NHL Fantasy Preview – Week 9

NHL Fantasy Preview – Week 9

Episode 91 of the Fantasy Hockey Hacks Podcast! Week 8 of the NHL continued to entertain, highlighted by more offensive magic from Connor McDavid and Jason Robertson; and a record-setting performance from Mitch Marner! As we do each week, we’ll check in on John’s list, “hack” our way through the NHL’s Headlines, go through the week’s schedule, make recommendations for waiver wire adds, and discuss our weekly Top 200 Rankings – Powered By Left Wing Lock.

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Highlights:

• Enter to win a Hacks Holiday in Vegas!
• Jason Robertson Hat Trick!
• More McDavid magic
• Kings waive Cal Petersen
• Kris Letang out indefinitely following his second stroke
• Tyler Bertuzzi out 6 weeks following surgery
• Patrik Laine back from injury, again.
• 1000 points for Steven Stamkos
• UPDATED RANKINGS!

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This Episode Is Brought To You By: Lucky Bastard Distillers

The Fantasy Hockey Hacks are a proud partner of Lucky Bastard Distillers! 

Opened in 2012 and inspired from a lottery win Lucky Bastard Distillers is proud to be the first Distillery to operate in Saskatoon since Prohibition. Home of Canada’s Ultimate Caesar, mix your drink tonight with Lucky Bastard. Use Promo Code “HOCKEYHACKS” to get 15% off your next online order, shipping available across Canada!

John’s List

If you have been listening to our podcast for a while, you’ve undoubtedly heard about “John’s List”; which is basically John’s $h!t list of players past and present. If you have any suggestions for players/subjects we should add to the list, let us know!

Jordan Binnington – For all of his extracurricular bullshit…

Jordan Binnington just hit Jason Zucker in the face as he was skating around the net?!#LetsGoPens #STLBlues pic.twitter.com/KnPSo5Ptgt

— Hockey Daily 365 l NHL Highlights (@HockeyDaily365) December 4, 2022

—

Fantasy Lock Of The Week (November 28 – December 4, 2022) | Presented by Left Wing Lock

🔥Mitch Marner, RW, 100% Rostered (Yahoo)

Marner set a new franchise record on Saturday night – 19-straight games with a point! 30 points and 9 goals in 26 games played to date this season. 3 Points (3 Goals), 10 SOG, +2, 68% PP Share, 18:28 ATOI in 3 games played during week 8.

Magic meets history 🪄 pic.twitter.com/DNXrjPhI0V

— Toronto Maple Leafs (@MapleLeafs) December 4, 2022

Headlines W/ The Hacks | November 28 – December 4, 2022

Injuries: The Bad

• • Travis Konceney has been placed on IR by the Flyers
  • James Reimer has been placed on IR by the San Jose Sharks
  • Kris Letang of the Penguins suffered a stroke on Monday. He is out indefinitely. We would like to wish Kris a speedy recovery
  • Tyler Bertuzzi has been placed in IR by the Red Wings, he had surgery on his hand and will be out approximately 6 weeks

Injuries: The Good

• • Ilya Samsonov was activated from IR on Wednesday to start vs the Sam Jose Sharks. The. Leafs won 3-1
  • Patrick Laine and Elvis Merzlikins has been activated from IR by the Blue Jackets
  • Travis Konecney has been activated from IR by the Flyers
  • Teuvo Teravainen has been activated from IR by the Hurricanes

Injuries: to watch

• • Frderick Anderson was talking shots in a before practice workout
  • Linus Ullmark was on the ice for practice on Monday 
  • Robert Thomas is day to day with a lower body injury
  • Mackenzie Blackwood joined the Devils for practice on Friday

Other news: 

• • Roope Hintz of the Dallas Stars signed an 8 year contract extension with $8.45 million dollars per season. 
  • In a surprising move the LA Kings placed goalie Cal Peterson on waivers after both Quick and Peterson allowed 9 goals in a loss to the Seattle Kraken. Peterson cleared waivers and has been sent to the AHL 
  • Steven Stamkos registered his 1000th career point vs the Flyers Thursday night
  • How about another Jason Robertson Appreciation post. First player to score 20 goals this season and now an 18 game point streak. He is now 3rd in NHL scoring with 41 points. Behind only 97 and 29!
  • Brock Boeser was suppose to be a healthy scratch on Saturday, then ended up playing and scored an important goal in there win over Arizona
  • On Saturday Alexander Ovechkin played in his 1300th career game with the Washington Capitals
  • Thomas Chabot reached the 200 point milestone on Saturday. 
  • Patrick Kane reached the 1200 point plateau on Saturday. He is only the 50th in NHL history to hit this milestone.
  • Mitch Marner’s point streak is now at 19 games.

