault (35%)
🎯 Nick Schmaltz (C/RW), ARI | Rostered: 12% (Yahoo) | GP: 4 (@NSH, @CAR, @DET, @MIN, +7 SOS) | Line: 1 (w/ TBD, PP1)
The Coyotes center is expected to return on November 21st, against the struggling Nashville Predators. Many of you will recall just how effective Schmaltz was down the stretch last season, producing 58 points (23 goals) in the final 57 games of the year. Note, Schmaltz was shooting at nearly 19% and his 13 tEVSH% does indicate that his production was boosted by luck; but still, the former Hawk could provide depth scoring for your fantasy roster.
🎯 Sam Steel (LW/RW), NJD | Rostered: 20% (Yahoo) | GP: 3 (Vs.WPG, Vs.TOR, Vs.ARI, +0 SOS) | Line: 1 (w/ Kaprizov & Zuccarello, PP2)
- The former Duck found himself playing on the Wild’s top line next to Kaprizov and Zuccarello. Things went essentially as you’d expect, with Steel posting a goal and an assist to go along with a 59% FOW% and 2 shots on goal. Steel’s line was excellent at even-strength, outshooting the opposition 7 to 1, and outscoring 1 to 0.
🎯 Tomas Tatar (LW/RW), NJD | Rostered: 20% (Yahoo) | GP: 4 (Vs.EDM, Vs.TOR, @BUF, Vs.WSH, -12 SOS) | Line: 1 (w/ Hischier & Zetterlund, PP2)
- Before going pointless in his last 3 games, Tatar had posted 9 points and 2 goals in the previous 7 games. On-pace for 50 points, and shooting at his highest-rate (2.1 SOG/GM) since 2019-2020; Tatar has some real appeal (particularly in points only leagues) on a white-hot Devils squad.
🎯 Jason Zucker (LW), PIT | Rostered: 39% (Yahoo) | GP: 3 (Vs.CGY, @PHI, Vs.TOR, -2 SOS) | Line: 2 (w/ Malkin & Rust, PP2)
- Believe it or not, but Jason Zucker has 15 points (5 goals) in 16 games played to date this season! Playing alongside Evgeni Malkin and Bryan Rust certainly doesn’t hurt, but it should be noted that Zucker’s shot volume (2.7 SOG/GM) is the best we have seen from him since 2017-2018; and for those playing in bangers leagues, Zucker has thrown 44 hits in 16 games (2.75 Hits/GM)!! NOTE: 10.3 tEVSH% slightly elevated relative to league average.
🎯 Logan Couture (C), SJS | Rostered: 32% (Yahoo) | GP: 4 (Vs.OTT, @SEA, Vs.LAK, Vs.VAN, 0 SOS) | Line: 2 (w/ Nieto & Barabanov, PP1)
- I have to start by mentioning that Logan Couture is currently shooting at nearly 22%, so there will be a correction in his production at some point. However, 14 points and 8 goals in 19 games is decent production and the Sharks Captain is chipping in with 1.5 hits per game as well. 10 points, 6 goals in his last 10 games played.
🎯 JG Pageau (C), NYI | Rostered: 14% (Yahoo) | GP: 4 (@TOR, Vs.EDM, @CBJ, Vs.PHI, -6 SOS) | Line: 3 (w/ Palmieri & Johnston, PP2)
- 30-year old Pageau is off to his best offensive season since 2019-2020 when he posted 42 points and 26 goals in 67 games. On-pace for 50 points and 14 goals this season, Pageau has 7 points and 3 goals in his last 10 games played. The former Sen’s shot volume has fallen off a cliff at 1.4 SOG/GM, but his 11.5 iSH% is below his 3-year average of 15%. Pageau is particularly valuable in bangers leagues though, averaging 3.06 hits per game this season! Also receiving a healthy 17:45 TOI and 2:16 PPTOI.
🎯 Noah Hanifin (D), CGY | Rostered: 52% (Yahoo) | GP: 4 (@PHI, @PIT, @WSH, @CAR, -3 SOS) | Line: 1 (w/ Andersson, PP2)
- After posting 48 points and 10 goals in 81 games last year, Hanifin has been a flop to start this year, with just 5 points and 1 goal through 15 contests. However, those 5 points and 1 goal have come in his last 8 games played. The shot volume (3.0 SOG/GM) is still great, Hanifin is shooting at a career-low 2.2%, and playing at a career-high 22:17/GM, so there is certainly reason for optimism. 4 games this week, ideal time to pick up Hanifin, possibly for the long-term.