Edge Work | NHL Schedule, Week 9

The segment where we put in the work to give you the EDGE in your fantasy hockey leagues! 

Need To Know: 

The NHL schedule has some balance again in week 9, with no less than 5 games played on any single day. Strangely, the busiest night this week takes place on a Friday, with just 10 games played. There are a total of 51 games on the schedule; and a total of 4 “light days” (50% or fewer NHL teams in action) with Monday (6), Wednesday (7), Thursday (5) and Sunday (6) being the slower days. Saturday is the second busiest day on the schedule with just 8 games on the slate. 

In terms of optimizing the schedule, there are a total of 10 teams that play 4 games, with 3 of those games taking place on “light days”. Of those teams specifically, the Calgary Flames have the best strength of schedule rating at -10, as they take on Arizona, Minnesota, Columbus, and Toronto. The Kings also have a reasonable schedule at a -5 rating, with games against Ottawa, Toronto, Montreal, and Columbus.

According to Left Wing Lock’s Strength Of Schedule metric, the Winnipeg Jets have the most favourable schedule this week at -21; taking on Florida, St. Louis, Chicago, and Washington. The Vegas Golden Knights technically have the toughest schedule with a +18 strength of schedule rating and matchups with Boston, New York (Rangers), Philadelphia, and Boston again. However, the schedule to avoid for next week is likely Chicago, who has a comparable SOS rating of +17, and just two games, with matchups against New Jersey and Winnipeg!

Anaheim, Carolina, Chicago, New Jersey, Nashville, and San Jose all play just two games next week; so consider dropping streamers from those teams, if possible. It should be noted that both of Nashville’s games do take place on light days, so that does help to fill in the schedule at the very least. 

• Monday – 6 Games
• Tuesday – 9 Games
• Wednesday – 7 Games
• Thursday – 5 Games
• Friday – 10 Games
• Saturday – 8 Games
• Sunday – 6 Games

Edge Work | Waiver Wire Targets, NHL Week 9

Waiver wire targets will be focused on players with ownership ~50% or less. SOS = Strength of Schedule, according to Left Wing Lock. Lower number = Easier Schedule, Higher Number = Harder Schedule.  

Top Waiver Wire Targets

🎯 Andrei Kuzmenko (FWD), VAN | Rostered: 45% (Yahoo) | GP: 3 (Vs.MTL, @SJS, @MIN, -16 SOS) | Line: 2 (w/ Pettersson & Mikheyev, PP1) 

• 9 points and 3 goals in his last 7 games, clicking on a line with Elias Pettersson. Kuzmenko appears to have finally figured it out with the Canucks, and is also getting time on the first power play unit, averaging nearly 3 minutes per game. On-pace for 71 points, but it should be noted that the 26-year old is shooting at 20.4%, which is obviously not sustainable. NOTE: 12.8 tEVSH%

🎯 Matty Beniers (C), SEA | Rostered: 42% (Yahoo) | GP: 3 (Vs.MTL, @WSH, @FLA -8 SOS) | Line: 2 (w/ McCann & Eberle, PP2) 

• 12 points and 5 goals in his last 6 games played, Beniers is on-pace for 75 points! However, the shot volume is less than ideal at 1.9 SOG/GM, and with a 23.3 iSH% and 11.7 tEVSH%, we can expect some serious regression in the near future. That said, great linemates and time on the second power play unit may curb that regression…

🎯 Cole Perfetti (C/LW/RW), WPG | Rostered: 26% (Yahoo) | GP: 4 (Vs.FLA, @STL, @CHI, Vs.WSH, -20 SOS) | Line: 2 (w/ Scheifele & Wheeler, PP2) 

• With an assist on Friday, Perfetti extended his point streak to four games (1 goal, 5 assists); and now has a total of 15 points in 22 games this season, a 56-point pace. Playing on the top line with Scheifele and Wheeler will go a long way in keeping Perfetti productive. NOTE: 10.5 tEVSH%

🎯 Viktor Arvidsson (LW/RW), LAK | Rostered: 24% (Yahoo) | GP: 4 (@OTT, @TOR, @MTL, @CBJ, -5 SOS) | Line: 2 (w/ Danault & Moore, PP2) 

• With 19 points and 5 goals in 24 games, Arvidsson is on-pace for 65 points this season, playing in the Kings top 6. The former Pred’s shot volume is at a career-low 2.0 SOG/GM, but he is converting at a slightly higher rate of 10.2% and his 7.4 tEVSH% lends to some positive regression. 

🎯 Dylan Cozens (C), BUF | Rostered: 28% (Yahoo) | GP: 3 (@CBJ, Vs.PIT, @PIT, -7 SOS) | Line: 2 (w/ Quinn & Peterka, PP2) 

• 11 points and 5 goals in his last 9 games played, the 21-year old is on-pace for 72 points. Playing in the top 6 and first PP unit. Career-high 14.3 iSH% and 2.6 SOG/GM. NOTE: 11.9 tEVSH%

🎯 Jonathan Toews (C), CHI | Rostered: 16% (Yahoo) | GP: 2 (@NJD, Vs.WPG, -16 SOS) | Line: 1 (w/ Kane & Athanasiou, PP1) 

• Pointless in his last three outings, but the Blackhawks captain is off to a solid season with 13 points (8 goals) in 22 games – a near 50-point pace. Toews found himself centering Patrick Kane on the Hawks top line for the first time this season, and also plays on the top power play unit. Shot volume leaves something to be desired at just 1.8 SOG/GM; but the 15-year veteran is winning 65.2% of his face-offs (258 face-offs), averaging nearly 12 FOW per game! NOTE: 20 iSH% well above 3-year (12.7%) and career (13.8%) averages; but an 8.4 tEVSH%, and 68 IPP suggest we could see more offense. 

🎯 Sean Monahan (C), MTL | Rostered: 5% (Yahoo) | GP: 3 (@VAN, @SEA, Vs.LAK, -6 SOS) | Line: 1 (w/ Anderson & Slafkovsky, PP1) 

• With two more assists on Thursday, the former Flame is up to 10 points and 3 goals in his last 10 games played; and 16 points in 23 games this season! On-pace for 57 points, which would be Monaghan’s best point total since 2018-2019, when he posted 82 points and 34 goals in 78 games. Also shooting at his best rate (2.1 SOG/GM) since 2018-2019 and converting at 10.2%; which is still well below his career average of 13.9%. The 28-year old is also winning face-offs at a career-high 55.2%, a nice bonus if your league counts that category. Add to that 3:07 PPTOI/GM on the top unit, along with over 17 and a half minutes time on ice, and you have a very solid waiver wire add. Very surprised to see he is just 5% rostered in Yahoo! 

🎯 Jeff Petry (D), PIT | Rostered: 72% (Yahoo) | GP: 3 (Vs.CBJ, @BUF, Vs.BUF, -9 SOS) | Line: 1 (w/ Dumoulin, PP1) 

• Unfortunate news out of Pittsburgh on Wednesday, as it was announced that Kris Letang suffered his second stroke since 2014. Letang missed two months after his first stroke, but went on to play 543 regular season and 69 playoff games, winning his second and third Stanley Cups. While the Pens #1 Dman is on the mend, off-season acquisition Jeff Petry will fill in on the top pairing and number one power play unit. Petry has 5 points in his last 9 games, and covers some peripheral categories nicely, particularly hits (3/GM) and blocks (2/GM).

🎯 Justin Schultz (D), SEA | Rostered: 32% (Yahoo) | GP: 3 (Vs.MTL, @WSH, @FLA, -9 SOS) | Line: 2 (w/ Oleksiak, PP2) 

• With 3 assists in a WILD 9-8 victory over the visiting Kings, Schultz is up to 10 points and 2 goals in his last 6 games played! Still just 20% rostered, and on-pace for 60 points, Schultz is widely available so take advantage while you can. NOTE: 9.1 iSH% well above 3-year average of 5.2%; 9.9 tEVSH% slightly elevated as well.