🎯 Luke Schenn (D), VAN | Rostered: 51% (Yahoo) | GP: 4 (VGK, @COL, @VGK, @SJS, +8 SOS) | Line: 2 (w/ Hughes)
- Luke Schenn is an absolute category coverage monster. The Saskatoon native leads All NHL skaters in hits this season with 81 over 18 contests; an 82-game pace of 369 HITS!! Producing an average of 5 HITS per game over his last 10 games. Schenn is also on-pace for 32 points, and should post roughly 100 PIMS and 100 Blocks. As a 4th, 5th, or 6th defenseman that is fantastic value.
🎯 Cam Fowler (D), ANA | Rostered: 5% (Yahoo) | GP: 4 (@STL, Vs.NYR, Vs.OTT, Vs.SEA, -1 SOS) | Line: 1 (w/ Kulikov, PP2)
- After putting up 9 goals and 42 points in 76 games last year, Fowler is on-pace for just 27 points this season… However, Fowler is playing some massive minutes – averaging nearly 25 minutes per night, including 30:27 against Detroit on Tuesday. Also of note, over the last 3 contests, the long-time Ducks dman has taken over PP1 duties (66%, 73%, 100% PP Share), while posting 6 points (1 goal). With 4 games next week, this could be an ideal time to stream Fowler.
🎯 Ian Cole (D), TEAM | Rostered: 1% (Yahoo) | GP: 2 (Vs.BOS, Vs.STL, +9 SOS) | Line: 2 (w/ Sergachev)
- Ian Cole is playing next to one of the hottest players in the NHL – Mikhail Sergachev, and is on a nice little run of his own; posting 4 points, 1 goal, and 11 hits in his last 4 GP. Only two games on the schedule for next week, but the category coverage is hard to ignore – 20 SOG, 23 Hits, and 32 blocks to date.
🎯 Filip Gustavsson (G), MIN | Rostered: 20% (Yahoo) | GP: 3 (Vs.WPG, Vs.TOR, Vs.ARI, +0 SOS) | Role: Temporary Starter
- Marc-Andre Fleury has been placed on IR with an undisclosed upper-body injury that will keep him out for at least a week, possibly longer depending on the diagnosis. The Wild have called up AHL teammate Zane McIntyre to backup.Despite allowing five goals on Thursday, Gustavsson is still the clear starter until Fleury returns, as he produced solid efforts in his previous three appearances.
🎯 Jeremy Swayman (G), BOS | Rostered: 69% (Yahoo) | GP: 3 (@TB, @FLA, Vs.CAR, +0 SOS) | Role: Backup (25% Net Share)
- Jeremy Swayman is likely to start on Saturday, monitor the situation closely. It’s been a rocky start for Swayman, posting a 3.45 GAA and .878 SV% through 4 appearances to date this season. Conversely, Linus Ullmark has been nothing spectacular so far this season, so Swayman will need to post a few quality starts to get back in the conversation.
🎯 Casey DeSmith (G), PIT | Rostered: 19% (Yahoo) | GP: 3 (Vs.CGY, @PHI, Vs.TOR -2 SOS) | Role: Tandem (47% Net Share)
- Casey DeSmith has started 4 of the last 7 games for the Penguins as Tristan Jarry continues to struggle early in the season. DeSmith himself has posted fairly pedestrian numbers (2.86 GAA, .907 SV%, 0.385 GSAA), but could be a worthy streamer while he is playing as part of a tandem in Pittsburgh.
🎯 Joonas Korpisalo (G), CBJ | Rostered: 13% (Yahoo) | GP: 3 (Vs.MTL, Vs.NYI, @NSH, -5 SOS) | Role: Backup (27% Net Share)
- Elvis Merzlikins left Tuesday night’s game, and was not putting any weight on his left leg. Aaron Portzline of The Athletic later reported that Merzlikins would miss up to 2 weeks with a lower-body injury. Sporting a 3-1-1 record with a 3.76 GAA (😬), .909 SV%, and 0.77 GSAA, Korpisalo has actually been serviceable in a limited sample size. Be selective with matchups.
🎯 Craig Anderson (G), BUF | Rostered: 13% (Yahoo) | GP: 3 (@MTL, Vs.STL, Vs.NJD, -5 SOS) | Role: Starter (41% Net Share)
- With news that Eric Comrie will be out multiple weeks, Veteran netminder Craig Anderson should see plenty of starts over the next few weeks. 3-3-0 record with a 2.82 GAA, .910 SV%, 1.10 GSAA, and 0.79 GSAx, serviceable numbers no question. As a bonus, the Sabres have a reasonably favourable schedule upcoming, save for a matchup with the league’s hottest team – the New Jersey Devils.
Edge Work | Weekly Rankings (Powered By Left Wing Lock)
New to Edge Work this season, the Hacks will provide weekly player rankings, powered by our partner, Left Wing Lock! The full weekly rankings list can be accessed here; and each episode we’ll work our way through the risers and fallers in fantasy.
Rankings Risers
📈Kyle Connor (LW), WPG | +8 | #27
- There is no greater weapon early in the fantasy hockey season than patience. Managers who weathered the goal-scoring drought of Kyle Connor were rewarded this past week with a Thursday night hat trick. With a SH% of just 8.5%, tEVSH% of just 6.5%, and an IPP of just 64%, there is a lot more scoring on the way for Kyle Connor. Hold the line!
📈Roman Josi (D), NSH | +7 | #36
- Josi produced 5 points in 3 games this week and is currently on pace for 65 points for the season. He’s coming in lower-than-expected so far largely due to an unlucky SH% of 4.1% (his career average is 6.4% — that difference has cost him just under 2 goals in his first 18 games). Josi is 10th overall in shot generation (4.1 shots/game) and 1st among defensemen. When that SH% turns the corner, the points will flood in.
📈Dylan Larkin (C), DET | +15 | #48
- Larkin was a late-round steal again this Summer with an ADP of 144. He had 5 points in 3 games this past week bringing his total production to 22 points in 18 games. Throw in monster numbers on the power play (8 PPP in 18 GP, 4.13 PPTOI) and 800+ face-off win pace and you’re looking at solid production across several categories. Be aware that Larkin’s production is being boosted by a lucky tEVSH% of 11.8%. If you’ve had thoughts of trying to move Larkin, he’s probably sitting at peak value.
Rankings Fallers
📉Kevin Fiala (G), LAK | -16 | #118
- fiala was limited to just 2 points in 4 games this week as the Los Angeles winger was dropped to the third line. He’s currently on pace for a respectable 70-point season. Your level of disappointment with that scoring rate depends on which side of the fence you were on with regard to Fiala’s projections this Summer (some of which were very high). He’s coming in just a little shy of both FHH’s and LWL’s projections which had him in the 75-79 point range.
📉Johnny Gaudreau (LW), CBJ | -12 | #123
- Gaudreau was drafted this Summer with an ADP of 20. Managers who took the bait on drafting him are likely in trouble as he’s on pace for just 73 points this season after his 115-point campaign last year. Is all lost for these managers? While Gaudreau did manage 3 points this week, his shot production is down to 2.9 shots/game (3.2 last season) and he has just 1 PPP through 17 games. You should expect his fortunes on the power play to turn, but drafting Gaudreau this early was a big draft-day mistake that managers are unlikely to recover from.
📉Trevor Zegras (C), ANA | -19 | #126
- Zegras is coming in just under his expected pace at 16 points in 18 games. While he did score 3 points in 3 games this past week, his drop in the rankings is a result of anemic power play production (he’s on pace for just 14 power play points). Anaheim currently ranks 28th in the league in power play opportunities at just 2.83 per game. Making matters worse, the Ducks rank 31st in power play efficiency, converting opportunities into goals at just 13.7%. We say this a lot, but it’s an important principle in fantasy hockey: there is no category more difficult to replace than power play points.
New To The List (NTL)
📈Mason Marchment (LW/RW), DAL | NTL | #188
- Marchment is quietly having a solid season for the Dallas Stars. He scored 4 points in 3 games this past week and now sits at 12 points in 18 games so far this season. This scoring rate, which is sustainable, puts him on pace for a 55-point season (LWL projected him at 56 points).
Contest Announcement | Hacks Holiday!
Help the Hacks celebrate 100 episodes of fantasy fun! We truly appreciate all the support we’ve received from listeners, partners, and guests, making this first 100 episodes a genuinely enjoyable experience. All of us on the podcast enjoy creating fantasy hockey content, and will do so for as long as people will listen. To show our appreciation, we are sending one listener and a guest on a “Hacks Holiday” to Las Vegas next February! Thank you to our partners – Lucky Bastard Distillers & Left Wing Lock – for their support in making this contest possible. Winner will receive:
- 2 tickets to a Vegas Golden Knights home game against the Tampa Bay Lightning – Saturday, February 18, 2023
- 2 round-trip tickets to Las Vegas
- 3-night accommodations at a hotel near T-Mobile Arena
- 1 year FREE subscription to the Left Wing Lock iPhone app!
Go to the contest page – FantasyHockeyHacks.com/HacksHoliday – and follow the directions to enter the contest.
“HACK THE CODE” Number For Episode 89: 4
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