🎯 Adam Larsson (D), SEA | Rostered: 28% (Yahoo) | GP: 3 (Vs.MTL, @WSH, @FLA, -9 SOS) | Line: 1 (w/ Dunn) 

• Not as offensively inclined as his teammate, but Adam Larsson still has plenty of fantasy value to offer, given the right league settings. 

🎯 Evan Bouchard (D), EDM | Rostered: 71% (Yahoo) | GP: 3 (Vs.WSH, Vs.ARI, Vs.MIN, -17 SOS) | Line: 3 (w/ Broberg, PP2) 

• Bouchard appears to have found his offensive game again with 6 points and 3 goals in his last 6 games played. It’s worth noting that Thursday night against Minnesota, Bouchard played 80% PP Share, for a total of 3:54 with the man advantage. By comparison, Barrie played just 0:57 on the power play. So either Barrie is hurt, or the Oilers have finally decided to give Bouchard his turn on the top unit. Also of note, Bouchard’s tEVEH% is sitting at just 4.2%, well below the league average of 9%.📈

🎯 Dan Vladar (G), CGY | Rostered: 10% (Yahoo) | GP: 4 (Vs.ARI, Vs.MIN, @CBJ, @NJD, -11 SOS) | Role: Backup (32% Net Share)

• The Flames backup has started 3 of the last 4 games for Calgary, sporting a 1-1-1 record with a 1.96 GAA, .943 SV%, and 3.8 GSAx! Calgary has a great schedule next week with 4 matchups and 1 back-to-back. My guess is that Vladar gets 2 starts for the coming week. UPDATE: Vladar was sensational again on Saturday, posting a 2.00 GAA, .931 SV%, and 0.76 GSAA in a 5-2 win over Washington.

🎯 Philipp Grubauer (G), SEA | Rostered: 20% (Yahoo) | GP: 3 (Vs.MTL, @WSH, @FLA, -9 SOS) | Role: Tandem (26% Net Share)

• After missing about a month due to injury, Grubauer has won his first two starts, allowing just 2 goals in both victories. Martin Jones is shockingly 3-0-0 in his last 3 starts, despite posting a 5.62 GAA, .811 SV%, and -8.45 GSAA.😬 The door is certainly open for Grubauer to take over the crease. UPDATE: Grubauer was terrible on Saturday night, giving up 5 goals on 28 shots – 5.00 GAA, .821 SV%, and -2.34 GSAA…

🎯 Spencer Martin (G), VAN | Rostered: 25% (Yahoo) | GP: 3 (Vs.MTL, @SJS, Vs.MIN, -17 SOS) | Role: Starter (42% Net Share)

• It was announced on Friday that Thatcher Demko would miss 6 weeks with a lower-body injury. Spencer Martin had been outplaying Demko this season already, sporting a 6-2-1 record with a 3.21 GAA, .900 SV%. Not great numbers overall, but the net is now Martin’s to man. UPDATE: Martin was steady on Saturday, getting a win over Arizona, while posting a 1.87 GAA, .913 SV%, and 0.19 GSAA.

🎯 Craig Anderson (G), BUF | Rostered: 16% (Yahoo) | GP: 3 (@CBJ, Vs.PIT, @PIT, -7 SOS) | Role: Tandem (44% Net Share)

• In his last 4 games, the 41-year old Anderson has been very effective, posting a 2.89 GAA, .925 SV%, and 1.89 GSAx. Looking at the schedule, Anderson likely gets a road matchup with Columbus, and a home game against Pittsburgh next week. Worth a stream given Anderson’s current level of play. 

🎯 Jonathan Quick (G), LAK | Rostered: 71% (Yahoo) | GP: 4 (@OTT, @TOR, @MTL, @CBJ, -5 SOS) | Role: Starter (68% Net Share)

• With news on Wednesday that Cal Petersen was placed on waivers, Jonathan Quick assumes the starting role in Los Angeles. Not a big change for Quick quite honestly, as he has nearly 70% net share to date. The long-time King is having an up and down year, but given the right matchup, he could be worth streaming.

Edge Work | Weekly Rankings (Powered By Left Wing Lock)

New to Edge Work this season, the Hacks will provide weekly player rankings, powered by our partner, Left Wing Lock! The full weekly rankings list can be accessed here; and each episode we’ll work our way through the risers and fallers in fantasy.

Rankings Risers

📈Jason Robertson (LW), DAL | +8 | #27

• Jason Robertson is a MANIAC! Despite missing training camp due to contract negotiations, the Dallas winger now has 39 points in 24 games including 4 goals on 8 shots in 2 games this past week. Yes, his SH% is high at 21.2% and so is his tEVSH% at 12.0%. But Robertson generates 4.3 shots per game so he has plenty of inertia to ward off scoring droughts.

📈Joel Eriksson Ek (C), MIN | +17 | #43

• Ek, Eriksson Ek? What the heck? He’s put up 6 points in his last 3 games and has multiple points in 4 of his last 5 contests. He now has 21 points in 23 games after a cold, mid-November stretch. Factor in the face-off wins, hits, and power play production (8 PPP in 23 games) and you have a reliable, multi-category producer!

📈Patrick Kane (RW), CHI | +16 | #66

• Kane produced 4 points in 2 games this past week to bring his career total to 1,200 points (in 1,130 games played). While he’s currently on pace for just 71 points, his luck metrics suggest there is a fair amount of room for growth: his SH% is just 5.6%; his tEVSH% is just 7.1%; and his IPP is just 67%.

Rankings Fallers

📉Jacob Markstrom (G), CGY | -26 | #44

• Markstrom is off to a poor start this season and drops nearly 30 spots in this week’s rankings. That drop may continue as the Flames have given him just two starts in the past two weeks. With a SV% of 0.889 and his backup, Dan Vladar winning two of the last three, things are looking bleak for Markstrom owners — and the Calgary playoff hopes.

📉Victor Hedman (D), TB | -15 | #73

• Hedman is now pointless in five straight games and has just one point in the last 12. Not surprisingly, this drought coincides with losing the job on the top power play unit to Mikhail Sergachev (~ November 13). To understand how significant this drop-off is in fantasy hockey, one only need to look at Hedman’s ADP in this past Summer’s drafts: 14.5 (he was the second defenseman taken off the board in most drafts this year). While a significant regression from last year’s 85-point season was expected, 37-point pace and losing the power play job are not what we had in mind.

📉Brock Boeser (RW), VAN | -31 | #144

• Boeser was on our “Risers” list last week after earning points in nine straight games. He followed that up by going pointless in three straight and was announced as a healthy scratch for Saturday’s game against Arizona. Luck intervened; Dakota Joshua came up injured after the morning skate and Boeser was a last minute addition to the lineup — and he scored a goal. All of this happened as rumors leaked out that Boeser’s agent had been granted permission to seek out a trade.

New To The List (NTL)

📈Anthony Cirelli (C/LW), TB | NTL | #166

• Good news for Tampa Bay and bad news for everyone in the Eastern Conference — the Lightning got Anthony Cirelli back in the lineup this weekend after missing the first 23 games of the season (shoulder surgery in July). Cirelli earned two assists, took 3 shots, and won 5 face-offs in just 13 minutes of action. Cirelli might need time to get back to form, but his strong, two-way play and ability to play center or wing, likely gives him a good shot at landing in the top-six for the Lightning (potentially giving him exposure to Steven Stamkos).

Contest Announcement | Hacks Holiday!

Help the Hacks celebrate 100 episodes of fantasy fun! We truly appreciate all the support we’ve received from listeners, partners, and guests, making this first 100 episodes a genuinely enjoyable experience. All of us on the podcast enjoy creating fantasy hockey content, and will do so for as long as people will listen. To show our appreciation, we are sending one listener and a guest on a “Hacks Holiday” to Las Vegas next February! Thank you to our partners – Lucky Bastard Distillers & Left Wing Lock – for their support in making this contest possible. Winner will receive: 

• 2 tickets to a Vegas Golden Knights home game against the Tampa Bay Lightning – Saturday, February 18, 2023
• 2 round-trip tickets to Las Vegas
• 3-night accommodations at a hotel near T-Mobile Arena
• 1 year FREE subscription to the Left Wing Lock iPhone app! 

Go to the contest page – FantasyHockeyHacks.com/HacksHoliday – and follow the directions to enter the contest. 

“HACK THE CODE” Number For Episode 91: 19

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